Increased non-commodity costs in Belgium and neighbouring countries (VIB Seminar 2014)

18/10/2012 E&C Market info slide 1

Increased non-commodity costs in

Belgium and neighbouring countries

07/10/2014

22/09/2014 E&C Market info slide 2

Introduction

07/10/2014 E&C – VIB seminar slide 3

Energy p rocu remen t consu l tancy

Gas & electricity Focused on price, not on

consumption reduction

Consulting, not supplying,

trading or brokering

CLIENT

SUPPLIER CONSULTANT

07/10/2014 E&C – VIB seminar slide 4

Global customer loyalty

07/10/2014 E&C – VIB seminar slide 5

22/09/2014 E&C Market info slide 6

Febeliec benchmark study

(June 2014 ~ 100 – 1000 GWh)

07/10/2014 E&C – VIB seminar slide 7

Febeliec study (update June 2014)

< 100 GWh ?

07/10/2014 E&C – VIB seminar slide 8

07/10/2014 E&C – VIB seminar slide 9

22/09/2014 E&C Market info slide 10

E&C benchmark study

(September 2014 <100 GWh)

07/10/2014 E&C – VIB seminar slide 11

07/10/2014 E&C – VIB seminar slide 12

TOTAL DE - BE - NL - FR

07/10/2014 E&C – VIB seminar slide 13

TOTAL BE – NL – FR

07/10/2014 E&C – VIB seminar slide 14

COMMODITY DE – BE – NL - FR

51,8 51,0

44,9

36,5

49,751,0

48,9

41,2

50,852,0 51,8

43,6

50,6 51,5

46,9

38,0

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Germany Belgium The Netherlands France

€/M

Wh

Commodity price for base load profiles (5-10 GWh)

Commodity

22/09/2014 E&C Market info slide 15

Non-commodity

07/10/2014 E&C – VIB seminar slide 16

TAXES DE – BE – NL - FR

07/10/2014 E&C – VIB seminar slide 17

TAXES BE – NL - FR

07/10/2014 E&C – VIB seminar slide 18

T&D DE – BE – NL - FR

07/10/2014 E&C – VIB seminar slide 19

07/10/2014 E&C – VIB seminar slide 20

TAXES Flanders – Brussels –Wallonia

07/10/2014 E&C – VIB seminar slide 21

T&D Flanders – Brussels - Wallonia

07/10/2014 E&C – VIB seminar slide 22

But, beware of…

The distribution cost in Flanders is ‘doped’ as pointed out by

the SERV

07/10/2014 E&C – VIB seminar slide 23

• Certificate glut

• Cost of freezing the grid tariffs

• Increasing pre-financing cost

07/10/2014 E&C – VIB seminar slide 24

07/10/2014 E&C – VIB seminar slide 25

Short term

Long term

Solution?

• Avoid additional financing cost?

• Spread the cost over more generations?

• Introduce a ‘bad fund’ with shares?

• Finance the debt by public funds?

22/09/2014 E&C Market info slide 26

Commodity

07/10/2014 E&C – VIB seminar slide 27

37

42

47

52

57

62

1/0

1/1

1

1/0

3/1

1

1/0

5/1

1

1/0

7/1

1

1/0

9/1

1

1/1

1/1

1

1/0

1/1

2

1/0

3/1

2

1/0

5/1

2

1/0

7/1

2

1/0

9/1

2

1/1

1/1

2

1/0

1/1

3

1/0

3/1

3

1/0

5/1

3

1/0

7/1

3

1/0

9/1

3

1/1

1/1

3

1/0

1/1

4

1/0

3/1

4

1/0

5/1

4

1/0

7/1

4

1/0

9/1

4

€/M

Wh

Endex BE Cal contracts

Cal 14 Cal 15 Cal 16 Cal 17

Doel 3 &

Tihange 2

Doel 4

07/10/2014 E&C – VIB seminar slide 28

07/10/2014 E&C – VIB seminar slide 29

07/10/2014 E&C – VIB seminar slide 30

07/10/2014 E&C – VIB seminar slide 31

Disposable for pay-back on fixed costs

Marginal cost = variable cost to

produce an extra MWh of electricity

Renewable Nuclear Coal Gas

Marginal cost

€/M

Wh

CO2

CO2

07/10/2014 E&C – VIB seminar slide 32

2013: Doel 3 – Tihange 2

07/10/2014 E&C – VIB seminar slide 33

2015: Doel 3 – Tihange 2 – conventional

outages + strategic reserve

07/10/2014 E&C – VIB seminar slide 34

2015: Doel 3 – Tihange 2 – Doel 4 –

conventional outages + strategic reserve

07/10/2014 E&C – VIB seminar slide 35

5,0

5,5

6,0

6,5

7,0

7,5

8,0

8,5

Janu

ary

Fe

bru

ary

Ma

rch

Apri

l

Ma

y

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

be

r

Octo

ber

Novem

ber

Decem

ber

TW

h

Power consumption in Belgium (TWh)

2009-2012 range 2012 2013 2014

Context of declining consumption

07/10/2014 E&C – VIB seminar slide 36

… and declining peak demand

Peak load (MW)

2014 12.469

2013 13.385

2012 13.362

2011 13.208

2010 13.845

2009 13.530

2008 13.479

2007 14.033

07/10/2014 E&C – VIB seminar slide 37

Conclusion

• ‘German consumers pay less than Belgian consumers’: only

partly true and not in all cases

• Need for a transparent invoice that is clear for consumers &

gives them a better basis to take decisions

• Need for additional cross-border capacity remains

• Some suppliers took their production plants out of the market but

keep it available for the security of supply because of introduction

of capacity cost

07/10/2014 E&C – VIB seminar slide 38

More information?

Kobe Cannaerts

Operations Director, E&C

Spinnerijkaai 43

8500 Kortrijk – Belgium

Direct: +32 56 25 24 25

kobe@eecc.eu

http://www.eecc.eu

http://energytics.wordpress.com