S H O W M E S O L A R : C L E A N , L O C A L P O W E R F O R M I S S O U R I ’ S E C O N O M Y

M O S E I A 2 0 1 4 A N N U A L C O N F E R E N C E

John Farrell Director of Democratic Energy

February 1, 2014

S H O W M E

"I come from a state that raises corn and cotton and cockleburs and Democrats, and frothy eloquence neither

convinces nor satisfies me. I am from Missouri. You have got to show me."

U.S. Congressman Willard Duncan Vandiver

S H O W M E

A number of miners from the lead districts of southwest Missouri had been imported to take the places of

Colorado mine strikers. The Joplin miners…required frequent instructions. Pit bosses began saying,

"That man is from Missouri. You'll have to show him."

P O T E N T I A L

POTENTIAL PERCENT OF POWER FROM LOCAL

RENEWABLES

100% or more 50 to 100% 25 to 50% 10 to 25% 10% or less

L O C A L R E N E W A B L E P O T E N T I A L

32 states - 100%+

http://bit.ly/EnergySelfReliantStates

What percent of Missouri electricity could come from rooftop solar alone?

20%

23%

49%

42%

31%

18%

23%

24%

19%

19%28%

23%

24%

24%

26%

21%

12%

11%52%51%

49%

22%

23%

21%23%

19%

14%

38%41%

26%

35%

28%

19%

25%

21%

25%

24%

20%

22%

19%

23%

17%

23%

18% 20%

15%

24%

21%18%

Residential and Commercial roofs

L O C A L S O L A R P O T E N T I A L

POTENTIAL PERCENT OF POWER FROM LOCAL

ROOFTOP SOLAR

50% or more 25 to 50% 10 to 25% 0 to 10%

21%

21%

L O C A L S O L A R P O T E N T I A L

13,000 MW

21%

L O C A L S O L A R P O T E N T I A L

13,000 MW

$14 billion

150,000 jobs

NREL JEDI model - $3/Watt installed cost – http://cl.ly/013W2A0z2F0V

0¢

5¢

10¢

15¢

20¢

Past Now Future

Subsidized Solar Parity

Unsubsidized Solar Parity

S O L A R PA R I T Y

levelized cost over 25 yrs. – ¢ per kilowatt-hour

retail electricity price

How fast are electricity prices rising?

0¢

3¢

6¢

9¢

12¢

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

ResidentialCommercial Industrial

R A P I D LY R I S I N G AV E R A G E R E TA I L E L E C T R I C I T Y P R I C E S I N M I S S O U R I

¢ per kilowatt-hourSource: EIA

5% per year

0¢

10¢

20¢

30¢

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Residential Elec.Commercial Elec.Industrial Elec.Solar No SubsidySolar w/ ITCSolar w/ ITC+Rebate

S O L A R PA R I T Y C O M E T H

¢ per kilowatt-hour

(Missouri)

See http://www.ilsr.org/projects/solarparitymap/ for assumptions

0¢

10¢

20¢

30¢

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Residential Elec.Commercial Elec.Industrial Elec.Solar No SubsidySolar w/ ITCSolar w/ ITC+Rebate

S O L A R “ PA R I T Y ” H E R E ?

¢ per kilowatt-hour

(Missouri)

0¢

10¢

20¢

30¢

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Residential Elec.Commercial Elec.Industrial Elec.Solar No SubsidySolar w/ ITCSolar w/ ITC+Rebate

S O L A R PA R I T Y C O M E T H

¢ per kilowatt-hour

(Missouri)

Distributed Solar Potential at Parity (unsubsidized) by 2022 (residential and commercial MW)

8500

590

750

30,000

16,000

7200

11,000

1800

990

360012,000

780

7000

8200

510011,000

190026,0002400

7300

5100

360

26001100

1200

800

14004800

1800

32,000

5000

580

970

2300

4100

4400

2900

7200

6800

2800

7100

11,000

11,000

550010,000

12,000

20

1140700

4000

Percent of Sales1-5%5-10%10% or moreSource: http://www.ilsr.org/commercial-roofop-revolution/

VA L U A B L E

21%

L O C A L S O L A R VA L U E

13,000 MW

$14 billion

150,000 jobs

NREL JEDI model - $3/Watt installed cost – http://cl.ly/013W2A0z2F0V

P R O D U C I N G E L E C T R I C I T Y T O M E E T D E M A N DEl

ectr

icity

Dea

mnd

Time of day

1 AM 3 AM 5 AM 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM

Adapted from David Mills: http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2010/12/02/3081889.htm

W I T H B A S E L O A D

Baseload (coal or nuclear)

Intermediate peaking (e.g. natural gas combined cycle)

Fast peaking (e.g. gas combustion turbine)

P R O D U C I N G E L E C T R I C I T Y T O M E E T D E M A N DEl

ectr

icity

Dea

mnd

Time of day

1 AM 3 AM 5 AM 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM 7 PM 9 PM 11 PM

Adapted from David Mills: http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2010/12/02/3081889.htm

W I T H B A S E L O A D

Baseload (coal or nuclear)

Intermediate peaking (e.g. natural gas combined cycle)

Fast peaking (e.g. gas combustion turbine)

What’s the value of solar?

(¢ per kWh)

3¢5¢

8¢

12¢10¢

15¢

0¢

2¢

4¢

6¢

8¢

10¢

12¢

14¢

Energy

Gen. capacity

Environment

T&D Deferral

Loss Savings

12.8¢

(per kWh)

Source: The Value of Distributed Photovoltaics to Austin Energy and the City of Austin

Utilities value DG

Austin Energy Value of Solar Tariff

$0.00

$0.03

$0.06

$0.08

$0.11

$0.14

Brown energy replacement

Avoided transmission losses

Environmental (RPS compliance)

Avoided transmission access

Local capacity value

(per kWh)

Palo Alto CLEAN Program Utilities value DG

13.5¢

$0.00

$0.03

$0.06

$0.08

$0.11

$0.14

Brown energy replacement

Avoided transmission losses

Environmental (RPS compliance)

Avoided transmission access

Local capacity value

(per kWh)

Minnesota Value of SolarUtilities value DG

Coming soon…

Not local

0 25 50 75 100

very negative negative neutral positive very positive

L O C A L P O W E R VA L U E

Attitude towards increased use of local wind energy

L O C A L P O W E R VA L U E

Attitude towards increased use of local wind energy

Not local

0 25 50 75 100

very negative negative neutral positive very positive

-44%

+33%

+77% net approvalLocal

Ownership

Other 54%

Individuals & Farmers 46%

Germany’s Energy Revolution Still People Powered

29,000 MW

20% renewable

M I S S O U R I ’ S P R O P C W I T H L O C A L R E N E W A B L E S

34%

Yes votes 66%

S U R M O U N TA B L E B A R R I E R S

I N T E R M I T T E N C Y

A T I N Y P R O B L E M

99%

Solar 1%

E A S I LY A C C O M M O D AT E D

Geographic Dispersion Lowers Solar Backup Costs

$0.00

$0.01

$0.02

$0.03

$0.04

1 location 5 locations 25 locations

$0.001

$0.010

$0.040

$ per kWh

Implications of Wide-Area Geographic Diversity for Short- Term Variability of Solar Power (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory)

S U N I S P R E D I C TA B L E

W E AT H E R I S T O O

W E AT H E R I S T O O

Nov. 10, 2011 BOULDER, Colo.

Advanced Wind Forecasts Save Millions of Dollars for Xcel Energy

G R E AT O P P O R T U N I T Y

R E D U C E P E A K E N E R G Y

Cut peak demand

Cut bill by 20%

S AV E M O N E Y

VirginiaSolar saves money for

every Habitat house in VA

R E P L I C AT E

O R G A N I Z E

Group purchasing; then advocate for solar policy!

Mt. Pleasant Solar Cooperative

P O L I C Y

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Installed Cost per Watt

$6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00

13%15%

19%

26%

39%

5% 6%8%

12%

22%

L O C A L P E R M I T T I N G

Data from The Impact of City-level Permitting Processes on Residential Photovoltaic Installation Prices and Development Times (LBNL, 2013)

...the savings

Approx. year for residential installation* 2013 2017 2023

*From ILSR’s Rooftop Revolution reports: http://www.ilsr.org/rooftop-revolution/

As the cost of solar falls...

from

permitting ri

se

streamlined

L O C A L P E R M I T T I N G

Leading Cities

Vote Solar: Project Permit

S O L A R M A N D AT E S

• Lancaster

• Sebastapol

L O C A L E N E R G Y F I N A N C I N G

http://pacenow.org/resources/all-programs/#Missouri

VA L U E O F S O L A R

Karl Rabago

Virtual Net Metering Policies (2013)

State VNM Eligibility

California Multi-tenant properties, local governments

Colorado IOU customers; solar gardens

Connecticut Municipal customers only

Dist. of Columbia All customers

Illinois Utility choice to offer

Maine All customers

Maryland Allowed for agricultural customers, non-profit organizations, and municipal governments or their affiliates

Massachusetts All customers

Minnesota Xcel Energy customers only, awaiting rulemaking, 10/16/13

Rhode Island Local and state governments

Vermont All customers

http://www.ilsr.org/virtual-net-metering/

Active CCAs No active CCAs

C O M M U N I T Y C H O I C E

Learn more: http://www.ilsr.org/city-power-play/

F R A N C H I S E

LEVERAGEUtilitiesCities

Learn more: http://www.ilsr.org/organizing-giving-

city-minneapolis-energy-future/

L O C A L P O W E R

S A N TA F EB O U L D E R

2x cleaner Coal

More local $

T H A N K Y O U !

21%

13,000 MW

$14 billion

150,000 jobs

http://www.ilsr.org/rooftop-revolution/