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The mood among Irish consumers is positive but not bullish as we reach the end of 2014...
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1 Economic Recovery Index
Economic Recovery Index An Amárach Research Briefing
December 2014
Includes additional analyses by:
main bank, mobile network, supermarket, electricity provider
© Amárach Research
2 Economic Recovery Index
A Mixed Year End
Our final edition of the Economic Recovery
Index for 2014 finds Irish consumers at
something of a crossroads – the mood is a lot
more positive than even a year ago, but hasn’t
improved much in the past few months.
We have added in a more detailed analysis
this month showing differences in outlook
among customers of the main banks,
supermarkets, mobile phone networks and
electricity suppliers to help you plan for 2015.
We’re seeing some positive trends – reduced
price sensitivity, for example – but also some
worrying data, such as the incidence of
loneliness, especially among under 25s.
But it is Christmas, a season for looking back
in gratitude and forward in hope, so do enjoy
the break and we’ll see you in 2015.
3 Economic Recovery Index
The Emotional Recovery
We have been reporting our monthly
Economic Recovery Index since April 2009.
We set out over five years ago to assess the
psychological impact of the recession and to
chart our ‘emotional progress’ towards
recovery alongside our ‘economic progress’.
This report summarises our Economic
Recovery Index results from April 2009 to
December 2014.
The most recent fieldwork was conducted
during 2nd-10th December 2014 inclusive.
See how bad it was four years ago: http://www.slideshare.net/amarach/aib-amarach-recovery-indicator-December-2010
Economic Recovery Index
5 Economic Recovery Index
Using the answers to the question on ‘stages of recovery’ we have created the Economic
Recovery Index, which ranges from 0 to 100 (0 = deep recession; 100 = back to peak).
Our Index has remained near its record level:
The Economic Recovery Index
Source: Amárach Research, December 2014
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Ap
r '0
9
Jun
Ju
ly
Au
g Se
pt
Oct
N
ov
Dec
Ja
n'1
0
Feb
M
ar
Ap
r M
ay
Jun
e
July
A
ug
Sep
t O
ct
No
v D
ec
Jan
'11
Fe
b
Mar
A
pr
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g Se
pt
Oct
N
ov
Dec
Ja
n '1
2
Feb
M
ar
Ap
r M
ay
Jun
e
July
A
ug
Sep
t O
ct
No
v D
ec
Jan
'13
Fe
b
Mar
A
pr
May
Ju
ne
Ju
ly
Au
g Se
pt
Oct
N
ov
Dec
Ja
n'1
4
Feb
M
ar
Ap
r M
ay
Jun
e
July
A
ug
Sep
t O
ct
No
v D
ec
The ERI has leveled off in the last three months of 2014…
6 Economic Recovery Index
A Matter of Measurement
Nov ’14: 17% Dec ’14: 16%
Nov ’14: 29% Dec ’14: 31%
Nov ’14: 37% Dec ’14: 38%
Nov ’14: 16% Dec ’14: 13%
Nov ’14: 2% Dec ’14: 1%
Every month we survey a representative, online sample of 1,000 adults and ask them to tell us
which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’ (listed below)
A solid majority of Irish people continue to say that the economy is improving:
7 Economic Recovery Index
ERI Summary Table
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
% choosing each statement:
%
The economic
situation in
Ireland is
getting worse
The economic
situation is bad
but has
stabilized
The economic
situation is bad
but showing a
few signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
getting better
and showing
clear signs of
improvement
The economic
situation is
good and
almost fully
recovered
Economic
Recovery
Index
Dec-09 49 31 18 2 0 18.3
Dec-10 65 20 14 1 0 12.0
Dec-11 59 24 15 2 0 15.1
Dec-12 49 28 20 3 0 19.5
Dec-13 24 36 31 8 1 31.2
Nov-14 17 29 37 16 2 38.9
Dec-14 16 31 38 13 1 37.9
the ERI is over three times higher than in December 2010
8 Economic Recovery Index
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
(by sex, age, Dublin, class)
Source: Amárach Research, December 2014
December 2014 TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
1001 495 506 120 220 200 170 290 279 478 524
The economic situation
in Ireland is getting
worse 16% 15% 16% 15% 12% 20% 18% 14% 13% 11% 20%
The economic situation
is bad but has stabilized 30% 31% 29% 31% 30% 30% 32% 29% 29% 30% 30%
The economic situation
is bad but showing a
few signs of
improvement
36% 33% 39% 31% 36% 33% 34% 41% 34% 40% 33%
The economic situation
is getting better and
showing clear signs of
improvement
13% 15% 10% 12% 13% 14% 9% 14% 18% 15% 11%
The economic situation
is good and almost fully
recovered from the
recession
1% 2% * 1% 2% 1% 1% 1% 2% 1% 1%
ERI Score 37.9 39.3 36.5 34.1 39.7 36.6 34.3 41.0 41.7 41.5 34.7
Progress Along Recovery Path – I
9 Economic Recovery Index
Progress Along Recovery Path – II
Which one statement ‘best describes the economic situation in Ireland right now’?
(by main bank, mobile network, supermarket, electricity provider)
Source: Amárach Research, December 2014
December 2014 TOTAL AIB Bank of
Ireland
Voda
fone Meteor Three Tesco Dunnes Aldi
Electric
Ireland Airtricity
1001 370 270 332 161 107 320 158 243 524 222
The economic situation
in Ireland is getting
worse 16% 15% 14% 14% 15% 15% 14% 21% 18% 17% 14%
The economic situation
is bad but has stabilized 30% 31% 28% 31% 34% 25% 28% 32% 33% 29% 30%
The economic situation
is bad but showing a
few signs of
improvement
36% 33% 41% 39% 38% 36% 38% 25% 36% 38% 38%
The economic situation
is getting better and
showing clear signs of
improvement
13% 16% 12% 12% 9% 18% 14% 15% 10% 12% 14%
The economic situation
is good and almost fully
recovered from the
recession
1% 2% * 1% 1% 0 2% 2% 0 1% 1%
ERI Score 37.9 39.4 38.5 39.2 36.9 39.5 40.7 35.7 35.5 38.2 39.7
Consumer Impact
11 Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table I
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
Ireland will be
through the
worst of the
recession in
12 months
time
I feel I am
financially
comfortable
enough to
make it
through the
recession
I am optimistic
in spite of the
current
economic
situation
Right now it
seems like the
recession is
affecting other
people more
than it is
affecting me
Dec-09 43 45 51 56
Dec-10 23 34 41 45
Dec-11 22 33 39 43
Dec-12 26 32 39 43
Dec-13 37 40 49 43
Nov-14 40 38 52 39
Dec-14 40 42 52 43
people remain quite resilient at the end of 2014…
12 Economic Recovery Index
Comfortable Year End – I
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by sex, age, Dublin, class):
“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”
Source: Amárach Research, December 2014
December 2014 TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
1001 495 506 120 220 200 170 290 279 478 524
Strongly Agree 12% 13% 11% 11% 14% 7% 10% 15% 17% 16% 8%
Slightly Agree 30% 27% 33% 35% 27% 25% 18% 41% 29% 35% 26%
Neither/Nor 16% 19% 13% 14% 21% 23% 13% 10% 15% 15% 17%
Slightly Disagree 21% 20% 23% 21% 20% 22% 26% 20% 22% 20% 23%
Strongly Disagree 18% 20% 15% 13% 15% 23% 28% 12% 14% 12% 23%
13 Economic Recovery Index
Comfortable Year End – II
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement (by main bank etc):
“I feel I am financially comfortable enough to make it through the recession”
Source: Amárach Research, December 2014
December 2014 TOTAL AIB Bank of
Ireland
Voda
fone Meteor Three Tesco Dunnes Aldi
Electric
Ireland Airtricity
1001 370 270 332 161 107 320 158 243 524 222
Strongly Agree 12% 11% 12% 11% 11% 10% 13% 17% 10% 11% 13%
Slightly Agree 30% 32% 34% 30% 25% 35% 33% 32% 27% 32% 31%
Neither/Nor 16% 18% 12% 17% 18% 18% 16% 13% 19% 15% 19%
Slightly Disagree 21% 22% 23% 21% 26% 18% 22% 18% 24% 21% 19%
Strongly Disagree 18% 15% 15% 19% 16% 18% 14% 15% 17% 18% 17%
14 Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table II
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
I am more
relaxed about
spending
money than I
was a few
months ago
I am saving a
lot more than
before
because of the
recession
My main
financial priority
is to pay off my
debts as quickly
as possible
I would be
happy to
borrow money
from a bank if I
need to
Dec-09 17 26 57 29
Dec-10 11 23 58 21
Dec-11 14 27 56 22
Dec-12 15 22 54 22
Dec-13 22 26 55 26
Nov-14 26 24 54 28
Dec-14 26 23 55 23
there has been a sharp fall back in % willing to borrow
15 Economic Recovery Index
More Relaxed – I
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago”
Source: Amárach Research, December 2014
December 2014 TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample 1001 495 506 120 220 200 170 290 279 478 524
Strongly Agree 6% 6% 6% 10% 9% 5% 4% 5% 8% 7% 5%
Slightly Agree 19% 19% 20% 23% 20% 19% 14% 21% 22% 22% 17%
Neither/Nor 22% 22% 21% 14% 22% 24% 19% 23% 22% 23% 21%
Slightly Disagree 25% 25% 25% 25% 25% 23% 24% 28% 26% 25% 25%
Strongly Disagree 26% 26% 25% 21% 22% 28% 37% 22% 20% 21% 29%
16 Economic Recovery Index
More Relaxed – II
% of Irish adults who agree/disagree with the statement:
“I am more relaxed about spending money than I was a few months ago”
Source: Amárach Research, December 2014
December 2014 TOTAL AIB Bank of
Ireland
Voda
fone Meteor Three Tesco Dunnes Aldi
Electric
Ireland Airtricity
Weighted Sample 1001 370 270 332 161 107 320 158 243 524 222
Strongly Agree 6% 8% 5% 6% 7% 5% 6% 6% 8% 6% 7%
Slightly Agree 19% 20% 21% 20% 23% 20% 21% 18% 16% 19% 22%
Neither/Nor 22% 23% 21% 18% 22% 22% 22% 27% 21% 25% 17%
Slightly Disagree 25% 24% 26% 26% 25% 25% 26% 27% 25% 24% 25%
Strongly Disagree 26% 23% 26% 27% 22% 27% 23% 21% 29% 25% 27%
17 Economic Recovery Index
Consumer Sentiment Summary Table III
% agree strongly/slightly with selected statements:
%
I always buy the
lowest price
products or
services
I am always on the
lookout for
opportunities to
switch to cheaper
suppliers
I have more choice
than before when it
comes to products
and services
I always buy Irish
when I can
Apr-13 57 71 52 52
May-13 58 69 54 54
Jun-13 55 70 55 51
Jul-13 56 70 52 53
Aug-13 57 70 53 53
Sep-13 59 72 53 54
Oct-13 58 69 52 51
Nov-13 56 69 55 51
Dec-13 54 68 54 53
Jan-14 59 74 56 54
Feb-14 56 70 57 52
Mar-14 57 68 56 48
Apr-14 56 69 54 50
May-14 60 72 55 51
Jun-14 55 70 58 52
Jul-14 58 72 58 48
Aug-14 56 71 60 51
Sep-14 55 74 61 53
Oct-14 56 68 58 51
Nov-14 58 67 57 52
Dec-14 47 64 57 50
Mood of the Nation
19 Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – I
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to December 2014
Source: Amárach Research, December 2014
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Apr
'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'1
0
Fe
b
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
A
ug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'1
1
Fe
b
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
A
ug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'1
2
Fe
b
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
A
ug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'1
3
Fe
b
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
A
ug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'1
4
Fe
b
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
A
ug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Enjoyment Happiness Stress Worry
20 Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – II
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday?
% saying Yes: April 2009 to December 2014
Source: Amárach Research, December 2014
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Apr
'09
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'1
0
Fe
b
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'1
1
Fe
b
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'1
2
Fe
b
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'1
3
Fe
b
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan'1
4
Fe
b
Mar
Apr
May
June
July
Aug
Sept
Oct
Nov
Dec
Anxiety Sadness Pain Anger
21 Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – III
Source: Amárach Research, December 2014
December 2014 TOTAL Male Female 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ Dublin ABC1
F50+
C2DE
F50-
Weighted Sample 1001 495 506 120 220 200 170 290 279 478 524
Enjoyment 50% 49% 50% 43% 48% 44% 41% 62% 50% 52% 47%
Happiness 46% 42% 50% 43% 47% 41% 39% 53% 43% 48% 43%
Stress 40% 36% 44% 51% 40% 45% 45% 28% 37% 42% 38%
Worry 33% 31% 34% 37% 35% 40% 35% 23% 34% 32% 34%
Anxiety 26% 24% 28% 36% 28% 24% 29% 19% 27% 25% 26%
Physical Pain 21% 17% 25% 18% 20% 17% 24% 25% 18% 18% 24%
Boredom 20% 20% 19% 36% 25% 16% 21% 10% 23% 19% 20%
Sadness 19% 17% 22% 28% 19% 19% 17% 18% 18% 20% 19%
Loneliness 16% 15% 17% 26% 19% 17% 14% 10% 17% 16% 16%
Anger 13% 14% 12% 16% 17% 13% 10% 10% 13% 13% 12%
Fear 9% 9% 8% 13% 12% 11% 6% 5% 10% 9% 9%
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes:
22 Economic Recovery Index
The Mood of the Nation – IV
Source: Amárach Research, December 2014
December 2014 TOTAL AIB Bank of
Ireland
Voda
fone Meteor Three Tesco Dunnes Aldi
Electric
Ireland Airtricity
Weighted Sample 1001 370 270 332 161 107 320 158 243 524 222
Enjoyment 50% 51% 52% 50% 52% 43% 48% 52% 51% 50% 52%
Happiness 46% 47% 43% 50% 46% 43% 44% 42% 49% 46% 48%
Stress 40% 36% 41% 41% 39% 46% 38% 42% 42% 40% 36%
Worry 33% 28% 40% 36% 34% 36% 33% 31% 30% 34% 29%
Anxiety 26% 25% 28% 26% 25% 28% 24% 21% 29% 24% 23%
Physical Pain 21% 17% 23% 20% 20% 20% 21% 21% 22% 23% 20%
Boredom 20% 21% 19% 18% 24% 29% 20% 20% 22% 18% 18%
Sadness 19% 18% 20% 22% 20% 15% 19% 17% 18% 18% 21%
Loneliness 16% 16% 18% 17% 18% 19% 20% 14% 15% 16% 13%
Anger 13% 11% 15% 15% 13% 14% 13% 12% 14% 12% 14%
Fear 9% 7% 10% 11% 9% 8% 8% 9% 9% 7% 13%
Did you experience any of these feelings a lot of the day yesterday? % saying Yes:
Amárach Outlook
24 Economic Recovery Index
Ready for Recovery?
Our survey at the end of 2014 finds Irish
consumers in a ‘fragile’ mood, with many still
waiting for the recovery to show up in their
bank accounts.
Emotional resilience remains strong – though
note the worrying level of loneliness among
under 25s – and debt concerns prevail.
This is the last edition of the Economic
Recovery Index for 2014, so we wish all our
readers a Happy Christmas and a Peaceful
and Prosperous New Year.
For more on the ERI see: http://www.amarach.com/resources/economic-recovery-index.htm
we ask better questions
so you get better answers
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Trends Report
e. info@amarach.com
t. 01 410 5200
w. www.amarach.com
b. www.amarach.com/blog
t. twitter.com/AmarachResearch
s. slideshare.net/amarach/
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