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http://www.globalchange.com Future of the travel industry, leisure travel, tourism, holiday travel and business travel trends. Package holidays and city breaks. Lifestyle and demographic changes older travellers, single travellers. Long haul and short haul, future of airline industry, rail, tour operators and cruise vacations. How travel customers are changing and influenced by social networking sites such as tripadvisor. Why market research can give wrong messages to marketing teams. Future of hotels and self-catering accommodation. Ecotourism, adventure holidays and experiences. Discount travel and budget operators quality and service balanced against price and value. Popular destinations and investment opportunities in the travel industry. Selling travel packages online and through new digital channels such as iphone apps, mobile devices, Twitter campaigns. Conference keynote lecture by Futurist Dr Patrick Dixon, author of 13 books on global trends, f
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Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd
InnFuture of Travel and Tourism Impact on Travel Agents
Wednesday, 27 June 12
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¨F ast¨U rban¨T ribal¨U niversal¨R adical¨E thical
Take Hold of Your Future
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Bird Flu – could kill 100 million
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Experiences Matter Most
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EU330m more
EU1 trillion debtWednesday, 27 June 12
The future is about
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The Future of Tourism is about Emotion, Experience....
and Exchange Rates
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• EU online spending EU 200 billion in 2011
• More than all US online sales
• 20% growth year on year (US only 12%)
• 6% retail sales
• Shoppers spend EU1300 a year (25 items)
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• Latin America - most search travel online
• Following US and Euro trends closely
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80% lost in 20 seconds
Many travel sites poor
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Why can’t I find a place to stay?
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Instant Response? Hotels and conference centres need to
respond instantly to e-mail enquiries
FastGlobal Universal Fast
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What can she see online ?
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ONECUSTOMER
But take care with web personalisation
Home WorkOnlineOffline Sales EntertainMobileChat Social webMobile TV / video
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•New Zealand - online and unmanaged business travel 40% of market - growing twice as fast as travel business overall
• India - travel market grew 14% in 2011 - most searching online
•Global loyalty programmes that mix points and cash
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Cross-‐sell – Up-‐sellUsing web to drive chat / calls
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Online Travel Revolution• Floating prices (auction) for all hotels,
flights and packages• Vast clearing house for over-capacity• “Dynamic packaging” by travellers • Last minute bookings• Death of mass-market package holidays• Pressure on old model of travel agents
Universal
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1 billion children à cities
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China travel bookings >$100bn 2013$15bn online -‐ 500% growth 2008-‐13
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Population Growth Latin America
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OlderMoney
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Europe Dying
4 couples needed to produce just one
great-grandchild
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Think Young
• Mental age: 40• Physical age: 50• Actual age: 65+• Holiday hope
– Things we never did when we were young
Urban
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•Large print• No steps• Culture and history• Quality, comfort, convenience,
security
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Positive Tribalism = Values
lPeople need to belong
lSense of identitylCommunity lFamily
Tribal
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Nations as Brands
Rich heritage – opportunity for growth
Tribal
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Night Flight or Day Flight Going out or coming home? – work, food, drink,
chat, party, unwind, dark, quiet, sleep, leave
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Business leads to Leisure• 33% of tourism
spending in London is by business travellers
Urban
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Conferencing builds tribes• Requires total commitment and packages
incl leisure / and corporate entertainment• Think about staging, projectors, lighting
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All costs included
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Couples Resorts
• Growing market• Extension of city
breaks• Romantic• Exclusive• Zero provision except
in Jamaica etc
Ethics
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Would they recommend to a friend ?
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1 trillionpages a month
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95% EU bandwidth soon videoWednesday, 27 June 12
"Perfection!, Wonderful Antalya hotel. Good value, clean and quiet. So beautiful and friendly.“
Faro April 2nd , 2012 “Worst hotel I have ever been in. Should be closed down. Never want to visit again.“
Paris March 28th, 2012
Traffic up 5% in a year to review sites
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Huge growth aggregators
Long term Google threatWednesday, 27 June 12
End of short haul package holidays
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Fusion of search, inspiration and
pre-shoppingwith SALES
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COST CUTTING
Can be demoralising
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Hoxton Hotel London - £1 a night“
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33% in UK don’t watch live TVWednesday, 27 June 12
Huge increase in LaQn America MobileSome users in France > 30 gig in days
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What Mood are Customers In ?
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• City breaks• Culture• Spas• Medical tourism• Eco-tourism• Adventure• Touring
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From Global Crisis to Recovery
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Health Tourism Trend
• 1 million visits to Thailand• 150,000 to India
Urban
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Exploration - Touring
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Hotels
• Checkin• Can do• Clean• Quiet• Views• Food
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Wealthy Clients – want experiences which are not easy to buy (at any price)
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Space Tourism
• Flights for EU 170,000
• Fully booked for next 3 years
Radical
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Arts, culture, history, skills
• Learning and exploring• Culture packages - arrange own
travel + hotels• Unfamiliar countries attractive• New skill holidays eg painting, • Rejection of over-developed resorts
Radical
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The future is about variety
• New experiences• More variation in type of holiday• Independence and freedom eg self-drive
Universal
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Global Warming - facts
Global Warming Threat Wednesday, 27 June 12
Sustainability
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Oil >$100 a barrel accelerates innovationEven strong climate sceptics “go green”
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Great Memories individual family community world
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Slides: globalchange.com/ppt 12 million different visitors
Take Hold of Your Future
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