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The Texas Economy
Jesse Thompson Regional Business Economist
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch October 2013
Austin
San Antonio Houston
Oil & Gas Extraction
U.S. Oil Production Growth
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Jan-1981 Aug-1985 Mar-1990 Oct-1994 May-1999 Dec-2003 Jul-2008
Jan 1981=100 After 30 years of decline,
tight oil drives production growth
New Mexico
U.S.
Texas
SOURCE: Energy Information Agency.
Texas Basin Drilling on Different Trends
0
20
40
60
80
100 Barnett
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
02
/04
/11
04
/04
/11
06
/04
/11
08
/04
/11
10
/04
/11
12
/04
/11
02
/04
/12
04
/04
/12
06
/04
/12
08
/04
/12
10
/04
/12
12
/04
/12
02
/04
/13
Eagle Ford
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
02
/04
/11
04
/04
/11
06
/04
/11
08
/04
/11
10
/04
/11
12
/04
/11
02
/04
/12
04
/04
/12
06
/04
/12
08
/04
/12
10
/04
/12
12
/04
/12
02
/04
/13
Permian Vertical
Horizontal
Directional
Total Wages In Texas Shale*
*Growth rates are year-to-year. Adjusted using U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures. SOURCE: Quarterly Census of Wages and Employment; Bureau of Labor Statistics
-10
-5
0
5
10
15 Percent Barnet Wage Growth
-5
0
5
10
15
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Eagle Ford
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Percent Permian Basin Wage
Growth*
Employment Wages
Outlook
Refining & Petrochemicals
Refining
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Aug-2009 Aug-2010 Aug-2011 Aug-2012 Aug-2013
Values Gulf Coast Downstream Margins
Ethylene cash margins*
Pace refining margins: Gulf Coast**
*Based on ethane feedstock (cents/lbs). **Based on West Texas Sour - RFG ($/barrel). SOURCE: Oil and Gas Journal.
International Trade
International Trade
International Trade
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Aug-2009 Aug-2010 Aug-2011 Aug-2012 Aug-2013
Percent
Real exports and Imports
Exports
Imports
NOTE: Three-month year-to-year growth. Adjusted using Houston Consumer Price index
International Trade
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
Jan
-20
00
Jul-
20
00
Jan
-20
01
Jul-
20
01
Jan
-20
02
Jul-
20
02
Jan
-20
03
Jul-
20
03
Jan
-20
04
Jul-
20
04
Jan
-20
05
Jul-
20
05
Jan
-20
06
Jul-
20
06
Jan
-20
07
Jul-
20
07
Jan
-20
08
Jul-
20
08
Jan
-20
09
Jul-
20
09
Jan
-20
10
Jul-
20
10
Jan
-20
11
Jul-
20
11
Jan
-20
12
Jul-
20
12
Jan
-20
13
Thousands of barrels U.S. Shale pushes out lighter foreign oils.
Heavier Oils* Lighter Oils**
*Oils with API of 25 degrees or less. **Oils with API of more than 25 degrees.
Labor Market Conditions
Texas employment growth volatile in 2013
Texas employment growth volatile in 2013
Texas employment growth volatile in 2013
Labor Market Conditions
Real Estate
Real Estate
Real Estate
Real Estate
Outlook
Outlook
Outlook
Outlook
The Texas Economy
Jesse Thompson Regional Business Economist
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Houston Branch October 2013
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