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6. Dezember 2012 Slide 1 Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond Dr. Klaus Alfert

Smart Devices: Today, Tommorrow and Beyond

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Mobile smart devices are omnipresent and are gaining more importance than the traditional PC as standard equipment for private computer users. This changed our everyday life a lot. Future developments of mobile devices show the potential to turn interaction principles and usage scenarios upside down. Let us peak behind the curtain of the labs and reveal future technology trends and their implications.

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Page 1: Smart Devices: Today, Tommorrow and Beyond

6. Dezember 2012Slide 1

Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond

Dr. Klaus Alfert

Page 2: Smart Devices: Today, Tommorrow and Beyond

cell phone usage is ubiquitous

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Source: http://gs.statcounter.com/#mobile_vs_desktop-ww-monthly-200812-201210

Mobile web access is growing, yet desktops are still the big majority.

2008

-12

2009

-03

2009

-06

2009

-09

2009

-12

2010

-03

2010

-06

2010

-09

2010

-12

2011

-03

2011

-06

2011

-09

2011

-12

2012

-03

2012

-06

2012

-09

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

DesktopMobile

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Tablets and Smartphones Sales outperform Notebooks and Desktop PCs

Number of Units Sold Wordwide (in percent)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Tablets

Smartphones

Notebook

Desktop

Source: Jan. 2012: Katy uberly, Ehud Gelblum, Morgan Stanley Research

Mueller, Christoph
Bild nur für den Editoral USe vorgesehen, darf so nich ins web
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Will smart devices stay here?

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© Zühlke 2012Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond | Dr. Klaus Alfert

It is a culture issue of privacy and comfort

Early Phones

• At building entrance

• On the floor

• In the kitchen or living room

In the Sixties

• The long cable appears: make a call from your room!

6. Dezember 2012 Slide 6

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© Zühlke 2012Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond | Dr. Klaus Alfert

The Big Failure: 1 bill $ loss

The ATT Picture Phone (1970)

• Too expensive

• Too few users

• Too early

And you lose both: comfort and privacy

6. Dezember 2012 Slide 7

Source: http://www.labguysworld.com/MyPicturephone_013.jpg

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Tablets give you both:

comfort and privacy

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Processing TechnologyWelcome to the Jungle

(Herb Sutter)

http://hdwallpaper.freehdw.com/0002/nature-landscapes_hdwallpaper_waterfall-in-the-jungle_17963.jpg

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Page 11: Smart Devices: Today, Tommorrow and Beyond

© Zühlke 2012Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond | Dr. Klaus Alfert

… but frequencies reach a saturation

Desktop processores stay for 10 years between 2-3 GHz

• Exceptions are very expensive mainframe processors

• Power consumption and heat are severe problems in chip design

Source: Herb Sutter, http://www.gotw.ca/publications/concurrency-ddj.htm

6. Dezember 2012 Slide 11

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© Zühlke 2012Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond | Dr. Klaus Alfert

What do chip designers do?

Making Use of Increased Chip Size

• Many core systems

• Big caches

Problems

• The need for parallel programming to use the many cores effectively

Homogenous

multi cores

6. Dezember 2012 Slide 12

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Intel Core 2 Quad, 2007, 2 Cores x 2 Threads

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Intel i7 »Nehalem« 2008, 4 Cores × 2 Threads

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Intel i7 »Ivy Bridge«, 2011, 4 Cores, GPU

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Intel Xeon Phi, 2012, 60 Cores, 1TFlop, 1 GHz

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NVIDIA Tesla Kepler GK110, 2496 Cores, 1.1TFlop, 1.1GHz

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© Zühlke 2012Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond | Dr. Klaus Alfert

Future Developments: in 5-10 years relevant

Laser LEDs for communication between cores

• Not significantly faster (electrons are already at 70% of the speed of light)

• but without leakage currents and parasitic capacities less energy loss

• Higher bandwidth, less interference

Nano-Tubes

• Faster switching

• Reduced leaking energy

Perhaps: Quantum Computing

6. Dezember 2012 Slide 18

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© Zühlke 2012Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond | Dr. Klaus Alfert

Processors for smart devices are different

Designed for low power

• Reduced frequencies

• Reduced instruction sets (no fpu, no memory mgmt)

System-on-Chip (SoC) approaches

• Add periphery controllers

• Add additional processing units: DSP, GPU

Special Purpose Processors

• Apple’s A4 to A6 are designed for iPhone and iPad exclusively

• ARM processors at the core, but with custom enrichments

Heterogenous

Multi Cores

6. Dezember 2012 Slide 19

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Apple A6 for iPhone 5, 2012, Dual Core, 1.3 GHz

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NVIDIA Tegra 3, 2012, Quadcore, 1.4 GHz

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For many users, mobile processors are strong enough,

so why bother with cables?

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© Zühlke 2012Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond | Dr. Klaus Alfert

Notebooks are already legacy devices… and have too many cables…

Getting rid of cables!

• Wifi instead of LAN cables

• With UMTS you can leave the office space

• Bluetooth for headsets

• Inductive charging

• NFC for paying, authentication, …

6. Dezember 2012 Slide 23

Source: http://press.nokia.com/wp-content/uploads/mediaplugin/photo/reso/700-nokia-wireless-charging-pillow-by-fatboy-with-nokia-lumia-920.jpg

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Sensors

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© Zühlke 2012Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond | Dr. Klaus Alfert

From Low Power to No Power:Smart Sensors

No Power design

• Special processor design

• Get power from environment when needed

• Allows for myriads of sensors

NFC: uses induction for energy transfer

Energy harvesting

• Piezo device use mechanical energy to create electrical power

• Use temperature differences6. Dezember 2012 Slide 25

Source: http://www.houseofjapan.com/images/thumbnails/images/2012/07/TDKAnnouncesIndustrysThinnestPowerreceivingCoilforSmartphones-620x350.jpg

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© Zühlke 2012Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond | Dr. Klaus Alfert

Smart Sensors give Smart Devices new roles

Smart Devices become

• Multiprotocol Communication Hubs

• Universal Displays

• User Controls

Smart Sensors in fixed locations give even more location awareness to Smart Devices

• NFC is just the beginning

6. Dezember 2012 Slide 26

http://www-static.se-mc.com/blogs.dir/0/files/2012/01/smarttags-main-image-620x440.png

Saal, Larissa
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© Zühlke 2012Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond | Dr. Klaus Alfert 6. Dezember 2012 Slide 27

Examples for new Use-Cases: NFC with active Components

• Dynamic Access Control– Hotel Room– Office Buildings

• Reading and Buffering of Data– Detailed Error- and

Operation Logs of printers, cars, heating

– Meter Readings

• Execution of Transactions– Payment– E-Coupons

Passive Tag

Active Elemen

t

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6. Dezember 2012Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond | Dr. Klaus Alfert Slide 28

Using Smart DevicesWhat to do with all that cool Hardware?

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© Zühlke 2012Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond | Dr. Klaus Alfert

General Architecture

6. Dezember 2012 Slide 29

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© Zühlke 2012Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond | Dr. Klaus Alfert

1

Architecture Tradeoffs

Amount of Data & Processing Power

Self-Contained,DisconnectednessLow Power

Where is the sweet spot for

your app?

6. Dezember 2012 Slide 30

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© Zühlke 2012Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond | Dr. Klaus Alfert

Design Approaches

Google Maps

• Local Display of Bitmaps, all intelligence in the cloud

SIRI Design

• Local Preprocessing, Compressed Transmission, Cloud for real processing

Context-aware add-on

• Add local information on top of Maps, …

Enable Offline/Disconnected Usage

• Basic information locally available, value added service via cloud

6. Dezember 2012 Slide 31

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© Zühlke 2012Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond | Dr. Klaus Alfert

More than one device

The Architecture get’s complex

6. Dezember 2012 Slide 32

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© Zühlke 2012Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond | Dr. Klaus Alfert

Synchronization should simply work

Synchronization of several devices

• Via the cloud

• Directly, e.g. phone controls TV

• All of them

The Change in the Mindset:

• An eBook becomes a service to provide more value

What is the added value for the user?

6. Dezember 2012 Slide 33

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Convergence

http://en.memory-alpha.org/wiki/Star_Trek:_Insurrection

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What to do after inventing the iPod?

Tony Fadell

Source: http://nest.com

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The thermostat for the smartphone generation

Source: http://nest.com, http://9.mshcdn.com/wp-content/gallery/nest-v2-0/Nest%20iPhone%20App.jpg

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Smart Devices as standard UI for all devices

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Augmented Reality @ Smithsonian

http://blogs.smithsonianmag.com/ideas/2012/08/augmented-reality-livens-up-museums/

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https://itunes.apple.com/us/app/mercedes-benz-mbrace/id335276900?mt=8

Control your car with your iPhone

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Use your Smart Device as Navigation System

Source: http://www.imaedia.de/automotive/praxistest-opel-adam-infotainment-navigation-bringgo-app-infinity-sound-interview-video/

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Everything is a display for my Smart Device.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8EZCPbykfQ

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Screens in Wall-Size

http://www.techfresh.net/panasonic-life-wall/

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© Zühlke 2012Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond | Dr. Klaus Alfert

Smart Devices become invisible

Smart Devices will be incorporated in

• Glasses

• Earphones

• Clothes

• <your invention goes here>

This will change all aspects of user experience with Smart Devices!

• Increased importance of speech input and output!

6. Dezember 2012

https://plus.google.com/+projectglass/posts

Slide 43

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© Zühlke 2012Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond | Dr. Klaus Alfert

ConvergenceThe User Paradox

Smart Devices as electronic documents• All documents can be shared between

systems• But sometimes one simply wants to take a

document in each hand

This is how humans work and think: The body is an important concept for humans!

6. Dezember 2012 Slide 44

http://en.memory-alpha.org/wiki/Star_Trek:_Insurrection

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© Zühlke 2012

Smart Devices: Today, Tomorrow, and Beyond

Dr. Klaus Alfert

Making Use Of CamerasGesture Recognition

http://www.bitrebels.com/technology/kinect-hack-minority-report-user-interface-duplicated/

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The Kinect-Prototype to control an app via gestures

only

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Courtesy of Microsoft & GestSure

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Concluding Remarks

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We have some cool technologies.We can envision some standard architectures.

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fit to the culture (changing over time!)

are at the right time

fit to psychological disposition

fit to the task context (specific contexts may need different solutions)

solve a real need of the customer

adds value for the customer

But what we need are new applications that …

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Dr. Klaus AlfertEmail: [email protected]://xing.to/alferthttp://de.linkedin.com/pub/klaus-alfert/87/9b1/93a