A Fast-Changing World Needs Agile Policies

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Describes a new approach for rapidly developing policies and strategies to keep pace with a fast-changing world.

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A Fast-Changing World Needs Agile Policies

Albert Simard Defence R&D CanadaPresented toINFONEX Strategic Policy Development Ottawa, ON Nov 27-28, 2013

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Outline

New Reality

Probing

Sense-Making

Adapting

M. C. Escher (1957)

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New Reality

Accelerating changeComplex worldAgile framework

Reality

Traditional Policy Time Scale

Old Policy Policy Change New Policy

5-7 years 2-3 years 5-7 years

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Reality

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Traditional Policy Change Create UrgencyEstablish CoalitionDevelop PlanProvide IncentivesEmpower ActionEarly SuccessMaintain MomentumInstitutionalize

Kotter (2002)

Adapting

Like great ships, government agencies are slow to change direction

Technology Adoption

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Reality

Time to Reach 50 Million UsersMillion Users

50

40

30

20

10

0

7

0 250 500 750 1000 1250 1500 1750 2000 2250 Days

Reality

21st Century Challenges

KnowledgeEconomy

DiverseWorkforce

InformationSociety

SustainableDevelopment

FiniteResources

InternationalPartnerships

GlobalizationAccelerating Change

Life-LongLearning

ComplexTechnologies

CitizenEngagement

Safety & Security

US National Science Foundation (2001) 8

Reality

Responding to Change

Agile

Traditional

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Reality

Agile Approach to Policy

Adapt (rapid)

Probe (continuous)

Sense-Making

(pro-active)

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Reality

Modular Approach

Detect Pattern

Environmental Change Life Cycle

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Data & Knowledge

None

Start Finish

Full

Time

Origin

Detection

Early

Middle

Late

Too Late

Adaptation Window

Adaptation Decision Framework Importance of pattern: low (1), medium (2), high (3)

Existing knowledge: inadequate (1), partial (2), adequate (3)

Available data: inadequate (1), partial (2), adequate (3)

Resource implications: high (1), medium (2), low (3)

Risks of inaction: low (1), medium (2), high (3)

Likely impact: minimal (1), moderate (2), significant (3)

6-11points - DEFER; 12-17 points - MAYBE; 18-24 points - ACT

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No hard answers; judgement and experience are necessary

Traditional Policy Development Cycle

(Australian Policy Handbook)

Issue Identification

Environmental Scan

Strategy Development

Consultation

Coordination

Decision

Implementation

Evaluation

Organization

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Reality

Agile Policy Framework

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Probing

AdaptingSense- MakingSense- Making

Reality

(What’s happening?)

(What does it mean?)(What do we do?)

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Outline

New Reality

Probing

Sense-Making

Adapting

M. C. Escher (1957)

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Probing (Evaluation, Emerging Trends) Passive (monitoring, social networks)

Active (intelligence, soliciting)

Internal (documents, expertise)

Probing

Environmental MonitoringCyberspace

MediaPublished Literature

Conferences Experience

Individuals

Ad hoc

Communities of practice

Practitioners

AccessAttend

Participate

SolicitReceive

Discover

Review

Monitor

search filter scan

Research

Analysis

Office apps.

Validation

Document

Store Repository

ExpertiseCorroborate

Share Incentives

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(DRDC Knowledge Services, 2012)

Probing

Monitoring Cyberspace

Anticipate emerging issue

Anticipate stakeholder actions

Discover new stakeholders

Discover potential partners

Learn from others

Learn about new technology

Monitor institutional changes

Monitor public opinion

Find useful information

Detect new risks

Only way to keep up with accelerating changeOnly way to keep up with accelerating change

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Social Networks

Probing

Monitoring must be focussed

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Intelligence SourcesPublic DomainGovernment DocumentsAnnual reportsAnalyst reportsPublic databasesSpeechesBroadcast media Print mediaTrade associationsWorld-Wide Web

Non-Public Domain

Change of statusHuman intelligenceTrade showsAsk employeesAsk clientsObservationAerial survey

Probing

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Source DiversityIncreased visibility, awareness, or influenceSeen as active and competent playerFeedback on user needs and applicationsLeverage the value of organizational resourcesIncrease partnership and business opportunitiesOrganizational business or mandateInfluencing attitudes, opinions, or behavior Advocating a position, agenda, or policy Intervening in stakeholder or social activity

Passive

Active

Probing

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Soliciting Inputs

Client interviewsConsultationsExpert opinionStakeholder surveysUser feedbackWorkshopsColloquia

Probing

Internal Inputs

Environmental Monitoring

Produce Intelligence

Acquire Content

Mobilize Knowledge

Operations

Corporate Reporting

Experience

Futures Analysis

Individual Learning

Create Knowledge

CaptureOffice apps. Repository

Publish

Sense-Making

Share incentives

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(DRDC Knowledge Services, 2012)

Probing

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Sharing Attributes

Incentives and motivation

Trust and safety

Organizational culture

Content security

Individual privacy

Different expertise

Control and hoarding

Large distances

Different languages

Probing

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Outline

New Reality

Probing

Sense-Making

Adapting

M. C. Escher (1957)

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Sense-Making

AnalysisSynthesisInterpretationValidation

Sense-Making

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Analysis Spectrum

mathematics, logic, proof

science, engineering, technology

statistics, data, facts, measurement

collaboration, validation, management

expertise, experience, judgement

opinion, perception, bias

belief, emotion, values

Quantitative (irrefutable)

Qualitative (no evidence)

Sense-Making

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Analysis Principles• Resources are required: time, effort, expertise, funding,

capacity, technology, data, knowledge • Complexity is inherent: strategic analysis is non-linear,

involves feedback, iterations, delays, and uncertainty• Methods are known: techniques are well-understood;

extensive literature for most disciplines• Management perspectives: understanding, trust,

confidence, liabilities, risk, externalities

Analysis combines science & computers; skill & technique, judgement & experience; insight & intuition.

Sense-Making

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Two Approaches

Analysis: Using deduction to differentiate and study data, information, or knowledge to deduce deeper or more precise meaning or understanding. (Scientific approach)

Synthesis: Using induction to integrate and study many processes as a whole to infer higher-level meaning or understanding. (Systems approach)

People tend to be good at analysis or synthesis; few are good at both.

Sense-Making

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Analysis Is a Human Activity Collect information from people and organizations.

Organize data based on individual perspectives.

Classify issues based on human understanding.

Select analytical methods using expert knowledge.

Interpret results through cognitive reasoning.

Validate results through dialogue and collaboration.

Sense-Making

Experience and judgement are essential

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Community of Practice

Government, department

Sector, branch, division

Policy analysts, regulators

Finance, purchasing

Scientists, lawyers

Information technologists

People with common expertise, skill, or profession (position, work, colleagues)

People with common expertise, skill, or profession (position, work, colleagues)

Sense-Making

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Communities Validate Knowledge

Knowledge exists in the minds of people. Experience is as important as formal knowledge.Knowledge is tacit as well as explicit. Transferring tacit knowledge is more effective through human interaction.Knowledge is social as well as individual. Today’s knowledge is the result of centuries of collective research.Knowledge is changing at an accelerating rate. It takes a community of people to keep up with new concepts, practices, and technology.

Sense-Making

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Communities Emphasize Collaboration

Dialogue, conversations in groups Sharing, exchanges among peersCandor, freedom of expressionTrust, safety, honestyTransparency, opennessAgreed rules of conductDiversity, flexibility, outliersEquality, meritocracy of ideasCollective, not individual benefit

Sense-Making

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Harvesting Community Outputs Service Center: repository for community outputs; interface with communities, minimize duplication, inform communities

Leader: transfer community outputs; Identify emerging trends, prioritize issues

Sponsor: endorse community outputs; bridge between the community and the organization, provide support, minimize organizational barriers

Champion: ensure adoption of community outputs; communicate purpose, promote the community

Sense-Making

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Outline

New Reality

Probing

Sense-Making

Adapting

M. C. Escher (1957)

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AdaptingStructure (planning, integrating, interaction)

Approve (decision, authorizing)

Implement (steps, incentives, sustaining)

Adapting

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Planning ChangeCreate visionDetermine objectives Establish milestonesSchedule work

Integrate changesSocial Interaction

Document results Recommend action

Adapting

Integrating ChangeValidated

Inputs

People Governance Processes Technology

Content, Services

Integrated Change

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Adapting

Social Interaction Framework

GoalsCompatible Conflicting

Interests

Mutual

AutonomousCompetitiondefence or victory aggressive approach no trust secretive, hostile

Collaborationjoint or peer production partnership approach high trust diverse, synergistic

Negotiationmutual agreement adversarial approach nominal trust structured, formal

Sharingleverage knowledge passive approach moderate trust benign, supportive

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Adapting

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Decision Maker PerspectivesAccountable for actionsSituational pressureBroader view than analysisDepth of understanding Involvement in planningConfidence in resultsRisk tolerancePrevious experienceBelief systemEmotions

Adapting

DRDC Environmental Management System

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“Continual” Improvement

Environmental Policy

Planning

Implementation

Checking

Management Review

Annual Report

Event response

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Main MessagesTraditional policy approaches are too slow in a rapidly-changing world.

Continuous probing monitors effectiveness and detects emerging patterns.

Sense-making interprets and validates patterns and trends.

Agile policies are essential to keeping pace with a dynamic world.

albert.simard@drdc-rddc.gc.ca

http://cradpdf.drdc-rddc.gc.ca/PDFS/unc121/p536618_A1b.pdf

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