Greater Halifax Economic Background

Economic Background

June, 2010

Renewal of Halifax Regional Municipality’s Economic Strategy

Contents Page

Economic PerformanceHalifax BasicsRecent Economic Performance

210

Outcomes of 2005-10 Economic Strategy 19

Hub City 25

People Issues 29

Reputation 35

Challenging Myths 40

3

Economic Performance - Halifax Basics

4

Halifax Quick Facts• Population – Over 370,000• Labour Force Size – 230,000• 400,000 people within 30 miles• Unemployment rate – 6.5%• Real GDP 12,909(million) 1.4% growth

– Conference board forecasted that Real GDP in Halifax in 2009 grew by 1.4%, ahead of cities such as: Calgary, Toronto and Vancouver.

• Halifax’s GDP represents 47% of Provincial GDP

Halifax Snapshot

10-year Economic Overview

Indicator 1996 2006 TrendPopulation 359,111 372,858

Employment (‘000) 164.1 204.8

Unemployment Rate 8.2% 5.0%

Inflation Rate 1.6% 2.8%

Housing Starts 2,022 2,511

Retail Sales ($ millions) 3,429 5,675

University enrolment 24,433 32,926

Sources: Statistics Canada, CMHC, MPHEC

5

Financial Services• Butterfield Fund Services – 400 jobs• Olympia Capital – 150 jobs• CITCO Fund Services – 350 jobs• Marsh – 150 jobs• Admiral Insurance – 150 jobs• Meridian Fund Services (Canada) Ltd – 50

jobs• ADP Canada – 122 jobs• Manulife Bank – 150 jobs

Information Technology• xwave – 250 jobs• CGI Group Inc. – 23 jobs• SportsDirect Inc. – 110 jobs

Aerospace and Defense• IMP Aerospace Ltd. – 350 jobs• General Dynamics – 110 jobs• L-3 Electronics System – 210 jobs

Oil & Gas/Energy• Deep Panuke Project – 35 jobs

Nearshore Outsourcing• Minacs – 300 jobs• Hogg Robinson Group – 250 jobs

Other• Halifax Regional Police – 36 jobs• Scorpio Mining Corporation – 40 jobs

New Jobs in Greater Halifax

6

Halifax – Globally Well-Positioned

• 60 million people within 2 hours• Closer to Boston than to Montreal• Closer to New York than to Toronto

• 60 million people within 2 hours• Closer to Boston than to Montreal• Closer to New York than to Toronto

7

5%

5%

6%

7%

8%

30%

16%

12%

7%

4%

2%

Age 0 to 4

Age 5 to 9

Age 10 to 14

Age 15 to 19

Age 20 to 24

Age 25 to 44

Age 45 to 54

Age 55 to 64

Age 65 to 74

Age 75 to 84

Age 85 and over

Population by Age – Halifax 2006

Source: Statistics Canada

8

Education Attainment

Source: 2006 Census of Canada, Nova Scotia Perspective, Release #7, Nova Scotia Department of Finance, Statistics Division

67% of the population of Halifax have trade,

college or university qualifications – the 4th

highest in Canada.

High school

23%

trades 13%

College, 25%

Uni-versity

39%

9

10

Agriculture0%

Forestry, fishing, mining, oil and gas1%

Utilities1%

Construction6% Manufacturing

5%

Trade16%

Transportation and warehousing

5%

Finance, insurance, real estate and leas-

ing7%

Professional, scientific and technical services7% Business, building and other support services

5%

Educational services

10%

Health care and social assistance13%

Information, culture and recreation

5%

Accommodation and food services

6%

Other services4%

Public administration9%

Halifax: Employment by Industry 2009

Source: Statistics Canada: Labourforce Historical Review 2009

11

Recent Economic Performance

12

Halifax’s labour force growth has outperformed other areas of

Nova Scotia by a wide margin

13

Wagons East

14

Employment Comparison

Unlike the rest of Canada, Nova Scotia, and the Atlantic Provinces, Halifax has continued to create jobs throughout

the recent recession

CIBC’s index of 9 indicators places Halifax as the top performing economy in Canada

15

CFIB Confidence Survey: February 2010

At the beginning of 2010 – Nova

Scotia has the highest level of small business confidence in

Canada

16

17

Halifax’s Average Earnings Trend

Average earnings in

Halifax have been increasing

steadily over the

last 4 years

18

Halifax’s NSCC Campus Enrollment Trend

NSCC enrollment in Halifax campuses are increasing sharply and consistently.

19

Halifax’s University Enrollment Trend

University enrollment has continued to decrease but saw a rebound in 2009.

20

2005-10 Economic Strategy Outcomes

21

Quantitative Results• Our population has increased by more than 15,000. • More than 18,000 net new jobs have been created. • The average income has jumped by more than $4,000 • The jump in outmigration so evident in 2006-07 has

reversed.• At the beginning of 2010, Nova Scotia and Halifax had the

highest level of small business confidence in Canada and that index was at its highest level in four years.

• By the end of 2009 CIBC’s Metro Monitor told us that by a measure of 9 different indicators, Halifax had the strongest economy in Canada

22

Qualitative Results• HRM by design has been approved and several

new projects have been approved or are under construction in the Capital District

• HRM has set infrastructure spending priorities• Young professionals are engaged in their

community, thanks to FUSION Halifax.

23

Sector Results• Both Port and Airport gateways have made major investments

and have begun to rebound from the world recession.• Substantial strenthing of the finance and insurance sector…HRM’s

highest wage sector• Stabilization of Defense and other Federal Government

Employment• HRM is on the brink of a major investment in a new convention

centre…the private component of which will add to the stock of class A downtown office space.

• Several additional class A office projects have been proposed for the downtown core.

• A gateway strategy has been developed but implementation is slow.

Business Climate• Measurable improvements in processing times

for development agreements and project approvals have been achieved.

• However Nova Scotia’s tax and regulatory burden seems to be among the most burdensome in Canada.

24

Chamber Scorecard• The Chamber accepted the substantial role of

developing a yearly community progress report on the strategy based on established outcome measures.

• Outcomes were mixed. Notably population, university enrolment, and public and private investment targets did not meet their stretch goals. However, significant progress was achieved in regulatory reform and most of the top 11 priority actions.

25

26

Hub City

• The Conference Board Of Canada’s research shows that 9 Canadian cities drive an even faster rate of growth in smaller communities within the same province or region.

• The Conference Board demonstrates growth convergence between the cities and surrounding areas…in other words gaps in GDP growth between the hub city and surrounding areas are declining rapidly.

• The gap between GDP per capita in Halifax, surrounding centres of Nova Scotia and other Atlantic provinces shows the strongest convergence of any hub city in Canada

• In other words, Halifax not only pulls along the economies of surrounding communities, it helps them grow even faster than the hub.

Hub City Defined

27

• Over 13,000 people from outside HRM commute to the community daily for employment. These workers bring about $600 million in income back to their communities each year from their jobs in Halifax.

• Aside from declines in primary and manufacturing sectors employment in most other sectors was up outside of Halifax.

Hub City Facts

28

• Gateway• Digital Industries• Finance & Insurance • Ocean Industry• Life Science• Education • Hospitality –Tourism• Green-Tec• Real Estate – Development• Aerospace & Defence• Advanced Manufacturing

Halifax is Atlantic Canada’s Economic Hub

Hub city assets drive the economic growth of Halifax

and all of Nova Scotia

29

30

People Issues

31

Labour market shifts demand different and new skills.

Labour Market Outlook: Nova Scotia

2009* 2014** ChangePopulation 15+ (’000) 772.5 770.9 -1.6

Labour Force (’000) 498.7 500.1 +1.4

Employed (’000) 453.0 462.5 +9.5

Unemployed (’000) 45.6 37.6 -8.0

Unemployment Rate (%) 9.2 7.5 -1.7

Participation Rate (%) 64.6 64.9 +0.3

*YTD Estimate **Projection 33

3.8%

0.6%

6.5%

0.1%

4.7%

-1.5%

Halifax Nova Scotia Moncton New Brunswick St. John's Newfoundland

Population Growth 2001-2006Halifax has not kept pace with growth in neighbouring cities

34

Net Youth Migration

1805

2040

2160

3280

4065

5105

5565

6545

7235

16705

Victoria

Halifax

Kelowna

Québec

Barrie

Montréal

Oshawa

Ottawa - Gatineau

Vancouver

Edmonton

Source: Statistics Canada, Census 2006

Aged 20 – 34 2001 - 2006

While Halifax has had net improvement in youth

migration our performance is no longer the best among

medium sized cities35

36

Reputation

A Green Community• HRM Harbour Solutions

– $333 million– First coastal city in Atlantic Canada to move to full

treatment• Solid waste diversion at over 60%

– Highest of any city in Canada• Pesticide by-law• Green Energy Plan

37

• Vibrant arts and culture environment - symphony, theatre, art galleries, museums, historic sites, major junior hockey

• Hub city, pub & club city• Variety of recreation - parks, beaches, hiking, boating, golf • Physical beauty• Over 10% of Halifax workers walk to work• Harbour Solutions, Recycling, Pesticide By-Law

Quality of Life

38

Quality of Life Factors, by Indicated Frequency of Importance

Quality of Life Factors

Percentage of Respondents Citing as Important

2009

Low crime rate 79

Health facilities 68

Housing availability 62

Housing costs 62

Ratings of public schools 61

Climate 55

Recreational opportunities 53

Colleges and universities in area 51

Cultural opportunities 4639

40

Research

Challenging the Myths: HRM’s Attitudes to Growth & Development

Myth 1: HRM’s population thinks growth is

bad.

43

Attitudes To Economic Growth (mean ratings; 10 = “strongly agree”)(7 is considered strong approval of a statement)

Economic Growth Is Important For A Vibrant Community (n=1369)

HRM Needs To Continually Grow Its Economic Base (n=1359)

A Growing Economy Provides For Enhanced Services & Entertainment Options (n=1366)

Economic Growth Provides New Employment Opportunities That Benefit Me & My Family

(n=1350)

My quality of life is enhanced through economic growth in HRM (n=1358)

Economic Growth Causes Traffic Congestion & Other Inconveniences (n=1360)

Future Economic Growth Should Be Primarily Directed To Suburbs & New Developments

(n=1346)

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

8.3

8.1

7.9

7.3

7.1

6.4

5

Change Over Last 10 - 15 Years Has Been: (Total Sample: 1371)

Overall Economic Growth In HRM

Commercial Development In HRM

Residential Development in HRM

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

72% 71%

61%

19% 18%23%

4% 6%12%

Good For HRMNeither Good Nor BadBad For HRM

44

Myth 2: People don’t support the idea of a

densely developed urban core.

Development In Downtown Halifax (Total Sample: 1371)

Both Commercial And Residential Development

Should Be Happening Much More Quickly In

Downtown Halifax

Downtown Halifax Can Easily Accommodate More Tall Buildings

HRM Spends Too Much Money On Downtown

Halifax

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

12%25% 22%

30%

26%44%6%

4%

13%

32%29%

14%21% 17%7% Strongly Agree

Mostly Agree

Neither

Mostly Disagree

Strongly Disagree

46

47

Downtown Halifax Should Be The Location For Future Development: By Type Of Development (among those stating strong preference for town or city)

Prefer Heart Of A City Prefer Small Town Or Rural Setting

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

37%

17%

29%

13%9%

5%

High Density Com-mercialHigh Density ResidentialLow Density Residential

Axis Title

Note: Scale is 0% – 50%

Downtown Halifax Should Be The Location For Future Development: By Type Of Development

Total Southern Peninsula

Northern Peninsula

Dartmouth Bedford, Clay-ton Park, etc.

Fall River, Sackville, Tan-

tallon, etc.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

High Density Commercial

High Density Residential

Low Density Residential

Note: Scale is 0% – 50%48

Myth 3: People don’t recognize and support

downtown Halifax as ‘the showroom’ of the regional municipality.

50

Development In Downtown Halifax (Total Sample: 1371)

Both Commercial And Resi-dential Development

Should Be Happening Much More Quickly In Downtown

Halifax

Downtown Halifax Can Eas-ily Accommodate More Tall

Buildings

HRM Spends Too Much Money On Downtown Hali-

fax

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

12%25% 22%

30%26%

44%6%4%

13%32%

29%

14%21% 17%7%

Strongly AgreeMostly AgreeNeitherMostly DisagreeStrongly Disagree

51

Who Will Benefit From (Further) Growth And Development In Downtown Halifax

I Will Personally Benefit My Neighborhood Will Benefit0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

12% 13%

27% 28%

5% 5%

37% 36%

19% 18%Strongly AgreeMostly AgreeNeitherMostly DisagreeStrongly Disagree

(Total Sample: 1371)

52

I Will Personally Benefit From Further Growth And Development In Downtown Halifax

(among those stating strong preference for town or city)

Prefer Heart Of A City Prefer Small Town Or Rural Setting0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

9%21%

20%

32%5%

4%40%

31%

27%12%

Strongly AgreeMostly AgreeNeitherMostly DisagreeStrongly Disagree

n= 516 376

53

My Neighborhood Will Benefit From Further Growth & Development In Downtown Halifax

(among those stating strong preference for town or city)

Prefer Heart Of A City Prefer Small Town Or Rural Setting0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

7%22%

20%

29%5%

5%39%

31%

28%13%

Strongly AgreeMostly AgreeNeitherMostly DisagreeStrongly Disagree

Myth 4: People are opposed to tall buildings.

54

55

A Building’s Visual Appeal Is Very Important(Total Sample: 1371)

The Visual Appeal Of New Develop-ments Should Be Strongly Considered

In The Approval Process

The Design Of A Building Is More Im-portant Than The Height Of A Building

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1% 8%3%17%

1%

5%38%

37%

56%

34%Strongly AgreeMostly AgreeNeitherMostly DisagreeStrongly Disagree

56

Support For Developments In The Downtown Core (Total Sample: 1371)

4 Stories Or Less 4 - 10 Stories 10 Stories Or Taller0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

13% 17%30%

14%13%

13%3% 2%

2%49% 47%

33%

22% 21% 22% Completely SupportMostly SupportNeitherMostly Do Not SupportDo Not Support At All

57

Developments That Are 10 Stories Or Taller In The Downtown Core

(among those stating strong preference for town or city)

Prefer Heart Of A City Prefer Small Town Or Rural Set-ting

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

26%37%

14%

14%2%

3%31%

30%

26%17% Completely Support

Mostly SupportNeitherMostly Do Not SupportDo Not Support At All

58

Developments That Are 4 to 10 Stories Tall In The Spring Garden Road Area

(among those stating strong preference for town or city)

Prefer Heart Of A City Prefer Small Town Or Rural Set -ting

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

16%28%

17%

19%1%

3%44%

38%

22%12%

Completely SupportMostly SupportNeitherMostly Do Not SupportDo Not Support At All