Exploring the Future of Science and Technology

Exploring the Future of Exploring the Future of Science and TechnologyScience and Technology

Paul SchumannPaul Schumann

Glocal Vantage, Inc.Glocal Vantage, Inc.

Glocal Vantage, Inc. 2

TopicsTopics

❚ The FutureThe Future❚ Types of FuturesTypes of Futures❚ Insight Into the FutureInsight Into the Future

TopicsTopics

Types of FuturingTypes of Futuring

Future 1Future 1

Future 2Future 2

TodayToday

NormativeNormative

ProjectiveProjective

What are What are possible possible futures?futures?Can we find Can we find a path to get a path to get to those to those futures?futures?

What is the What is the trend?trend?What may What may affect the affect the trend?trend?What are the What are the potential potential futures?futures?

TopicsTopics

The Four FuturesThe Four Futures

❚ SimpleSimple❚ CyclicalCyclical❚ ChaoticChaotic❚ ComplexComplex

❚ First Industrial Revolution First Industrial Revolution (1760 - 1860)(1760 - 1860)

❚ Second Industrial Second Industrial Revolution (1860 - 1950)Revolution (1860 - 1950)

❚ Third Industrial Third Industrial Revolution (1950 - 2020)Revolution (1950 - 2020)

10,000

3.25 3.75 4.25 4.75 5.25 5.75 6.25 6.75

Earthquake Magnitude

EarthquakesEarthquakes

TopicsTopics

Driving ForcesDriving Forces

❚ DemographicDemographic❚ SociopoliticalSociopolitical❚ TechnologicalTechnological❚ EconomicEconomic

Driving ForcesDriving Forces

❚ DemographicDemographic❚ SociopoliticalSociopolitical❚ TechnologicalTechnological❚ EconomicEconomic

Technology Life CycleTechnology Life Cycle

❚ Nonproductive (25 years)Nonproductive (25 years)❚ Counter Productive (25 years)Counter Productive (25 years)❚ Hyperproductive and Transformational (25 Hyperproductive and Transformational (25

years)years)

TransformationTransformation

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Transistor

Computer

Integrated Circuit

Time Sharing

ARPANET

Microprocessor

WWW Open Source

InternetNon Productive

Counter Productive

Hyper Productive

The Real Costs of The Real Costs of Information TechnologyInformation Technology

* Schumann & Prestwood, Leadership in the Interactive Age, 1995

TechnologicalTechnological

❚ Infocom Infocom TechnologiesTechnologies❙ InternetInternet❙ Personal DevicesPersonal Devices❙ Wireless DigitalWireless Digital❙ Location SensorsLocation Sensors❙ Embedded Infocom Embedded Infocom

DevicesDevices❙ New Software New Software

ApplicationsApplications

❚ GenomicsGenomics❚ NanomaterialsNanomaterials❚ NanomachinesNanomachines

New Software ApplicationsNew Software Applications

❚ BlogsBlogs❚ Survey/Poll ToolsSurvey/Poll Tools❚ WikisWikis❚ Podcasting/Audio BlogsPodcasting/Audio Blogs❚ Vlogs (video blogs)/VideocastingVlogs (video blogs)/Videocasting❚ StreamingStreaming❚ Collaborative SpacesCollaborative Spaces❚ WebinarsWebinars❚ Affinity SystemsAffinity Systems❚ Games/SimulationsGames/Simulations❚ Integrated SystemsIntegrated Systems

Surveillance TechniquesSurveillance Techniques

❚ ScanningScanning❚ MonitoringMonitoring❚ TrackingTracking

Moving away

Moving tangentially

Moving towards

Not moving, getting larger

Not moving, getting smaller

Glocal Vantage, Inc.Glocal Vantage, Inc.

❚ PO Box 161475PO Box 161475❚ Austin, TX 78716Austin, TX 78716❚ (512) 632-6586(512) 632-6586❚ paul.schumann@glocalvantage.compaul.schumann@glocalvantage.com❚ www.glocalvantage.comwww.glocalvantage.com❚ http://incollaboration.comhttp://incollaboration.com❚ Twitter: innovant2003Twitter: innovant2003

Paul SchumannPaul Schumann

❚ Futurist and innovation consultantFuturist and innovation consultant❚ Application of web 2.0 to market & strategic Application of web 2.0 to market & strategic

intelligence systemsintelligence systems❚ Web 2.0 tools & technologiesWeb 2.0 tools & technologies❚ Application of web 2.0 to democratic processesApplication of web 2.0 to democratic processes❚ Broad perspectives on the futureBroad perspectives on the future❚ ServicesServices

❙ Strategic market research & technology forecastingStrategic market research & technology forecasting❙ Intelligence systems consultingIntelligence systems consulting❙ Seminars, webinars & presentationsSeminars, webinars & presentations

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution

license. You may distribute, remix, tweak, and build upon this work,

even commercially, as long as you credit me for the original creation as Paul Schumann, Glocal Vantage

Inc, www.glocalvantage.com.

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