Public Opinion Landscape - International Affairs

International Affairs: American Public Opinion Landscape July, 2013

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. Current Political Landscape…………….……………………………….…...2

2. How Americans View the World ……………………………………..……7

3. Egypt …………………………….……………………………………………………12

4. Syria………………………………………………………………………………......17

5. Israel…………………………………………………………………………………..24

6. China……………………………………………………………....…………………27

7. Korea……………………………………………………………..………….…..…..31

Slide

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CURRENT POLITICAL LANDSCAPE

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FOREIGN POLICY ISSUES NOT THE MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEMS FACING THE U.S.

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July 10-14, 2013

Economy in general 23%

Unemployment / Jobs 19%

Dissatisfaction with government 16%

Healthcare 11%

Federal budget deficit / Federal debt 8%

Immigration / illegal aliens 6%

Education 5%

July 10-14, 2013

War (nonspecific)/Fear of war 2%

Foreign aid / focus overseas 2%

National security 1%

Terrorism 1%

International issues / problems 1%

Lack of military defense 1%

Situation/War in Afghanistan 1%

What do you think is the most important problem facing this country today?

Source: Gallup Poll, July 10-14, 2013

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Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data. Latest poll on July 24, 2013

INCREASING PESSIMISM ABOUT THE COUNTRY’S DIRECTION

RIGHT DIRECTION 28.3%

WRONG TRACK 59.8%

Steady Pessimism

The trend shows a sharp increase in

optimism between July 2012 and

November 2012. It has since leveled off

and is reversing.

OBAMA’S JOB APPROVAL ON FOREIGN POLICY HAS TAKEN A HIT RECENTLY

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Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data as of July 24, 2013

APPROVAL %

Overall approval 45%

Foreign policy 41%

The economy 40%

Healthcare 39%

Disapprove 46.4%

Approve 41.1%

Job Approval on Foreign Policy Still

Better than on the Economy &

Health Care

Job Approval on Foreign Policy

CONFIDENCE IN OBAMA HIGH, BUT DECLINING

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Source: Pew Global Attitudes Project, March 4-18, 2013

How much confidence do you have in U.S. President Barack Obama to do the right thing regarding world affairs – a lot of confidence, some confidence, not too much confidence, or no confidence at all?

74% 65%

61% 61% 57%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

% Confidence to do the right thing regarding world affairs

Change 09-13

-17

HOW AMERICANS VIEW THE WORLD

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AMERICANS LEAST FAVORABLE TOWARD IRAN; CANADA, GREAT BRITAIN, AND GERMANY, GET HIGHEST MARKS

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Source: Gallup Poll, February 7-10, 2013

Total favorable

Total unfavorable

Canada 91% 5%

Great Britain 88% 8%

Germany 85% 10%

Japan 81% 15%

France 73% 22%

India 68% 23%

Israel 66% 29%

Mexico 47% 49%

Russia 44% 50%

China 43% 52%

Venezuela 40% 47%

Total favorable

Total unfavorable

Egypt 40% 53%

Saudi Arabia 36% 58%

Cuba 34% 59%

Libya 20% 72%

Iraq 19% 76%

Afghanistan 15% 80%

Syria 14% 75%

Pakistan 14% 81%

North Korea 12% 84%

Iran 9% 87%

“No opinion” results not shown

MOST AMERICANS SEE GREAT BRITAIN, CANADA AS ALLIES

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Source: Gallup Poll, June 1-4, 2013

More see China as friend than foe

Most view Iran and North Korea as enemies of the United States

Vast majority also views Pakistan and Iraq as being unfriendly or enemies of the U.S.

AMERICANS SEE WMDs, EXTREMISTS AS MAJOR THREAT

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23%

37%

40%

44%

52%

54%

56%

59%

U.S. power and influence

Political instability in Pakistan

Global climate change

China's power and influence

Int'l financial instability

Iran's nuclear program

Islamic extremist groups

N. Korea's nuclear program

% saying each is a major threat

27%

43%

23%

6%

Great deal Fair amount Not too much Not at all

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In making international policy decisions, to what extent do you think the United States takes into account the interests of other countries around the world – a great deal, a fair amount, not too much, or not at all?

STRONG MAJORITY OF AMERICANS BELIEVES THE U.S. ACCOUNTS FOR VIEWS OF OTHER COUNTRIES WHEN MAKING INTERNATIONAL POLICY DECISIONS

think the U.S. takes the interest of other countries into account in making international policy decisions

70%


Note: “DK/Refused” not shown

EGYPT

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FAVORABLE OPINION OF EGYPT DROPS 18 POINTS SINCE 2010

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Just three years ago, 58% of Americans had a favorable opinion of Egypt. That number has fallen to 40%, while the percentage of Americans with an unfavorable view of Egypt has shot up from 29% to 53%.


AMERICANS LESS INTERESTED IN EGYPT NEWS THAN DURING ARAB SPRING, BUT MOST SEE EVENTS IN EGYPT AS CRITICAL TO U.S. INTERESTS

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How important to the interests of the United States is what happens in Egypt?

Source: Pew Research Center, July 11-14, 2013

Interest in Egypt News Has Plummeted Since the Arab Spring

Very important

Somewhat important

Not very important Don’t know

36% 47% 14% 3%

STRONG MAJORITY OF AMERICANS THINK THE U.S. CAN HAVE SOME INFLUENCE IN EGYPT

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A lot of influence

23%

Some influence

48%

Not much influence

18%

No influence

at all 6%

Don’t know

5%

How much influence do you think the U.S. can have on the current situation in Egypt?

71% think the U.S. can have at least some influence

Source: Pew Research Center, July 11-14, 2013

BUT AMERICANS OVERWHELMINGLY FEEL THE US SHOULD STAY OUT OF EGYPTIAN CIVIL UNREST

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Which of the following two statements better describes your opinion of how the U.S. should respond to the civil unrest in Egypt?

Source: United Technologies/National Journal, July 11-14, 2013

78%

16%

The U.S. should mostly stay out of eventsin Egypt and allow the people there to

resolve their differences

The U.S. should do more to try to shapethe government in Egypt and promote an

end to violence

“DK/Refused” results not shown

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SYRIA

UNFAVORABLE OPINION OF SYRIA CONTINUES TO RISE IN 2013

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AMERICANS DO NOT EXPECT THAT DIPLOMATIC EFFORTS TO SUCCEED IN ENDING CIVIL WAR

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Do you think the conflict in Syria can be successfully resolved using only economic and diplomatic efforts, or not?

Source: Gallup Poll, May 28-29,2013

No, cannot 58%

Yes, can 27%

No opinion 16%

BUT AMERICANS DO NOT SUPPORT US MILITARY INTERVENTION IN SYRIA

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Suppose all economic and diplomatic efforts fail to end the civil war in Syria. If that happens, do you think the United States should—or should not—use military action to attempt to end the conflict?

Source: Gallup Poll, May 28-29,2013

Yes, should No, shouldn't No opinion

All Americans 24% 68% 8%

Republican 31% 64% 5%

Independent 23% 70% 8%

Democrat 20% 72% 8%

NEARLY TWO-IN-THREE AMERICANS THINK US INVOLVEMENT IN SYRIA IS NOT IN NATIONAL INTEREST

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No

61%

Yes

27%

Don’t know 13%

Do you think it is in the national interest of the United States to be involved in the conflict in Syria, or not?

Source: Quinnipiac University Poll, June 28 – July 8, 2013

MAJORITY OF AMERICANS OPPOSE SENDING MILITARY AID TO SYRIAN REBELS

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Source: Quinnipiac University Poll, June 28 - July 8, 2013

DK/NA

Oppose

Support

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

13%

59%

27%

Do you support or oppose the U.S. sending arms and military supplies to anti-government groups in Syria?

HOWEVER, NEARLY HALF OF AMERICANS SUPPORT THE USE OF DRONE AND MISSILE ATTACKS ON SYRIAN TARGETS

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49%

38%

Should Should not

Source: Quinnipiac University Poll, June 28 – July 8, 2013

Do you think the United States should or should not use weapons which don’t risk American lives, such as drones and cruise missiles, to attack Syrian government targets?


ISRAEL

AMERICANS CONTINUE TO HOLD A FAVORABLE OPINION OF ISRAEL

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PLURALITY OF AMERICANS BACK INDEPENDENT PALESTINIAN STATE, BUT FAVOR PRESSURING PALESTINIANS TO MAKE COMPROMISES

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Source: Gallup Poll, Feb 7-10, 2013

Do you favor or oppose the establishment of an independent Palestinian state on the West Bank and the Gaza Strip?

44%

37%

19%

Favor Oppose No opinion

In order to resolve the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, do you think the United States should – put more pressure on the Palestinians to make the necessary compromises (or) put more pressure on the Israelis to make the necessary compromises?

48%

25%

10% 8% 10%

Morepressure on

thePalestinians

Morepressure onthe Israelis

Morepressure onboth (vol.)

Not putmore

pressure oneither (vol.)

No opinion

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CHINA

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SLIGHTLY MORE AMERICANS HOLD UNFAVORABLE OPINION OF CHINA THAN FAVORABLE

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Which comes closest to your view – China will eventually replace the U.S. as the world’s leading superpower; China has already replaced the U.S. as the world’s leading superpower; or China will never replace the U.S. as the world’s leading superpower?

AMERICANS DIVIDED ON WHETHER CHINA IS OR WILL BE WORLD’S LEADING SUPERPOWER


2008 2009 2011 2013

Will eventually replace U.S. 31% 26% 34% 36%

Has already replaced U.S. 5% 7% 12% 11%

Total has or will replace U.S. 36% 33% 46% 47%

Will never replace U.S. 54% 57% 45% 47%


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Today, which ONE of the following do you think is the world’s leading economic power?

BUT PLURALITY OF AMERICANS NOW VIEW CHINA AS WORLD’S LEADING ECONOMIC POWER


26% 33%

41% 43% 41% 44% 46% 48%

38% 38% 40% 39%

7% 4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

China

U.S.

Japan

The countries of theEuropean Union

“Other,” “None,” and “DK/Refused” results not shown

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KOREA

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AMERICANS SAY U.S. SHOULD AID SOUTH KOREA IF ATTACKED

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Source: Gallup Poll, April 2-3, 2013

If North Korea attacks South Korea, should the U.S. help defend South Korea with U.S. military forces or not?

60 years since the end of hostilities on the Korean peninsula, Americans still support defending South Korea militarily

55% Yes,

should

34% no,

should not

10% Don’t Know/ No opinion

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GPG Research

GPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative and quantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform message development and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor critical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.

GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex international affairs topics with diverse audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques to uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’ messaging and strategy.

For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:

Jason Boxt ([email protected])

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Public Opinion Landscape - International Affairs