Development of the System for Early Adaptation to Climate Change in Mongolia

Akihiro OBA1), Wanglin YAN1), Balt SUVDANTSETSEG2),

Masataka WATANABE1), Chuluun TOGTOKH2),

Bolar-Erdane LKHAMSUREN3)

1)Keio University, Japan2)National University of Mongolia, Mongolia

3)Kangwon National University, Korea

1/14

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

201020,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

45,000,000

year

Economic Liberalization

Extremely Increased Mortalityby Extreme Weather(Zud)

Decision-making fromadaptation options ineach county(Sum)

Early Adaptation

Introduction Res.Met. Con.

10 thou. headsOur Goal

CAP

Overgrazing

(Alta

nbag

ana

and

Chu

luun

, 201

0) Return to Carrying Capacity and Stable Grazing

ex. selling animalsbefore market season

Livestock Dynamics and Early Adaptation2/14

Introduction Res.Met. Con.

ObjectiveTo show a framework of early adaptation to zud through web based adaptation support system for herders and mayors

LEWS<http://glews.tamu.edu/Mongolia>

Scientific Data Did Not Put to Practical Use for Zud

Year Book National Atlas

Meteorological Data /Vegetation Data

Statistical Data GIS Data

Drought Warning Map Remote Sensing Data

Unsolved Zud Problem, in 2010

These information don’t reach to local people: Gap

Landsat Data in MongoliaDrought Maphttp://goo.gl/bdwJy

3/14

Framework: How to Use Scientific Data for Adaptation PracticeIntro. Res.Method Con.

④Interview to Central Government

Interview about Current Action after Zud and

Communication Method

Interview about Needs of Data & Support System from Herders & Mayors

Evaluation Gap between Data Needs and Current

Monitoring Data

Integrated Database from Existing Databases

System Design / Development of Interface

Sort-out of Adaptation Policy in Each Sum

User Test and Implementation

Practice of Adaptation Policy by Mayors and

Herders

Early A

daptation before Zud

Recommended Adaptation Policies with Data

①Database

③System Development

Zud Organizing Stakeholders

②Field Interview

4/14

Intro. Method

Exisitng Databases (Data Souces)

PostGISIntegrate

Vegetation, Weather Statistics

GIS RS

Development of Spatial Database

Evaluation of Database AccuracyDeveloped Databases (Data Souces)

Existing Zud Index by Authors Data2)

1)Angerer J, Sean G, Doug T (2009) Technology Transfer Part I: Implementation of the Livestock Early Warning System in Mongolia. Global Livestock CRSP, Research Brief 09-01-GOBI, Univ. of California-Davis.2)Chuluun T, Altanbagana M, Tserenchunt B (2011) Land degradation and desertification in Mongolia. Background paper for the Mongolia Human Development Report 2011.

Zud Index by Developed Database

Result of Nonparametric Analysis of Variance (Kruskal-Wallis): No Difference (p < 0.05)

Analyzed Colored Area

New

Database1)

Development of Database and Evaluate AccuracyResult Con.①Database5/14

②Field Interview

Date: 9/18 – 9/30, 2012Survey: Interview to Herders, MayorsArea: 12 Sums, 3 Aimags (5 landscape zones)

Field Interview to Herders and MayorsSteppe Zone

Gobi Zone

Forest Steppe Zone

Interview to MayorsInterview to Herders

Intro. ResultMet. Con.6/10

7

Q. What information do you need for adaptation to zud?(Open Discussion)

A. Weather Info, Zud Info, Market Price of Each Market, Non-Snowed Area(Herders) On the top of above, detail information with map(Mayors)→This information is already provided by government and academic institution. However, they had not reached to local people. Thus, sending system is needed for them.

②Field Interview Intro. ResultMet. Con.

74%4%

17%2% 2%

Gobi- Altai

44%

6%11%

17%

22%

Omnogobi

88%

13%

Tuv Weather InformationNothing in particularMining points within or around SumNews that relates ZudRangeland that is warm or has no snow during winter

68%3%

6%

15%

1%

1%6%

Total News that relates Zud

Rangeland that is warm or has no snow during winter

Market Price

Information that relates gov-ernment

7/14

8 ②Field Interview Intro. ResultMet. Con.

4%20%

70%

7%

Govi- Altai

6%

89%

6%

Omnogobi

100%

Tuv

3%14%

78%

6%

Total Community groups

Family or relatives

No advices

Sum government

Q.Who is the first for you to ask for help? Relatives? Neighbors? Or community?(Gobi-Altai:N=48, Omnogobi: N=18, Tuv:N=8)

→Current communication level among herders becomes not strong. Adaptation information should be sent to each herder directly.

8/14

9%

22%

4%54%

7% 4%

Gobi- Altai

28%

44%

6%

11%11%

Omnogobi

38%

13%

25%

25%

Tuv

17%

26%

7%

40%

4% 6%

Total Early sales or kills

Move to other range-land

Keep or buy pastures for winter

No idea

Buy livestock animals

Other

Q. How will you do in next zud if it can practice early adaptation to zud?

A. Early Sales or Kills, Keep Forage, Move to Other Rangeland→Adaptation policies are listed by based on local knowledge.

②Field Interview Intro. ResultMet. Con.9/14

Framework for Adaptation to Zud③System Development

PostgreSQL（ Database ）

Map Based Information

Attributes

Intro. ResultMet. Con.

Sum Mayors

Text Based Information・ Recommended Adaptation Policy by Based on Last Zud Damage・ Market Information・ Non-Snowed Information by Using Local Location Name

Herders

Mobile PhonePC/Smart Phone

Data Flow for Herders and Mayors

10/14

Server in Mobile Company

Intro. ResultMet. Con.

①Zud Information with Basic Information of each Sum

②Detail Information

④Visualized Estimationof Vulnerability

⑤RecommendedAdaptation Plans

③Sum’s Location with GIS Data

③System Development

Developing Interface for Mayors

11/14

Interface: Flash, Map Interface: Google Maps

Developing Interface for Herders

Recommended Adaptation Policy by Based on Last Zud Damage

Market Information

Non-Snowed Information by Using Local Location Name

Weekly Weather Information

③System Development12/14

Interface: Email

Evaluation by Central Government• System Evaluation

-Of course quite important. After test, we’d like to consider to introduce for whole country• Current method to send information to local herders and mayors

-Local TV and Radio, Traditional Communication Method• Whole framework for zud as a country scale

-Alert by Central Government, and Emergency Savings for Hazards• Current responsibility, insurance in zud information

-Nothing

Date: 1/22 – 1/23, 2013Survey: Interview to Directors of Ministry of Food and

Security, Green Development, Advisor to President

13/14

Conclusion

This study achieved Gaps between preparedness and awareness in government and herders. We developed WebGIS based system for zud adaptation to fit these gaps.

○Herders and mayors mainly need any kinds of zud information, weather information, market information, and migrate-able area to prevent from zud.

○Mayors and herders exchange their information by using mobile phone. However, their local communication became weak nowadays. It needs to send info directly to people.

This study shows a framework for adaptation to zud.○Framework of the system becomes 2 steps: detail

information with map by based on web system for mayors, and text based simple info on cell-phone system for herders.

Next Step○We need to test developed system in actual area.

Intro. ResultMet. Conclusion14/14

Thank you for attention!

Contact• Mail: perry@sfc.keio.ac.jp• Adress: Keio University Z203, Yanlab, Endo 5322, Fujisawa, Kanagawa, Japan• Tel:+81-466-49-2227• Fax:+81-466-49-2228