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1
The Crisis Mode
in Ukrainian Retail Banking ...
... are we in the problem or
opportunity situation?
2
Half empty or Half full glass ... Or where is the bottom?
Economical cycle
A. Growth C. Decline
B. Plateau
D. Plateau
Where do we believe the Ukraine is at the moment: A) B) C) D)
3
Beginning of the year accelerates the trend from the 2014
11,28
-0,5-4,3
-10,7
-22,5
-5,4
11,1
-13,8 -14,5
-21,7
-32,0
-1,5
19,9
-4,5
13,7
2,8
-3,6
9,814,8 15,9
12,0
-9,6
-22,6
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2M2015
Промышленное производство СтроительствоСельское хозяйство Розничная торговля
9131 083
1 3171 409 1 455
1 567
+4,1%
+5,2% +0,2% 0% -6,8%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Номинальный ВВП Динамика реального ВВП, %
4
USD fx went crazy ….
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3
2012 2013 2014
97% 49%
Plateau
5
One year of the decline consumed the growth of 5 years ?
-
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
-
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Retail Deposits Market (mUAH; M$)
UAH Deposits $ deposits
-69bUAH
-8,7b$ +161bUAH +10,5b$
• The overall market 530bUAH with 2015 February 31% dynamics “thanks” to the UAH devaluation
• The concentration of the market increases, the TOP20 banks increased the share from 70% to 75% over
the past 12
6
Liquidity demand stimulates the buy at any price approach?
• Average deposit rate offer exceeded the 2008 crisis level and reached almost 22%
• Polarization of the market players where the customer offer for the effective rates ranges from 17% to 28%
• Rates are not shocking when compare them to the NBU refinancing rate of 30% and inflation 20%+
-
5,0
10,0
15,0
20,0
25,0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Cost of Liabilities
Cost of Liabilities
7
Lending market in the horizontal position?
• “fantastic dynamics is February … but the patient died in 2009
• The market focused in the short term high yield products: Cash Loans, Credit cards, POS Loans, Overdrafts.
• Growing pressure of NPLs with the open question for the currency denominated mortgages.
0
50 000
100 000
150 000
200 000
250 000
300 000
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
Retail Loans
1Y 1Y-5Y 5Y+
8
What do the customers do during the crisis ... That we do not like
Liabilities portoflio
I run to the bank to take as much chas as it is possible ...
When i place the my money with the bank i do it for the shortest possible period ...
The rates are never too high ...
I take the money from the deposit and put it to the safety deposit boxes ...
Lending
I am scared to take additional financial obligation ...
The municipal payments are more important than the loan ...
Why should i repay my mortgage at 25 UAH / $, when I buy apartment at 5 UAH / $ ...
I am not interesting in lending at 100% effective rate ..
Transactions and Services
The salary i receive i take twice per month from the ATM or the cash desk ...
I prefer the physical payment with the bank stamp on the confirmation ...
I will come with the friends to do the FX operations …
The bank should offer extensive network of physical presence preferably payment facilities ...
9
Crisis situation is the best moment to change …
10
There is always a way to manage the problem ...
Offer high price for the liquidity
Limit the access to the customer resources
Delay the realisation of the customer requests
Stop Lending
Increase the prices
Reduce the infrastruciture – Branches, Staffing
Reduce operational costs
11
There is always the opportunity in each problem ...
Focus on Core customer needs:
Salary processing
Payments and transfer
Switch from the Portfolio management to flow management
Give the customer the reason to stay with the resources
Help the customer to … manage the past portfolios
12
Where the flows are ... Customers Earn their salaries
0
40 000
80 000
120 000
160 000
200 000
QI QII QIII QIV QI QII QIII QIV
2013 2014
Remuneration flow
Salary Paid Social Transfers
• There are two major private remuneration flows 1.180 buah with the 611buah salaries and 570buah of social
transfers
• Annual dynamics in 2014 +2%
13
Where the flows are ... Customers pay for the goods and service
• The market of mass payments in Ukraine
reaches 400 bUAH per year
• 3 dominant players waiting for the
competition to come
• Independent players: Web Payment portals,
Payment terminal networks – growing share
Operational Excelllence +
Alternative Customer channels
14
Where the flows are ... Customers get the compensation from the guarantee fund
32
14
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2014 2015
47 45
0
10
20
30
40
50
2014 2015
• 40-50 buah of retail deposits “frozen” in the problematic Banks since the 2014
• Guarantee Fund searched for the Bank Agents …
Number of new “Problem” Banks Retail Deposits portfolios frozen bUAH
15
… from past portfolio management to new model through current flow ..
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