Greentech Boom, Sustainable innovation - Conference keynote speaker

Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd

How innovation can help save the world

from climate change and boost economies

Patrick Dixon is Chairman of Global Change Ltd, Author of

15 books and has been ranked one of the 20 most

influential business thinkers alive today (Thinkers 50)

Greentech Boom, Sustainable innovation

(2009)

500 videos of keynotes

www.youtube.com/user/pjvdixon

Over 4 million views

Dixon’s Futurist Website

www.globalchange.com/

14 million unique visitors.

Structure 1. Economy and energy price

2. Science of global warming

3. Saving

4. Generation

5. Trading

6. Conclusions

Sustainability

Wild Cards: Risk Management

Low probability, high impact events

Wild Cards: Risk Management

Low probability, high impact events

Future of Iran nuclear programme

Bird Flu – could

kill 100 million

10% Cleveland homes repossessed

1 in 146 homes new action in Nevada

744,000 homeless in July 2008 – Las Vegas Bus Tour

Emotion

Lessons from post-war recoveries

Markets rapidly re-appear

Massive innovation / entrepreneurship

Those with cash often become very wealthy

Fight to build monopolies of scarce items

Government Fear of Deflation

Over-reaction

Delayed impact of fiscal measures

Big cycles of boom and bust likely to follow

Economic instability flexible strategy

Large corporations already changing

Consumer attention

Activist pressures

New regulations

Corporate image

Cause-related marketing

Personal decisions by employees

Huge pressure to reduce costs

Anticipating government regulation

AND ANOTHER REASON........

What will future oil prices be?

Impact on viability of innovation

Global Warming - facts

400,000 square miles of Arctic ice

have melted in the last 30 years

Global Warming - Summary G Gases

L Light

O Orbit

B Balance

A Acceleration

L Land use

W Wet

A Arid

R Radical

M Migration

I Innovation

N Nuclear

G Global government

Source: „Vostok“ (Antarctica) ice cores, World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, NOAA,

Boulder, CO, USA

Future?

x

CO2 and Earth Temperature

Dip equivalent to 0.5 mile of ice over

some of northern hemisphere 15,000

years ago

How to save >20% global emissions...

1% Global GDP

$400-500bn each year

Stabilise at 500-550 parts per million

(ppm) by 2050

up from 450 ppm today

Stern report $400-500 billion a year to be spent on

- Gas supply and distribution 25%

- Refined petroleum 24%

- Electricity production and distribution 16%

- Cement production 19%

- Fertilisers production and use 5%

- Fishing 5%

Examples Global Reductions in CO2

Carbon offsets 20% all figs by 2030

Heat pumps 2%

Carbon capture 3.6%

Electric cars 0.5%

Low energy streetlights 2%

Polymer 1%

Wind power 5%

Solar 5%

Aviation 1.5%

Shipping 1%

Other Big Savings in Carbon

Insulation

Nanotechnology

Nuclear power

Consumers need to understand the

reality

Make Buildings Last 30% + of lifetime energy use = build and demolish

Build to Last 30% building energy is construct and demolish

E-Crete

Concrete industry = 5-7% global CO2

Geoplymers such as E-crete (power station ash)

Jannie Van Deventer, University of Melbourne,

founder Zeobond.

Polymer concrete 7% global emissions is concrete use

Save 10% construction energy in new buildings

50% world’s concrete production would save 1bn

tons C02 in 10 years

Save 2-3% global emissions

Potential sales EU £5bn

Heat Pumps

70% new buildings in Sweden

45% new buildings in New Zealand

30% new buildings in Switzerland

Up to 50% energy savings

Payback 15 years but boosts electricity demand

Heat Pumps £30bn pa EU

If half UK homes next 20 years

50,000 pa

Plus retrofits 1% 25m homes

300k total installations pa

Heat pump sales £10-15bn

Rebalancing Air Conditioning

Energy saving 30-50%

More stable temperature

Intelligent

Green Roofs

CH2 Building Melbourne

Chicago 214,000 square metres

Roof temperature reduced 30 deg C in

Summer . Surrounding area cooler by

9 deg

California – rapid takeup

Toronto: 8% green-roofed would lower

heat island by < 2 degrees

12% German roofs are “green

Tokyo: 20% new roofs = “green”. If 50%

all roofs green, save $1m a day in cooling

Street Lights

5 2% of US energy

120 million EU street

lamps

75% replace in 15 years

at unit cost of $750

including labour

Low energy streetlights

Cost replacing all 120 m EU streetlights

£300bn saving £50bn a year at 2008 prices

Market £15bn pa over 15 years

LED low voltage lights

Plasma screens energy us is 4x cathode ray tubes If all UK plasmas on at once would need

2.5 new nuclear power stations

Green IT

Web 5.3% global power use

9.4% US

1 trillion kwh

50% = PCs on homes / offices

=1 bn people running fan heaters for an hour

Web traffic x 40-100 times in 15 years

Servers 1% global power

50,000 squ metre data server is 5 megwatts

– enough to power 5000 homes

Green It saves 50% power

Better cooling, fibreoptics,

turning off spare capacity

Virtual servers

Standbys waste 5 m tons co2

US alone

Electric Cars

Assume 10% smallest

cars are electric cars

within 10yrs

Could increase power

consumption by 20% -

but low cost at night

Electric cars – more efficient than

burning fuel in mobile engines –

20% energy saving in 20% of

vehicle miles driven in developed

nations = 4% saving in motoring.

Estimate 0.5% .

Aviation efficiency – multiple

efficiencies reduce energy use per

passenger kilometre flown by 35% -

1.5%

Shipping efficiency – 20% saving of

energy, of 5% global emissions from

shipping is 1%

Capture Manufacturing Heat

Lafarge Plasterboard: saves 15% energy

1,600 tons a year

Same as 370 cars

$400k cost with payback time 5 years

Smart Power Regulation

Variable pricing

Australia Power Shortage

40% energy = heat, cool, light buildings

Air conditioning 7% green-house gases

Peak electricity jumps 57%

10% capacity used 4 days a year

Average $50 peak $10,000 per MWhr

Managing peak demand

Automatic meter readings

Variable pricing

Time and weather sensitive discounting

20 million acres lost

33% 2007 corn crop

fuel

EU also 5% gasoline and

diesel from food by 2010

18% of 2008 US grain fuel

Morocco, Uzbekistan, Yemen, Mauritania, Niger,

Uzbekistan, Senegal, Haiti, Bolivia Indonesia

Cameroon 24 people killed, 1,600 arrested

Indonesia 10,000 outside presidential palace -soya bean

prices rose >50% in a month

Egypt 7 people die in fights or of exhaustion queuing for

subsidised bread

Burkina Faso Riots in three towns

Guinea Five anti-government riots last 18mths

Pakistan 1000s of troops guard food trucks

“Crime against humanity”

“The United States and the European Union have

taken “criminal path” by contributing to explosive

rise in global food prices through using food

crops to produce biofuels”

UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food

UN Press Release: 28 April 2008

Wind Power

$4m to build - 20 years

Payback 5 years

US sales of small

turbines likely to exceed

100,000 a year

Texas 1 gigawatt unit

Who pays?

Marketing

budget ?

McDonalds

Wind Turbines EU Growth

30% growth pa

Denmark 19%, Germany 6%

Cost 4p /kwh

Challenges – location, distance,

unreliable

Wind Turbines Sales

Market <£6bn pa UK alone aiming 20,000 more turbines

by 2020

80 metre blades local manufacture

120,000 terawatts of sunlight /day

7,000 times total power use

Solar Cells = $500 / ton saved

but costs will fall fast towards

10c / KwH in hot countries

Nuclear energy

Expect rapid growth of new reactors

Wild card will be dirty terror bomb or a meltdown

Large atoms split

Small atoms fuse

Offsetting – needed but controversial

Solar cells: £10k to save 40 tons

Cost per ton £250

Offsetting: £10k into hydro-

power saves 700 tons

Cost per ton £15

Offsetting Business eg Wood burning furnaces for schools

Carbon trading

World’s largest derivative market ?

US contracts grew 131% 2006

Expect £50bn pa by 2012 > 1 bn tons

Offsetting Calculator 1 ton of carbon emitted as carbon dioxide =

£10-15 to offset

Concrete = 1 ton of carbon per ton of product

Short haul return flight = 1 ton

Executive car driven 12,000 miles = 4 tons

Gas bill of £550 = 1 ton

Electricity bill of £1350 = 1 ton

Carbon Capture Burn in O2 – 100% capture

Absorber plus solvent – 90% capture

Store gas / oil field or deep ocean or saline aquifers

Carbon Capture Capacity Canada could store 1.3 trillion tons CO2

– enough to last 100 years

Only 3 pilot projects running combined

storage 3m tons pa but US makes 1.5bn

tons a year

EU carbon capture

2020 all new coal fired generators should

include Carbon Capture and Storate

Increase prices by 1-2p /kwh

Cost capturing a ton should fall from £20-

45 down to £12.

Vattenfall, Shell, RWE, Statoil

Carbon Capture Market 2010-2030

$500bn

$1bn / plant

Government Action (EU)

Subsidies 58% for fossil fuels

29% for nuclear

Regulations Will impact energy markets for 50 years

Moore’s law

Computing doubled every 18 months

INNOVATION

CPU Transistor counts 1971 - 2008

1 to 1000 in 10 doublings

1 to 1 million in 20 doublings

1 to 1 billion in 30 doublings

SCIENCE KNOWLEDGE

GROWS FAST

40 years 1 1 million transistors

Nanotech $m

Energy

Consulting

Expect 5% of all

$40 trillion

expenditure

over 20 years on

reducing carbon

Carbon Diet C Carbon capture

A Alternative

energy

R Recycling

B Build to last

O Offsetting

N Neutral life

D Damage

limitation

I Insulation

E Electric vehicles

T Taxation and

subsidies

Examples Global Reductions in CO2

Carbon offsets 20% all figs by 2030

Heat pumps 2%

Carbon capture 3.6%

Electric cars 0.5%

Low energy streetlights 2%

Polymer 1%

Wind power 5%

Solar 5%

Aviation 1.5%

Shipping 1%

Structure 1. Economy and energy price

2. Science of global warming

3. Saving

4. Generation

5. Trading

6. Conclusions

For individuals

For family

For community

For whole earth

Globalchange.com/ppt/greentech

Patrick Dixon is Chairman of Global Change Ltd, Author of

15 books and has been ranked one of the 20 most

influential business thinkers alive today (Thinkers 50)

Greentech Boom, Sustainable innovation

(2009)

500 videos of keynotes

www.youtube.com/user/pjvdixon

Over 4 million views

Dixon’s Futurist Website

www.globalchange.com/

14 million unique visitors.