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POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN MEKONG POWER SUPPLY (MK14) CPWF Mekong Forum – Session 12, 20 November 2013 Putting hydropower and renewables in context John Sawdon

Putting hydropower and renewables in context

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3rd Mekong Forum on Water, Food & Energy 2013. Presentation from Session 12: Alternative electricity sources and planning for the Mekong.

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Page 1: Putting hydropower and renewables in context

POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING THE ROLE OF RENEWABLES IN

MEKONG POWER SUPPLY (MK14)

CPWF Mekong Forum – Session 12, 20 November 2013

Putting hydropower and renewables in context

John Sawdon

Page 2: Putting hydropower and renewables in context

Contents

Part 1: Overview of the project

Part 2: Hydropower and renewables – substitutes or complements?

Part 3: Introduction of sessions 12 and 14

Page 3: Putting hydropower and renewables in context

Overview of the project

Page 4: Putting hydropower and renewables in context

Project objectives

Assess the potential role of renewables in the regional power generation mix

Enhance the evidence base on renewable energy potential

Identify barriers to renewable energy having a more substantial contribution to power supply

Page 5: Putting hydropower and renewables in context

Scope

Project sought to build on existing work in the region Numerous studies of renewables policy, deployment

and potential More recent strategic environmental assessment of the

power sector in the GMS

Project focused upon where it was able to add-value Country power sector contexts extremely varied (RE

and HP capacity, available resources etc.) – facing different challenges

Combination of review of international experience, secondary data collection from the region and case studies of key problems

Page 6: Putting hydropower and renewables in context

Synthesis report and issues papersReview of regional barriers to

renewables expansion and diffusion and recommendations

Meeting energy needs: hydropower compared with renewables

Case studies to ‘ground-truth’ reviewCambodia Lao PDR Thailand Viet Nam

Literature review of international experience

Renewable energy technology review Barriers to renewable energy deployment

Page 7: Putting hydropower and renewables in context

Regional reviews and papers

Vietnam case study on meeting peak demand

with solar PV

CCDE

Cambodia study on rice husk gasification

Thailand study on current policy

framework for RE and lessons for other

countries

Lao PDR study on small hydropower

Project partne

rs

Page 8: Putting hydropower and renewables in context

Hydropower and renewables – substitutes or compliments?

Technology choice in the power sector

Page 9: Putting hydropower and renewables in context

Electricity demand

The regional context of rapid economic growth and structural change is driving growing electricity demand

Sector plans over-estimate demand and underestimate potential demand-side measures (EE, DSM)

Page 10: Putting hydropower and renewables in context

0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,0000

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

GDP/Capita (constant 2005 USD)

kW

h/c

ap

ita

Korea 1971 - 2011

USA1960 - 2011

Japan 1960 - 2011

Germany1970 - 2011

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

GDP/Capita (constant 2005 USD)

kW

h/c

ap

ita

Putting regional power consumption growth in the global context

Vietnam 1984 - 2011

China 1971 - 2011

Malaysia 1971 - 2011

Thailand 1971 - 2011

Cambodia 1995 - 2011

Source: based on data from IEA 2013, World Bank 2013

Page 11: Putting hydropower and renewables in context

Technology choices in the PDPs

2012 20250

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

Nuclear Coal/ lignite GasLarge hydro Renewables Cogen/others

GW

Hydro: Increase from18.2 GW to 36 GWIncrease in number of plants from 69 to 162

Could this additional 17.8 GW of hydropowercapacity be met through alternative renewables technologies?

RE: Increase from 3.5 GW to 16.5 GW

Source: ADB TA 7764 REG

Page 12: Putting hydropower and renewables in context

Renewables potential in the LMB

TechnologyAddtional

technical LMB potential (MW)

Load factor (%)

Generation (GWh)

Wind 7,600 25 16,644 Solar 73,230 18 115,469 Geothermal 391 90 3,083 Small hydro 6,991 50 30,621 Biomass / biogas 1,602 60 8,420 Total 90,115 174,236

Additional planned HP 17,750 50 87,203

Source: Based upon ADB TA 7764 REG data

Page 13: Putting hydropower and renewables in context

Different technologies different roles

Modern power systems based upon a centralized grid structure

Large scale generation (inc. large hydro power) supplies transmission grid and large industrial users

Renewables offers a different kind of service: Smaller scale Connected to lower voltage network Producer-consumers with very small

generation units (e.g. roof top solar)

Potential niche for RE for off-grid consumers Not a significant source of demand Limited by rapid expansion of grid

Page 14: Putting hydropower and renewables in context

Comparing hydropower and renewables

Large scale Supply to

transmission grid Base load and

peaking Can have significant

storage Relatively cheap Well understood Provides ancillary

services

Small scale modular Supply to low voltage

distribution network Not dispatchable (“must

run”) (solar/wind) Seasonal and daily

variability Currently expensive Not well understood,

implications for wide scale deployment still being worked out

Hydropower (>30 MW) Renewables

Page 15: Putting hydropower and renewables in context

Comparing generation technologies

Technology Typical characteristics

Capital costs (USD/kW)

Typical energy costs (USc/kWh)

Large hydroCapacity: 30 – 18,000 +

MWLoad factor: 30 – 60%

Projects >300 MW: <2,000

Projects 30 - 300 MW: 2,000 –4,000

2–12

Small hydro Capacity: <30 MWLoad factor: 20 – 60% 1,175–3,500 5 - 40

Wind* Turbine size: 1.5–3.5 MW Load factor: 25–40%

1,750–1,770925–1,470 (China and

India)4–16

Solar PV**Peak capacity: 2.5–250

MW Load factor: 10–25%

1,300–1,950 9 - 40

Geothermal Plant size: 1–100 MWLoad factor: 60–90%

2,100 – 6,100 6 - 14

Biomass/biogas

Plant size: 1–200 MWLoad factor: 50 – 90% 800–4,500 5.5–20* On-shore; **Ground mounted utility scale Source: REN21, 2013

Page 16: Putting hydropower and renewables in context

Compliments not substitutes?

Variability of renewables can pose problems for electricity grids

Variability of wind output in April 2009 (California)

Source: http://integrating-renewables.org/

Page 17: Putting hydropower and renewables in context

High penetration renewables will require significantly different systems

http://integrating-renewables.org/

Many geographically dispersed RE or RE technologies of different types may smooth intermittency

High penetration RE (>10 – 30%) will likely require additional back-up capacity which can respond quickly to variations in renewables output: Gas Hydropower

Using conventional technologies to smooth intermittency will imply different institutional arrangements – may prove difficult for hydropower

Page 18: Putting hydropower and renewables in context

Compliments not substitutes? Hydropower’s flexibility in power generation can act to

smooth the variability of supply from renewables generation – significant challenges for the management of HP projects

Higher penetration of RE technologies may be possible because significant hydropower capacity in the region

This is not to say that more hydropower is necessarily needed to enable effective integration of renewables into grid systems - but that synergies are likely to exist

Page 19: Putting hydropower and renewables in context

Key messages

No simple choice exists between alternative renewables technologies and hydropower

Medium and large hydropower projects currently fulfill different roles in electricity systems to that which can be played by renewables

There are significant potential synergies between renewables and hydropower – although realizing them would imply a significant amount of work ensuring the institutional framework is in place

This may change as the economics, institutions and technologies of regional electricity systems change

But the outcomes of these changes are far from certain – there is still a lot to be done

Page 20: Putting hydropower and renewables in context

Enhancing the role of renewables 1. Technological potential and dynamic

cost considerations (Tim Suljada, ICEM) 2. Thailand’s experience of renewable

energy policy (Jiab Tongsopit, ERI) 3. The role of solar PV in Vietnam (Nguyen

Quoc Khanh, ICEM) 4. Bridging the gap in renewables

deployment (Alex Kenny, ICEM) 5. Impacts of small hydropower on

fisheries (Garry, Thorncroft, MK15)

Page 21: Putting hydropower and renewables in context

Thank you

Mekong Forum | 19-21 November 2013John Sawdon ([email protected])