Masterclass Dublin Jan 2014

Predictive Lifetime Value

Predictive Lifetime Value for Performance Marketing at Scale

Masterclass Tour Dublin 2014

Predictive Lifetime Value

Thank you

Predictive Lifetime Value

Predictive Lifetime Value

240+ features in 2013

Predictive Lifetime Value

$7 CPA $5 CPA

$45 $79

Kerry Diana

Predictive Lifetime Value

Customers?(every marketing team’s worst nightmare)

Predictive Lifetime Value

6 Week Purchase Cycle

Kerry Diana

Predictive Lifetime Value

The marketing multiplier effect

• Direct marketing

• Email marketing

• Content marketing

• TV campaigns

• Social engagement

• Loyalty programs & re-marketing

Predictive Lifetime Value

Media investment = lifetime value

Predictive Lifetime Value

Lifetime ROI vs. CPA – 6X higher ROI

Predictive Lifetime Value

Review of yesterday

• Think about lead gen

• Paid products on the rise• 230M users

• 24M users in UK, 20M on mobile• 6M users in Netherlands, 4.8 on mobile• Ad accuracy norm is 27%, 91% on FB

• 33% of people find product via social, 50% from search• 300M on G+, 540M on Google products• 2.4B global internet users

• 5x more expensive to acquire customers than retain• 23% of Euro marketers sole focus is targeting the right audience

Predictive Lifetime Value

Looking for performance at scale.

Predictive Lifetime Value

Predictive Lifetime Value

State of

Facebook.

Predictive Lifetime Value

5.5M in 2005

Predictive Lifetime Value

Predictive Lifetime Value

We need to generate

$1M in handbag sales by end of

quarter

Predictive Lifetime Value

Predictive Lifetime Value

Predictive Lifetime Value

100M During Primetime Every Night

Predictive Lifetime Value

Predictive Lifetime Value

$4M for 30 Seconds

Predictive Lifetime Value

Predictive Lifetime Value

Results?

Predictive Lifetime Value

2013 retail benchmark report.

Highlights:

- 2.5X Increase in CTR

- 36% Increase in ROI

- 45% increase in CPMs

- 3x more tracking mobile revenue

- 57% of desktop is News Feed

Predictive Lifetime Value

• 10X greater purchase rates

• 2X greater LTV vs. any other channel

• 50% greater LTV using lookalikes

• 12M members from FB

“We’re gaining higher LTV via FB than we are from anywhere else. Right now,

FB is our most effective marketing channel.” – Tom Beverly, Fab VP Marketing

“I won’t make a move on FB unless I speak with Nanigans. I consider them an

extension of my engineering team.” – Blake Chandlee, Facebook VP

Brand case study

Predictive Lifetime Value

$80k - $200k

Agency case study

Predictive Lifetime Value

Best way to approach Facebook?

Predictive Lifetime Value

Predictive Lifetime Value

Goals? Market Size? Expectations?

Predictive Lifetime Value

Creative

Targeting

Optimization

Predictive Lifetime Value

Predictive Lifetime Value

Predictive Lifetime Value

Predictive Lifetime Value

Nothing else: Self identifiable and frictionless ads

Predictive Lifetime Value

Aesthetics (interest)

Language (consideration)

Relevancy (decision)

Predictive Lifetime Value

Over a googol targeting combinations

Aesthetics (interest)

250%

Predictive Lifetime Value

- Disruptive

- “Attention”

- Self identification

Have fun

Predictive Lifetime Value

Over a googol targeting combinations

Language (consideration)

75%

Predictive Lifetime Value

Over a googol targeting combinations

Relevance (decision)

40%

Predictive Lifetime Value

Creative

Targeting

Optimization

Predictive Lifetime Value

How many targeting combinations are there on Facebook?

Predictive Lifetime Value

Over a googol targeting combinations on Facebook

10,000,000,000000,000,000,000,000000,000,000,000,000000,000,000,000,000000,000,000,000,000000,000,000,000,000000,000,000,000,000

Predictive Lifetime Value

Unprecedented targeting

Device

• Type• OS version• Wi-fi connectivity

Behavior

• Actions taken with sites and apps

• Offline purchase behavior

CRM

• CRM…

Demographics

• Age• Gender• Language• Location

Affinities

• Likes• Interests• Conversations

Social

• Relationship status• Education level,

college, major• Employer, position

Predictive Lifetime Value

CRM targeting

james@gmail.com

laura@gmail.com

jennie@gmail.com

alex@gmail.com

scott@gmail.com

CRMDatabase

FB Profile Match

Targetable Audience

Predictive Lifetime Value

Interest targeting scales campaign

None Partner Categories

Lookalike Broad Custom Audiences

Interest Targeting

FBX0

1,000,000,000

2,000,000,000

3,000,000,000

4,000,000,000

5,000,000,000

6,000,000,000

7,000,000,000

8,000,000,000

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

Impressions vs. Purchase Rate by Targeting Type

Purchase Rate

Impressions

Predictive Lifetime Value

Creative

Targeting

Optimization (60% of employees)

Predictive Lifetime Value

Maturity curves

Affinity modeling

Cohort analysis

Predictive Lifetime Value

Early ROI signals via maturity curves

Hours from Click

RO

I

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 900%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

Predictive Lifetime Value

Expand to lookalikes via affinity modeling

High affinity with core customers

Low affinity with core customers

Expand into the highest quality segments

Predictive Lifetime Value

Track cohorts – lifetime behavior

Predictive Lifetime Value

Track cohorts – identify opportunity

Time Period ROI Increase

Black Friday vs. prior Friday + 36%

London vs. Paris + 24%

35-44 age demo vs. 45-54 + 9%

Cyber Monday vs. prior Monday + 54%

Re-targeting implementation + 28%

Predictive Lifetime Value

Go big – Scale with confidence

Predictive Lifetime Value

Remarket39% more customers. 89% increase in revenue per customer

Predictive Lifetime Value

Automation – RTB, programmatically bid, enhance and refresh

Save time with automated targeting, creative testing, and conversion-based algorithms

Predictive Lifetime Value

That’s all there is to it…

Closing points

Predictive Lifetime Value

State of digital advertising

• Digital 25% of marketing

• Paid search 24%; at point of diminishing return

• Display represents 41%

• 290B impressions on thousands of sites; 54% not visible

• Social less than 15%

• Mobile less than 15%

Predictive Lifetime Value

Social & mobile

Predictive Lifetime Value

Why Aren’t We More Excited About Digital

Advertising?

Predictive Lifetime Value

Predictive Lifetime Value

Technology is not

Technology.

Predictive Lifetime Value

More is not

More.

Predictive Lifetime Value

Managed service deflates

Value.

Predictive Lifetime Value

Predictive lifetime value for performance marketing at scale.

Predictive Lifetime Value

slagen@nanigans.com

Additional case studies on nanigans.com• Interest targeting scales delivery 3000%• Pixeling reduces cost per purchase by 8x• 4x ROI with dynamic creative• 197% higher ROI w/FBX News Feed• 89% sales increase using FBX• 55% sales increase with photo posts• 12x member acquisition • 235k fans in 3 days• 136% ROI increase in 4 days