Prosperity Scorecard for Thunder Bay, Ontario

February 8, 2009

Prosperity Scorecard for

Thunder Bay, Ontario

Ronnie Sanders and Patrick Adler

Research Associates

2

1. Summary Statistics

2. Overall Performance

3. Technology

4. Talent

5. Tolerance / Inclusiveness

6. Territorial Assets / Quality of

Place

Outline / Approach

3

Benchmark Peers

Peer Selection

14 peer states/

provinces for

Ontario based on

population.

10 cities/regions

selected with

populations

approximately the

same as Thunder

Bay.

• Battle Creek, MI

• Bloomington, IL

• College Station, TX

• Kelowna, BC

• Mount Vernon, WA

• Rocky Mount, NC

• Sherbrooke, QC

• State College, PA

• Trois-Rivieres, QC

4

5

Summary Statistics

Summary Statistics

6

Summary StatisticsPeer

Minimum

Peer

Average

Peer

Maximum

Provincial/State

Average

Total Population, 2006 115,700 150,000 197,000 546,000

GDP (CAD millions) 2006 $5,000 $6,000 $9,000 $29,000

Median Age, 2006 25.7 36.6 43.8 37.5

Overall Cost of Living Index 92.5 104.3 131.4 101.5

Thunder Bay, ON123,000

$5,000

41.8

102.8

Total Population

7

123,000

116,000

134,000

138,000

141,000

142,000

146,000

161,000

162,000

187,000

197,000

Mount Vernon, WA

Thunder Bay, ON

Dalton, GA

Battle Creek, MI

State College, PA

Trois-Rivières, QC

Rocky Mount, NC

Bloomington, IL

Kelowna, BC

Sherbrooke , QC

College Station, TX

Total PopulationThunder Bay, ON and Peer Regions, 2006

Source: Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 94-581-XCB2006004. US Census Bureau, American Community Survey. (2006).

Total GDP (100,000 CA $)

8

$5,300

$5,300

$5,500

$5,500

$5,800

$6,500

$6,700

$6,700

$6,800

$7,200

$8,600

Trois-Rivières, QC

Thunder Bay, ON

Battle Creek, MI

Mount Vernon, WA

State College, PA

College Station, TX

Rocky Mount, NC

Dalton, GA

Kelowna, BC

Sherbrooke , QC

Bloomington, IL

GDP (CAD Millions)Thunder Bay, ON and Peer Regions, 2006

Source: MPI Analysis (2008) . Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 94-581-XCB2006004. Bureau of Economic Analysis, 2008 Survey. (2006).

Median Age

9

25.7

29.3

31.0

33.8

37.3

37.8

38.2

40.2

41.8

43.4

43.8

College Station, TX

State College, PA

Bloomington, IL

Dalton, GA

Mount Vernon, WA

Battle Creek, MI

Rocky Mount, NC

Sherbrooke , QC

Thunder Bay, ON

Kelowna, BC

Trois-Rivières, QC

Median AgeThunder Bay, ON and Peer Regions, 2006

Source: Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 97-551-xcb2006012. U.S. Census Bureau, 2006 American Community Survey.

Overall Cost of Living

10

92.52

94.46

96.23

96.56

100.28

100.45

100.45

0.00

103.77

127.86

131.39

102.79

College Station, TX

Kelowna, BC

Rocky Mount, NC

Battle Creek, MI

Mount Vernon, WA

State College, PA

Sherbrooke , QC

Thunder Bay, ON

Trois-Rivières, QC

Dalton, GA

Bloomington, IL

Overall Cost of Living IndexThunder Bay, ON and Peer Regions, 2006

11

Overall Performance

Overall Performance

12

Overall PerformanceThunder

Bay, ON

Peer

Ranking

Peer

Minimum

Peer

Average

Peer

Maximum

Provincial/State

Average Population Growth (00-05) 0.8% 10 0% 5.8% 12.4% 5.7%

Job Growth (00-05) -3.4% 10 -3.6% 4.8% 19.9% 9.3%

GDP per capita, 2006 $43,000 6 $35,500 $45,000 $58,200 $45,000

Change in Average Wage (00-05) -2.4% 8 -11.2% -2.2% 3.7% 0.1%

Creativity Index 0.46 5 0.24 0.44 0.66 N/A

Population Growth

13

Job Growth

14

GDP per Capita

15

Change in Average Wage

16

Creativity Index

17

18

Technology

Technology

19

TechnologyThunder

Bay, ON

Peer

Ranking

Peer

Minimum

Peer

Average

Peer

Maximum

Provincial/State

AverageTotal Patents, 2005 2 11 2 18 42 517

Patents per 10,000, 2005 0.16 10 0.14 1.17 2.98 2.46

Patent Growth, Short Term (00-05) -3.3% 10 -4.5% 10.8% 56.7% -0.5%

North American High Tech LQ, 2006 0.51 6 0.22 0.58 1.54 0.63

North American Tech Pole Index 0.013 6 0.002 0.020 0.079 0.189

Total Patents

20

Patents per 10,000

21

Patent Growth, Short-term

22

North American High-Tech LQ

23

North American Tech-Pole Index

24

25

Talent

Talent

26

TalentThunder

Bay, ON

Peer

Ranking

Peer

Minimum

Peer

Average

Peer

Maximum

Provincial/State

Average

Creative Class as % of Workforce, 2006 26.9% 4 18.5% 24.9% 29.4% 26.1%

Super Creative Core as % of Workforce, 2006 14.7% 5 5.6% 11.9% 16.3% 11.0%

Pop > 25, Above High School below BA, 2006 58.2% N/A 51.7% 58.2% 65.5% 59.0%

Talent Index (Pop > 25, BA and above), 2006 13.0% 9 12.0% 21.4% 40.2% 21.7%

Pop > 25, Graduate and/or Professional Degree, 2006 3.5% 9 3.4% 7.8% 20.5% 7.5%

Brain Drain/Gain Index, 2006 0.63 6 0.00 0.69 1.28 N/A

Creative Class

27

Super Creative Core

28

Above High School, Below BA

29

Talent Index (BA and above)

30

Graduate / Professional Degrees

31

Brain Drain / Gain Index

32

33

Tolerance / Inclusiveness

Tolerance / Inclusiveness

34

ToleranceThunder

Bay, ON

Peer

Ranking

Peer

Minimum

Peer

Average

Peer

Maximum

Provincial/State

AverageVisible Minorities (% Pop), 2006 2.7% 5 0.0% 5.2% 28.1% 11.1%

Mosaic Index (% Pop), 2006 10.3% 4 2.2% 7.9% 15.0% 7.9%

Gay and Lesbian Index, 2006 0.77 5 0.64 0.79 1.03 0.81

Bohemian Index, 2006 0.67 3 0.16 0.46 1.05 0.69

Integration Index, 2006 0.83 6 1 0.76 0.92 N/A

Visible Minorities

35

Mosaic Index

36

Gay / Lesbian Index

37

Bohemian Index

38

Integration Index

39

40

Territorial Assets / Quality of Place

Territorial Assets / Quality of Place

41

Territorial AssetsThunder

Bay, ON

Peer

Ranking

Peer

Minimum

Peer

Average

Peer

Maximum

Social and Cultural AssetsArts and Cultural Establishments per 10,000, 2006 1.95 3 0.22 1.36 2.22

Resturants and Bars per 1,000, 2006 1.83 7 1.46 1.90 2.40

Student/Teacher Ratio, 2006 14.50 4 13.58 15.83 22.17

Doctor's per 1,000, 2006 0.81 5 0.00 1.13 3.42

Civic AssetsFederal Voter Turnout (%), 2004/2006 62% 5 40% 59% 66%

Voilent and Property Crime per Capita, 2006 0.09 10 0.02 0.06 0.12

Housing and Transportation AssetsPopulation Density (KM2), 2006 48 9 25.34 71.67 160.76

Median Housing Value to Income  Ratio, 2005 2.42 1 2.42 3.51 7.14

Drivers per Other Modes, 2006 9.77 3 4.84 28.69 169.98

Arts and Cultural Establishments per 10,000

42

Restaurants and Bars per 1,000

43

Student / Teacher Ratio

44

Doctors per 1,000

45

Federal Voter Turnout

46

Crime (Violent + Property) per Capita

47

Population Density (population per km^2)

48

Median Housing Value to Income Ratio

49

Drivers per Other Modes

50

For More Information

51

Summary StatisticsPeer

Minimum

Peer

Average

Peer

Maximum

Provincial/State

Average

Total Population, 2006 115,700 150,000 197,000 546,000

GDP (CAD millions) 2006 $5,000 $6,000 $9,000 $29,000

Median Age, 2006 25.7 36.6 43.8 37.5

Overall Cost of Living Index 92.5 104.3 131.4 101.5

Overall PerformanceThunder

Bay, ON

Peer

Ranking

Peer

Minimum

Peer

Average

Peer

Maximum

Provincial/State

Average

Population Growth (00-05) 0.8% 10 0% 5.8% 12.4% 5.7%

Job Growth (00-05) -3.4% 10 -3.6% 4.8% 19.9% 9.3%

GDP per capita, 2006 $43,000 6 $35,500 $45,000 $58,200 $45,000

Change in Average Wage (00-05) -2.4% 8 -11.2% -2.2% 3.7% 0.1%

Creativity Index 0.46 5 0.24 0.44 0.66 N/A

TechnologyThunder

Bay, ON

Peer

Ranking

Peer

Minimum

Peer

Average

Peer

Maximum

Provincial/State

Average

Total Patents, 2005 2 11 2 18 42 517

Patents per 10,000, 2005 0.16 10 0.14 1.17 2.98 2.46

Patent Growth, Short Term (00-05) -3.3% 10 -4.5% 10.8% 56.7% -0.5%

North American High Tech LQ, 2006 0.51 6 0.22 0.58 1.54 0.63

North American Tech Pole Index 0.013 6 0.002 0.020 0.079 0.189

TalentThunder

Bay, ON

Peer

Ranking

Peer

Minimum

Peer

Average

Peer

Maximum

Provincial/State

Average

Creative Class as % of Workforce, 2006 26.9% 4 18.5% 24.9% 29.4% 26.1%

Super Creative Core as % of Workforce, 2006 14.7% 5 5.6% 11.9% 16.3% 11.0%

Pop > 25, Above High School below BA, 2006 58.2% N/A 51.7% 58.2% 65.5% 59.0%

Talent Index (Pop > 25, BA and above), 2006 13.0% 9 12.0% 21.4% 40.2% 21.7%

Pop > 25, Graduate and/or Professional Degree, 2006 3.5% 9 3.4% 7.8% 20.5% 7.5%

Brain Drain/Gain Index, 2006 0.63 6 0.00 0.69 1.28 N/A

ToleranceThunder

Bay, ON

Peer

Ranking

Peer

Minimum

Peer

Average

Peer

Maximum

Provincial/State

Average

Visible Minorities (% Pop), 2006 2.7% 5 0.0% 5.2% 28.1% 11.1%

Mosaic Index (% Pop), 2006 10.3% 4 2.2% 7.9% 15.0% 7.9%

Gay and Lesbian Index, 2006 0.77 5 0.64 0.79 1.03 0.81

Bohemian Index, 2006 0.67 3 0.16 0.46 1.05 0.69

Integration Index, 2006 0.83 6 1 0.76 0.92 N/A

Territorial AssetsThunder

Bay, ON

Peer

Ranking

Peer

Minimum

Peer

Average

Peer

Maximum

Social and Cultural AssetsArts and Cultural Establishments per 10,000, 2006 1.95 3 0.22 1.36 2.22

Resturants and Bars per 1,000, 2006 1.83 7 1.46 1.90 2.40

Student/Teacher Ratio, 2006 14.50 4 13.58 15.83 22.17

Doctor's per 1,000, 2006 0.81 5 0.00 1.13 3.42

Civic AssetsFederal Voter Turnout (%), 2004/2006 62% 5 40% 59% 66%

Voilent and Property Crime per Capita, 2006 0.09 10 0.02 0.06 0.12

Housing and Transportation AssetsPopulation Density (KM2), 2006 48 9 25.34 71.67 160.76

Median Housing Value to Income Ratio, 2005 2.42 1 2.42 3.51 7.14

Drivers per Other Modes, 2006 9.77 3 4.84 28.69 169.98

Thunder Bay, ON123,000

$5,000

41.8

102.8

For More Information

• Richard Florida’s books–“The Rise of the Creative Class”

–“The Flight of the Creative Class”

–“Who’s Your City?”

• martinprosperity.org

• creativeclass.com

52

Thank You

Ronnie Sanders

Ronnie.Sanders@rotman.utoronto.ca

Patrick Adler

Patrick.Adler@rotman.utoronto.ca