NZC - Bradley

Marcus Alexander, EPRI

Manager, Vehicle Systems Analysis

Net Zero Cities

October 23, 2013

Current and near-term emissions impacts of

plug-in electric vehicles

2© 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

• Background

• Recent emission trends

• Future potential

• Wrap-up


• Background



• Wrap-up


How do electric vehicles fit into Net Zero Cities?

• From a transportation standpoint, electrification can

reinforce other transportation initiatives:

– Vehicle downscaling

– Car sharing / bike sharing / anything sharing

– Mass transit

– Freight delivery efficiency


How do electric vehicles fit into Net Zero Cities?

• From a transportation standpoint, electrification can

reinforce other transportation initiatives:

– Vehicle downscaling

– Car sharing / bike sharing / anything sharing

– Mass transit

– Freight delivery efficiency

• From an energy standpoint, electrification decouples

energy generation from energy use, allowing:

– Diversification

– Fleet emissions reductions


How do electric vehicles fit into Net Zero Cities

• This discussion will focus on

personal cars

• It’s important to remember

that for these, the primary

competition is between

electricity and gasoline

• The analysis looks at

‘conventional’ electricity as a

starting point


• Background



• Wrap-up


Recent emissions trends

• Grid emissions of criteria pollutants like NOx and SO2 have

decreased rapidly as regulations have tightened.

• Grid emissions of CO2 have decreased, but not as rapidly.

• It is unclear what will happen as explicit CO2 regulations

are implemented, but there is significant potential for

reductions.


Generation sources (National)


SO2 emissions reductions


NOx emissions reductions


CO2 emissions reductions


CO2 emissions reductions

50 mpg


Generation sources (NW-Central)


• Background



• Wrap-up


Future potential

• Current policy will significantly decrease NOx

emissions, SO2 emissions, and other emissions not

described above.

• CO2 emissions are expected to decrease under current

policy.

• There is the potential for significant CO2 reductions under

different policy scenarios.


Projected SO2 emissions (preliminary)


Projected NOx emissions (preliminary)


Projected CO2 emissions (preliminary)


Projected CO2 emissions (preliminary)

50 mpg


• Background

• Aggregation levels



• Wrap-up


Wrap-up

Marcus Alexander

[email protected]


Backup: Non-road applications


EPRI Non-road Electric Transportation Program

Airports

– Ground support equipment

– Ground power

Mining

– EV’s and Conveyers

Rail

– Locomotives, cranes

Agriculture

– All terrain vehicles

– Tractors

Warehouses

– Forklifts

– Truck refrigeration units

Truck Stops

– Shore Power

– On-board power

Seaports

– Cranes

– Cargo handling

– Ships/Dredges

Construction


Backup: Aggregation levels


Aggregation levels

• Looking at statewide emissions doesn’t work well; there is

too much sharing of electricity between states.

• National emissions are generally the best way to look at

trends, but doesn’t provide regional detail, which can be

quite interesting.

• For its REGEN model, EPRI created a set of region

definitions that group states into blocks that represent

electricity flows


State emissions intensity


State electricity trade


REGEN regions


REGEN regions


Backup: 2 decades of emissions


SOx


NOx


CO2


Backup: Net emissions and air

quality changes (from 2007

study)


Net Changes in Criteria Emissions Due to

PHEVs (2030 modeling)

Power Plant Emissions

• Emissions under caps

(SO2, NOx, Hg) are

essentially unchanged

• Primary PM emissions

increase (defined by a

performance standard)

Vehicle Emissions

• NOx, VOC, SO2, PM all decrease

• Significant NOx, VOC reductions at vehicle tailpipe

• Reduction in refinery and related emissions

SOx NOx VOC PM

On-Road Vehicle -7,716 -236,292 -234,342 -9,255

Refinery and Other Stationary

-23,549 -20,076 -17,804 -3,282

Distributed Upstream 0 -1,293 -103,323 -101

Power Plant -16,284 58,916 0 49,434

-400,000

-350,000

-300,000

-250,000

-200,000

-150,000

-100,000

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

Em

issi

on

s (t

on

s)

-47,549 -198,745 -355,469 36,796


Air quality impacts of PEVs

Change in 8-Hour Ozone Design Value (ppb)

PHEV Case – Base Case


-26,114 -61,508 -54,963 -188,166

PHEVs Improve Overall Air & Water Quality Reduced Deposition of Sulfates, Nitrates, Nitrogen, Mercury

Sulfate (ton) Nitrate (ton) Nitrogen (ton N) Mercury (g)

Benefit above Threshold -41,472 -45,490 -32,413 -146,370

Benefit below Threshold -12,416 -20,995 -22,784 -90,202

Disbenefit above Threshold 23,211 1,581 0 19,712

Disbenefit below Threshold 4,562 3,396 233 28,693

-250,000

-200,000

-150,000

-100,000

-50,000

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Technology

NZC - Bradley