Thinksmallcell MWC 2016

© 2016 ThinkSmallCell Ltd.

Small Cells State of the Na.on

David Chambers Senior Analyst


•  Analyst focused on Small Cells since 2008 •  Publish ar.cles and insights on web & video •  Communicate to targeted industry audience Visit ThinkSmallCell.com •  Ar5cles •  Webinar/Video •  SlideShare •  White Papers Sign-‐up for our monthly newsleBer

Sponsor ThinkSmallCell.com •  Feature ar5cles •  White Papers •  Webinars Ask for more details

About ThinkSmallCell


3G/LTE will predominate by 2020 Cisco VNI Feb 2016


Global transi.on towards LTE

Ericsson Mobility Report 2015 4GAmericas Sep 2015

North America has highest share of LTE subscribers (198M = 47%) China has highest number of LTE subs (> 380M = 28%) Europe catching up VoLTE follows slowly


Network Capacity Journey LTE + new spectrum

Refarm 2G -‐> 3G

Enable Wi-‐Fi offload at home/office

Carrier Wi-‐Fi

3G/4G Enterprise Cellular

Urban LTE Small Cell

Wi-‐Fi Homespot

LTE-‐U/LAA

VoLTE

Refarm 3G -‐> 4G

VoWi-‐Fi

Time

LTE only Enterprise/Residen.al

MuLTeFire


Where’s the money? Cellular Carrier Wi-‐Fi

Operator Revenues ~$1 Trillion <$0.001 Trillion

Largest Operators (Revenue) $91 Billion (China Mobile) $87 Billion (Verizon Wireless)

$0.12 Billion (Boingo) $0.08 Billion (iPass)

Network Equipment Spend $43 Billion (Excludes professional services)

$0.6 Billion (Infone.cs 2014)

94%

4% 2%

RAN

DAS

Small Cell

Carrier Wi-‐Fi Revenues are <0.1% of cellular Capital Spend is 1.4% of cellular Total Wi-‐Fi market size $14.8 Billion


How Wi-‐Fi Offload differs •  True Wi-‐Fi offload may be <5%[1]

–  Scenarios where user unaware traffic carried over Wi-‐Fi and uses as if cellular service

•  Voice over Wi-‐Fi capacity limited –  Priori.sa.on of voice unable to

maintain quality for ~6 calls/access point

–  Heavy home data streaming can affect voice calls

–  Wi-‐Fi has 10% voice capacity per MHz compared to LTE (Cisco[2])

[1] Amdocs State of the RAN 2016 [2] Cisco at Cambridge Wireless, ThinkSmallCell report Jan 2014

•  Devices ac.vely use Wi-‐Fi differently to cellular –  Defer photo uploads, s/w downloads to

Wi-‐Fi

•  Users ac.vely differen.ate Wi-‐Fi availability –  Choose to consume more video when

on Wi-‐Fi, for cost or speed –  As a “connec.on of last resort”


Wi-‐Fi: State of the Na.on Residen5al Enterprise/Staff Venues/Public Urban Outdoor

Massively deployed, mostly by fixed BB and Cable Variable service quality, growing demand and complexity

Massively deployed, mostly by independent SIs Robust service, .ghtly secured; poor mobility

Widely deployed, ouen by local independent SIs Variable service quality & security; poor mobility, lacks resilience

Municipal schemes commercially dubious viability Variable service quality & security

FON opening access to wide customer base.

Unlikely to interwork with Carrier Wi-‐Fi

Commercial conflict between Carrier Wi-‐Fi/Passpoint & direct customer service

Passpoint would be key for wider take-‐up


LTE Features for Capacity Gain Radio Feature Capacity Gain Dependencies

Device Sync Latency

Evolu.on NAICS 6-‐10% ✔ ✔ ✔

MIMO 4x2 MIMO 23%

4x4 MIMO 77% ✔

Intra-‐site CoMP 10-‐25% ✔

Small Cells 3 x ePico 350%

eICIC/FeICIC 320% ✔ ✔ ✔

Smart FeICIC 350% ✔ ✔ ✔

Dual Connec.vity 32% ✔ ✔ ✔

LTE-‐U 200% ✔

Mul.-‐Sector 6 Sector 80%

Broadcas.ng eMBMS Service dependent ✔ ✔

Source: Erol Hepsaydir, Three UK, HetNet World 2015


Small Cells: State of the Na.on Residen5al Enterprise Urban Rural

Few new deployments but some surprises (T-‐Mobile USA) Millions embedded at Free France, saving spectrum/roaming fees

Most lucra.ve segment. Split between small/med and med/large Growing credibility for larger buildings

Technically viable but held back by logis.cs, planning vs alterna.ves Likely to be LTE only, targewed zones

Increased interest although small part of total market Higher RF power and 3G/LTE required

Poten.al for up.ck with 4G only VoLTE

3G/LTE important today, LTE for future Neutral host

Logis.cs and 3rd party deployment

Regulatory drive for coverage targets


DAS: State of the Na.on Residen5al Enterprise/Staff Venues/Public Urban Outdoor

Rarely found except in some larger apartment complexes/mixed use buildings

Larger buildings, typically 2G/3G Newer systems incorporate LTE

Mul.-‐operator Compa.bility with macro networks High capacity

ODAS where fibre plen.ful Allows neutral hosts to address urban zones

Would require alterna.ve product architecture

Upgrading to LTE considered expensive LTE-‐U/LAA less appropriate

Specialist engineering, ongoing evolu.on

Competes with RRH from RAN vendors


Remote Radio Heads •  “Distributed basesta.ons” including RRH and similar (e.g. Radio DOT, Lampsite)

•  Brings radio heads back into scope of RAN equipment vendors

Benefits •  Compa.ble with macrocell layer

(where present) •  Compa.ble with exis.ng

opera.onal processes

Disadvantages •  Underlays 3rd party macrocells in

some regions •  Processes may need to differ •  Typically locked to single network

operator


Enterprise Wireless Choices Mul.-‐Operator Single Operator*

*Mul.-‐Operator possible via MORAN/MOCN or installing parallel/duplicate kit

Wi-‐Fi Small Cell

RRH DAS

MuLTeFire Small Cell


Neutral Hosts become arbiter

•  Aggregate large numbers of small installa.ons

•  Connect to mul.ple operators

…etc.


Take-‐aways •  Wi-‐Fi –  Cordless service inside the home/office – No money in Carrier Wi-‐Fi today

•  Mobile Capacity = LTE + Small Cells –  3G/4G mul.-‐mode indoor first –  VoLTE when mature

•  Growing focus on Enterprise –  Shared costs with building owners – Neutral host business model

Technology

Thinksmallcell MWC 2016