The planner’s nigeria+hygiene disposables (10.may.10)

NIGERIA…  “Opportuni1es”  

The  Flow  

•  A  Snapshot  of  Global  Outlook  

•  Nigeria  –  A  Bird’s  Eye  View  

•  Kaleidoscope  –  The  Youth  Market  

Global  Outlook  

2010  -­‐  Outlook  

•  The  good  news  about  2010  is  that  the  world  will  (beJer)  emerge  from  recession  and  post-­‐crisis  economic  landscape  will  become  clearer.  

•  Businesses…..can  at  least  begin  to  focus  on  strategies  for  future  growth,  rather  than  tacPcs  for  short-­‐term  survival.  

•  ……there  will  be  an  increasing  emphasis  on  emerging  markets,  many  of  which  will  power  ahead.  

•  It  is  a  year  for  businesses  to  be  ambi1ous….not  withdraw…..  

What  exactly  is  on  their  mind???  

NIGERIA  Green                    White                      Gold  

Demographics  

Land  Space:      923,768  Sq  Km  (slightly  more  than  twice  the  size  

of  California)          

EsEmated  PopulaEon  :    152  Million  (2009)  

 • Over  70%  of  popula/on  is  under  

30  years    

Media  Age:      18    

Pop.  Growth  Rate:    2.83%    

Urban  Growth  Rate:    5.3%    

Industrial  Growth:  2.4%  

AGE GRPPopulation both sexes

Population Male

Population Female

Percent Both

Sexes Percent

MalePercent Female

Total (All Ages) 128,765,768 65,108,289 63,657,479 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%0 - 4 21,304,234 10,731,929 10,572,305 16.5% 16.5% 16.6%5 - 9 17,685,859 8,911,126 8,774,733 13.7% 13.7% 13.8%

10 - 14 15,518,616 7,822,125 7,696,491 12.1% 12.0% 12.1%15 - 19 13,615,584 6,867,512 6,748,072 10.6% 10.5% 10.6%20 - 24 12,201,811 6,167,626 6,034,185 9.5% 9.5% 9.5%25 - 29 10,284,594 5,235,608 5,048,986 8.0% 8.0% 7.9%30 - 34 8,135,658 4,205,987 3,929,671 6.3% 6.5% 6.2%35 - 39 6,634,150 3,427,358 3,206,792 5.2% 5.3% 5.0%40 - 44 5,488,984 2,814,948 2,674,036 4.3% 4.3% 4.2%45 - 49 4,502,344 2,314,317 2,188,027 3.5% 3.6% 3.4%50 - 54 3,774,988 1,908,069 1,866,919 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%55 - 59 3,216,615 1,604,919 1,611,696 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%60 - 64 2,472,275 1,222,647 1,249,628 1.9% 1.9% 2.0%65 - 69 1,774,303 860,160 914,143 1.4% 1.3% 1.4%70 - 74 1,164,689 554,218 610,471 0.9% 0.9% 1.0%75 - 79 642,574 300,605 341,969 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%

80+ 348,490 159,135 189,355 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%

Addressable Urban Market

of 58m by 2010 @ 2.4%

Growth Rate

40.1% or 51m Addressable

Market

Over 70% or 90.6m below

30Yrs!

Source : U.S. Census Bureau, International Database – 2008Est.

Demographics    Over  70%  of  populaEon  is  under  30  years    

Socio-­‐Economic  Profile  

LSM  Group   %   Household  Monthly  Income   %  

LSM  1  (E)   3.7   Less  than  N5,000   0.6  

LSM  2  (E)   4.5   5,000  –  20,000   9.8  

LSM  3  (D)   1.7   20,000  –  40,000   19.3  

LSM  4  (D)   29.4   40,000  –  60,000   10.9  

LSM  5  (D)   15.7   60,000  –  80,000   5.4  

LSM  6  (C2)   17.5   80,000  –  100,000   2.3  

LSM  7  (C2)   8.2   100,000  –  140,000   0.9  

LSM  8  (C2)   5.8   140,000  –  200,000   0.7  

LSM  9  (C1)   5.9   200,000+   7.1  

LSM  10  (C1)   2.9   Refused/Unknown   43.0  

LSM  11  (B)   3.9  

LSM  12  (A)   1.0  

The addressable market for the target category is the C1C2D, with an average income of between NGN50, 000 – NGN250, 000.

This is an optimistic market for uptake of disposables, especially hygiene based products.

A  Bird’s  Eye  View  •  Economy  is  largely  agrarian,  with  around  60%  of  Nigerians  

working  in  the  agricultural  sector.  

•  InflaPon  rate  was  maintained  on  single  digit  for  24  months  (Oct  2006  –  Sept  2008).  

•  It  has  since  then  grown  as  high  as  13.4%  (July  2009).  •  The  Consumer  Price  Index  as  at  July  2009,  ranges  between  

N180.00  –  N240.00.  

•  Nigeria  has  one  of  the  fastest  growing  telecomms  market  in  the  major  emerging  market  (i.e.  MTN,  Zain,  Globacom  &  E/salat)  

The Emerging Consumer

Psychologically…..  

Time  Magazine  (Dec  2008)  rated  Nigerians  as  the  happiest  people  on  the  Earth…the  boundless  opPmism  in  the  face  of  economic  instability  is  almost  mythical  in  nature.  

FASHION  

 MUSIC  

Nigerian Music Stars are dominating the African Music Scene and exporting Nigerian music to the rest of the World

 MUSIC  Music has now become a great tool for shaping consumer outlook and behaviour across Nigerian.

 MINIPRENEURS  

Technology is enabling a new breed of entrepreneurs

 MIY  |  MAKE  IT  YOURSELF  

IT and Telecommunications are empowering new knowledge creating a new breed of ‘producers’, creating Open Innovation

Evolu1on  of  Consumer  Needs  

Experiences

Services

Goods

Commodities

Render

Improve

Control

Supply

Authenticity

Quality

Costs

Availability

Economic Output

Business Imperative

Consumer Sensibility

Source: Joseph Pine, TED Talks 2009

Rendering  Authen1city  

This above all: to thine own self be true, And it must follow, as the night the day, Thou canst not then be false to any man.

- William Shakespeare

WHEN YOUR Brand Truth MARRIES YOUR Brand Promise, THEY GIVE BIRTH TO CONSUMER ENGAGEMENT/RELEVANCE.

Rendering  Authen1city  

IS what it says it is

Real Real

Fake Real Fake Fake

Real Fake

Is NOT what it says it is

IS true to itself Is NOT true to itself

Ideal Positioning

A  Look  at  the  Hygiene  Disposables  (HD)  Market  

Hygiene Disposables

Feminine Care

Baby Care

Menstrual Pads

Facial Wipes

Baby Diapers

Baby Wipes

Panty Liners

A market defined by the need to maintain personal hygiene in a

decent manner…

The  Players…  

Tampons & Other Brands

A  Snapshot  of  PossibiliPes  •  The  combined  market  for  Hygiene  Disposables  (HD)  –  covering  Feminine  Care  and  Baby  Care  –  also  have  significant  potenPal.  

•  The  market  for  Feminine  Care  is  the  key  market  driving  HD  in  Nigeria  and  it  has  grown  between  2001-­‐2006,  at  an  average  annual  rate  of  14.1%.    

•  Presently  the  leading  player  in  the  market  is  Procter  &  Gamble  (P&G),  followed  by  Johnson  &  Johnson  and  Kimberly-­‐Clark  CorporaPon  .    

Source: Datamonitor Report on Feminine Care in Nigeria, 2009

Birth rate: 36.65 births/1,000 population (2009 est.)

Source: CIA World Factbook, Feb 2010

Year Birth rate Rank Percent Change Date of Information

2003 38.75 30 2003 est.

2004 40.65 21 4.90 % 2004 est.

2005 40.65 22 0.00 % 2005 est.

2006 40.43 21 -0.54 % 2006 est.

2007 40.2 20 -0.57 % 2007 est.

2008 37.23 31 -7.39 % 2008 est.

2009 36.65 30 -1.56 % 2009 est.

2010 36.65 28 0.00 % 2009 est.

Source: CIA World Factbook, Feb 2010

Total fertility rate (TFR): 4.91 children born/woman (2009 est.)

Approx. 5 kids/female, in a lifetime

Source: CIA World Factbook, Feb 2010

Year Total fertility rate Rank Percent Change Date of Information

2003 5.4 30 2003 est.

2004 5.53 24 2.41 % 2004 est.

2005 5.53 23 0.00 % 2005 est.

2006 5.49 23 -0.72 % 2006 est.

2007 5.45 22 -0.73 % 2007 est.

2008 5.01 32 -8.07 % 2008 est.

2009 4.91 32 -2.00 % 2009 est.

2010 4.91 31 0.00 % 2009 est.

Source: CIA World Factbook, Feb 2010

AGE GRPPopulation both sexes

Population Male

Population Female

Percent Both

Sexes Percent

MalePercent Female

Total (All Ages) 128,765,768 65,108,289 63,657,479 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%0 - 4 21,304,234 10,731,929 10,572,305 16.5% 16.5% 16.6%5 - 9 17,685,859 8,911,126 8,774,733 13.7% 13.7% 13.8%

10 - 14 15,518,616 7,822,125 7,696,491 12.1% 12.0% 12.1%15 - 19 13,615,584 6,867,512 6,748,072 10.6% 10.5% 10.6%20 - 24 12,201,811 6,167,626 6,034,185 9.5% 9.5% 9.5%25 - 29 10,284,594 5,235,608 5,048,986 8.0% 8.0% 7.9%30 - 34 8,135,658 4,205,987 3,929,671 6.3% 6.5% 6.2%35 - 39 6,634,150 3,427,358 3,206,792 5.2% 5.3% 5.0%40 - 44 5,488,984 2,814,948 2,674,036 4.3% 4.3% 4.2%45 - 49 4,502,344 2,314,317 2,188,027 3.5% 3.6% 3.4%50 - 54 3,774,988 1,908,069 1,866,919 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%55 - 59 3,216,615 1,604,919 1,611,696 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%60 - 64 2,472,275 1,222,647 1,249,628 1.9% 1.9% 2.0%65 - 69 1,774,303 860,160 914,143 1.4% 1.3% 1.4%70 - 74 1,164,689 554,218 610,471 0.9% 0.9% 1.0%75 - 79 642,574 300,605 341,969 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%

80+ 348,490 159,135 189,355 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Database

Huge Market

Potential

With a fairly high

frequency of usage…

Approx 59% of Females

or 38m between

10 - 49Yrs!

Source : U.S. Census Bureau, International Database – 2008Est.

Demographics      –  Feminine  Care  Market  

AGE GRPPopulation both sexes

Population Male

Population Female

Percent Both

Sexes Percent

MalePercent Female

Total (All Ages) 128,765,768 65,108,289 63,657,479 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%0 - 4 21,304,234 10,731,929 10,572,305 16.5% 16.5% 16.6%5 - 9 17,685,859 8,911,126 8,774,733 13.7% 13.7% 13.8%

10 - 14 15,518,616 7,822,125 7,696,491 12.1% 12.0% 12.1%15 - 19 13,615,584 6,867,512 6,748,072 10.6% 10.5% 10.6%20 - 24 12,201,811 6,167,626 6,034,185 9.5% 9.5% 9.5%25 - 29 10,284,594 5,235,608 5,048,986 8.0% 8.0% 7.9%30 - 34 8,135,658 4,205,987 3,929,671 6.3% 6.5% 6.2%35 - 39 6,634,150 3,427,358 3,206,792 5.2% 5.3% 5.0%40 - 44 5,488,984 2,814,948 2,674,036 4.3% 4.3% 4.2%45 - 49 4,502,344 2,314,317 2,188,027 3.5% 3.6% 3.4%50 - 54 3,774,988 1,908,069 1,866,919 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%55 - 59 3,216,615 1,604,919 1,611,696 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%60 - 64 2,472,275 1,222,647 1,249,628 1.9% 1.9% 2.0%65 - 69 1,774,303 860,160 914,143 1.4% 1.3% 1.4%70 - 74 1,164,689 554,218 610,471 0.9% 0.9% 1.0%75 - 79 642,574 300,605 341,969 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%

80+ 348,490 159,135 189,355 0.3% 0.2% 0.3%Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Database

Huge Market

Potential

@ 2 average births

per female = 42m

(optimistic)

Source : U.S. Census Bureau, International Database – 2008Est.

Demographics      –  Baby  Care  Market  

Approx 33% of Females

or 21m between

20 - 44Yrs!

•  At  a  Pme  when  the  market  was  dominated  by  350gm  can  by  Peak  Milk,  the  challenge  was  one  of  access.  

•  A  large  percentage  of  consumers  could  not  access  milk,  due  the  level  of  their  disposable  income.  

•  Promasidor  solved  the  problem  of  access,  through  innovaPve  packaging  strategy.  

•  This  enabled  them  to  not  only  enter  the  market,  they  also  grew  it.  

A  Possible  Entry  Strategy…  (A  Case  Study  of  Cowbell)  

•  In  this  Hygiene  Disposables  market,  accessibility  is  also  an  issue.  

•  An  untapped  market  base,  the  C1C2D,  are  not  able  to  conveniently  access  products  in  this  category.  

•  The  entry  strategy  here  should  be  built  on  Pricing  combined  with  Top-­‐of-­‐the-­‐Standard  posiPoning.  

•  This  will  give  the  confidence  derived  from  Access  Quality.  

A  Possible  Entry  Strategy…  (Learnings  from  Cowbell)  

Let’s  Discuss….