Becoming Your Own Futurist

Becoming Your Own Futurist

Paul Schumann

Glocal Vantage Inc.

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Topics

The FutureTypes of FuturesInsight Into the FutureKnowing YourselfInsight & Creativity

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Topics

The FutureTypes of FuturesInsight Into the FutureKnowing YourselfInsight & Creativity

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Types of Futuring

Future 1

Future 2

Today

Normative

Projective

What are possible futures?Can we find a path to get to those futures?

What is the trend?What may affect the trend?What are the potential futures?

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Topics

The FutureTypes of FuturesInsight Into the FutureKnowing YourselfInsight & Creativity

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The Four Futures

SimpleCyclicalChaoticComplex

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The Four Futures

SimpleCyclicalChaoticComplex

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The Four Futures

SimpleCyclicalChaoticComplex

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The Four Futures

SimpleCyclicalChaoticComplex

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The Four Futures

SimpleCyclicalChaoticComplex

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The Four Futures

SimpleCyclicalChaoticComplex

First Industrial Revolution (1760 - 1860)

Second Industrial Revolution (1860 - 1950)

Third Industrial Revolution (1950 - 2020)

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The Four Futures

SimpleCyclicalChaoticComplex

Nonproductive (25 years)

Counter Productive (25 years)

Hyperproductive and Transformational (25 years)

Technology Life Cycle

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The Four Futures

SimpleCyclicalChaoticComplex

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The Four Futures

SimpleCyclicalChaoticComplex

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EPIC 2015

EPIC by Robin Sloan & Matt Thompson, http://www.albinoblacksheep.com/flash/epic (2005)

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The Four Futures

SimpleCyclicalChaoticComplex

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The Four Futures

SimpleCyclicalChaoticComplex

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

3.25 3.75 4.25 4.75 5.25 5.75 6.25 6.75

Earthquake Magnitude

Nu

mb

er

of

Ea

rth

qu

ak

es

Earthquakes

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Topics

The FutureTypes of FuturesInsight Into the FutureKnowing YourselfInsight & Creativity

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Four Causes of Reality

First Cause: MaterialSecond Cause: FormalThird Cause: EfficientFourth Cause: Final (Purpose)

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Driving Forces

DemographicSociopoliticalTechnologicalEconomic

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Demographic

Population GrowthAge DistributionMulticulturalism

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Population GrowthPopulation of US

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Year

Po

pu

lati

on

(M

illi

on

s)

Actual

Projection

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Age Distribution

Source: Snyder, et al, “The Strategic Context of Educationin America 2000 - 2020

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Sociopolitical

OpennessSmart MobsInnovation

CommonsGender EquityDecentralizati

onPluralismParadoxicalNon-Career

Lives

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Technological

Infocom Technologies Internet Personal

Devices Wireless

Digital Location

Sensors Embedded

Infocom Devices

New Software Applications

GenomicsNanomaterialsNanomachines

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Internet Users

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

Year

Inte

rnet

Use

rs W

orl

dw

ide

(Mil

lio

ns)

eTForecasts (2000)

Computer Industry Almanac (2000)

Computer Industry Almanac (1999)

Tapscott (1996)

US DOC (1999)

Trend Analysis (2001)

World's Population

World's Population

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Economic

GrowthInnovationServiceVirtual IntegrationGlocalityGames

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Nature of Work

Source: Snyder, et al, “The Strategic Context of Educationin America 2000 - 2020

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Economic Maturation of Technology

Nonproductive (25 years)Counter Productive (25 years)Hyperproductive and

Transformational (25 years)

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Developing Foresight

Inputs

Techniques

Output

Decision/Question

QualitativeQuantitativeTimeProbability

Planning Implementation

AssumptionsDataInsightJudgement

ProjectiveNormative

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Techniques to Improve Foresight

SurveillanceTrend

AnalysisExpert

OpinionIntegrative

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Techniques to Improve Foresight

SurveillanceTrend

AnalysisExpert

OpinionIntegrative

ScanningMonitoringTracking

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Surveillance

ScanningMonitoringTracking

Moving away

Moving tangentially

Moving towards

Not moving, getting larger

Not moving, getting smaller

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Techniques to Improve Foresight

SurveillanceTrend

AnalysisExpert

OpinionIntegrative

AnalogyPrecursor

developmentsTrend

extrapolationLimit curveSubstitution

analysisMultiple

substitution analysis

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Techniques to Improve Foresight

SurveillanceTrend

AnalysisExpert

OpinionIntegrative

InterviewsSurveysGroups

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Techniques to Improve Foresight

SurveillanceTrend

AnalysisExpert

OpinionIntegrative

Scenarios SWOT Opportunity/Threat

Analysis Cross Impact Analysis Innovation Map Mathematical models Road Map Four Laws Future Frequencies

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Topics

The FutureTypes of FuturesInsight Into the FutureKnowing YourselfInsight & Creativity

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Knowing Yourself

Be AwareTemperamentBlind SpotsValues & InformationThe Most Important Driving

Forces Are Invisible

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Knowing Yourself

Be AwareTemperamentBlind SpotsValues & InformationThe Most Important Driving

Forces Are Invisible

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Temperament

SJ“Guardian”

NT“Rationalists”

NF“Idealists”

SP“Artisans”

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Knowing Yourself

Be AwareTemperamentBlind SpotsValues & InformationThe Most Important Driving

Forces Are Invisible

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Blind Spots

Known UnknownSelf

Known

Unknown

Others

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Knowing Yourself

Be AwareTemperamentBlind SpotsValues & InformationThe Most Important Driving

Forces Are Invisible

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Values and Information

Same Different

Information

Same

Different

Values

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Knowing Yourself

Be AwareTemperamentBlind SpotsValues & InformationThe Most Important Driving

Forces Are Invisible

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Topics

The FutureTypes of FuturesInsight Into the FutureKnowing YourselfInsight & Creativity

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Insight and Creativity

Noise

Data

Knowledge

Wisdom

Information

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“There is absolutely no inevitability as long as there is a willingness to contemplate what is happening.”

Marshall McLuhan

Paul Schumann

PO Box 161475Austin, TX 78716512.632.6586paul.schumann@glocalvantage.c

omhttp://incollaboration.ning.comhttp://centexwfs.ning.com

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