"Whither Strategic Foresight?"

“Whither Strategic Foresight?”

Professor John S RatcliffeBrussels

September 2011

Urban Foresight As A Tool For Territorial Governance

Is this humanity’s last century – or a century

that sets the world on a course towards a

spectacular new future?

A NEW MINDSET

“The problems of the world cannot possibly be solved by sceptics or cynics whose horizons are limited by the obvious realities. We need men who can dream of things that never were.” (John F. Kennedy)

“Flight For The 21st Century: ‘Icarus’ Or ‘The Phoenix’ ”

• A Confluence of Powerful Trends• Problems Seem Intractable• The Demographics of Discord• The ‘New Players’• Problems are Structural

“The unusual and the unknown make us either over confident or overly fearful” (Gaius Julius Caesar)

The Harbingers of Change

“Icarus” – Prevailing Pessimism

• Population Growth• Climate Change• Food and Water• Safety and Security• Energy Deficit

“If we don't change direction soon, we'll end up where we're going.” (Irwin Corey)

“The Phoenix” – Rational Optimism

• Urban Prospect• Developing Technology• A New Economy• The Natural Step• New Nuclear

“A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty”(Winston Churchill)

The Need for Vision

“No problem can be solved from the same level of consciousness that created it. We must learn to see the world anew” (Albert Einstein)

“A vision without a task is but a dream

A task without a vision is drudgery

A vision with a task is the hope of the world”

(Inscription in a church, Sussex, England, 1730)

Present Problems

• Change, Complexity and Risk / Uncertainty

• Lack of an Integrated Approach• Short-term Orientation• Obsolescence of ‘Predict and Provide’

Model• Limited Collaboration of Stakeholders

“It’s not the strong that survive – but the most adaptable” (Charles Darwin)

Why Foresight?• Running a 21st century city region

more complex• Need to understand driving forces of

change• Trends matter – weak signals count• Anticipation and exploration

prerequisite• Rehearsing alternative futures

“The Empires of the future are the Empires of the mind” (Winston Churchill)

What Is Foresight?

• Strategic foresight (SF) is having a view of what can be done by organisations and societies today to positively influence the future.

• SF is the ability to create and maintain a high-quality, coherent and functional forward view, and to use the insights arising in civic and organisationally useful ways.

• SF is thinking about, debating and shaping the future.

“Have deep roots, a strong trunk, live long by looking long.” (Lao Tzu)

Foresight Teams Contribution

• Anticipating emerging issues• Identifying unintended

consequences• Getting a sense of the big picture• Drawing on a wide range of

information sources• Involving all concerned

“Business today consists of persuading crowds”

STAGE OBJECTIVES OUTPUT

Framing Scoping the project : attitude, audience, work environment, rationale and purpose, objectives and teams.

Focal Issue

Scanning Collecting the information : the system, history and context of the issue and how to scan for information regarding the future of

issue.

Information

Forecasting Describing baseline and alternative futures : drivers and uncertainties, tools, diverging and converging approaches, and

alternatives.

Baseline andAlternative Futures

Visioning Choosing a preferred future : implications of the forecast, and envisioning desired outcomes.

Preferred Future

Planning Organising to achieve the vision : strategy, options and plans. Strategy and Plans

Acting Implementing the plan : communicating the results, developing action agenda and institutionalising strategic thinking and

intelligence systems.

Action

Strategic Foresight

Set the Strategic Question

Identify the Driving Forces of Change

Determine the Main Issues and Trends

Clarify the Level of Impact and Degree of Uncertainty

Establish Scenario Logics

Create Different Scenarios

Test Policy Options

Identify Turning Points

Produce Prospective

Move to Strategic Planning

Divergence

Convergence

Emergence

High to Low Importance

Strategic Conversations

Horizon Scanning

Delphi Survey

Cross-Impact Analysis

Prospective Workshops

Clustering

Polarising

Ranking

VERGE

Creative Writing

Wind Tunnel Testing

Gaming and Simulation

Causal Layered Analysis

Prospective Through Scenarios

The Strategic Foresight Process

• Framing the Strategic Question(s)• Scanning the Horizon• Forecasting Alternative Futures• Visioning A Preferred Future• Planning Strategic Options• Acting on an Agreed Agenda

“Every man takes the limits of his own field of vision for the limits of the world” (Arthur Schopenhauer)

Framing The Strategic Question

• Adjust Attitudes• Recognise the Character of

Change• Understand the Rationale and

Purpose• Weave ‘Outside and Then’ with

‘Inside and Now’• Set Objectives

“It is not the answer that enlightens but the question” (Eugène Ionesco)

Scanning The Horizon

• Map the System• Conduct a Stakeholder Analysis• Start by Looking Backwards• Explore the Unfamiliar• Consult ‘Remarkable People’

"Change is the law of life. And those who look only to the past or present are certain to miss the future." (John F. Kennedy)

Forecasting Alternative Futures

• Identify Drivers, Trends, Issues• Look for Turning Points• Generate Divergent Ideas• Prioritise Convergent Views• Form Alternative Futures

“If you can dream it, you can do it” (Walt Disney)

Visioning A Preferred Future

• Identify Implications/Unintended Consequences• Think of the Longer-Term• Challenge Assumptions• Ask ‘What if ?’ Questions• Develop a Strategic Vision and Goals

“You can analyse the past and appraise the present, but you have to design the future”

Planning Strategic Options

• Think Strategically to Provoke Strategic Conversations

• Spot Areas of Strategic Choice by Identifying Critical Branching Points

• Base Strategic Recommendations On Organisations Distinctive Attributes

• Evaluate Proposed Strategy Along Multiple Dimensions

• Have Contingency Plans for Unexpected Surprises

“The future is the only kind of property that the masters willingly concede to slaves” (Albert Camus)

Acting On An Agreed Agenda

• Communicate Results Effectively• Create an Action Plan with a Sense of Urgency• Identify Milestones on the Path Towards a

Preferred Future• Establish an Intelligence System• Institutionalise Strategic Thinking

“You can only predict things after they have happened” (Eugène Ionesco)

What Are The Prospects?“Can we go on like this?”

• Meta-forces

• Macro-forces

• Micro-forces

“Reason is, and ought only to be the slave of the passions and can never pretend to any other office than to serve and obey them” (David Hume, 1783)

Figure 1: Kondratieff cycles – long waves of prosperity.Rolling 10-year yield on the S&P 500 since 1814 till March 2009 (in %, p. a.)

Source: Datastream; Illustration: Allianz Global Investors Capital Market Analysis

However, the history of modern societies suggest also something for our future….

Three Meta-forces

• VALUES

• VISIONS

• VECTORS

“Unless the investment in children is made, all of humanity's most fundamental long-term problems will remain fundamental long-term problems.” (UNICEF)

ValuesThe Transformation Towards

A Sustainable Responsible Civilization

“All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.” (Edmund Burke)

Ecological footprint

Human Development Index*

Source: WWF Living Planet Report 2006 "Report of the World Commission on Environment and Development."

UP

DO

WN

*HDI = life expectancy + education level + purchasing power

Improving people’s health and well-being while respecting the limits of natural resources

Health & Well-being

The Great Global Values Debate

• Millennium Development Goals

• Cultures Consequences

• Spiral Dynamics

• World Values Survey

• Interfaith Dialogue

“Believe those who are seeking the truth; doubt those who find it” (André Gide )

Cultural Values Map

“What we call basic truths are simply the ones we discover after all the others” (Albert Camus)

• Self-Aware Autonomy

• Empathetic Universalism

• Progress and Ethics

• The Social Aspiration Gap

• Signposts to 21st C. Enlightenment

Visions

“Government is a badge of lost innocence… For were the impulses of conscience clear, uniform and irresistibly obeyed, man would need no other lawgiver” (Thomas Paine)

“Twenty-first Century Enlightenment”

To a sustainable world in 2050

From business-as-usual

TODAY

To a sustainable world in 2050

From business-as-usual

2050To a sustainable world in 2050

From business-as-usual

Vectors

• Globalisation• Urbanisation• Environmentalism • Internet• Social Media• Faith – Based Movements• Terrorism• Pandemics

“The Internet is becoming the town square for the global village of tomorrow.” (Bill Gates )

“An agent that acts as a carrier or transporter”

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Risks Interconnection Map 2011

STRATEGIC FORESIGHT 2030

“Just Imagine!”

Professor John S RatcliffeJuly 2011

Imagineering the Built Environment

Exordium

• A Changing World• The New, The Many, The Connected• A “Grand Transformation”• ‘Metanoia’ – And the Learning Organisation• The Need for Strategic Foresight

“To shape the future you must first imagine it.” (Charles Handy)

Horizon Scanning

Strategic Conversations

Futures Workshops

Questionnaire Survey

Divergence

Convergence

Emergence

Set the Strategic Question

Consider the Crucibles of Change

Explore the Built Environment: Driving Forces

Identify the Institutional Issues

Establish the Key Dimensions of Uncertainty

Create Alternative Future Scenarios

Agree A Preferred Future

Determine Strategic Policy Fields

Propose An Action Agenda

Move To Strategic Planning

Brainstorm

The Strategic Foresight Process

“Have deep roots, a strong trunk, live long by looking long.” (Lao Tzu)

Alternative Futures

Emergence

“Jazz”

“Lords of Misrule”

“Wise Counsels”

Society & Culture

Enlightened LeadershipTechnology & Innovation

Economics & FinanceEnvironment & Ethics

Politics & Governance

Uncertainty & Change

Divergence Convergence

Preferred Visio

n

Synergy with Academe

Cultivating Collegiality

Suffusing Sustainability

Fostering Foresight

The Visioning Progression

“If you want to know how a man thinks, imagine the world when they were young” (Napoleon Bonaparte)

Stage One: Divergence

“Only those who risk going too far can possibly find out how far one can go”

Economics & Finance

Society & Culture

Technology & Innovation

Environment & Ethics Politics & Governance

Uncertainty & Change

Divergence

The Five Crucibles Of Change

1. Financial Markets and a New Economics2. Global Governance and Social Disparity3. Planetary Stewardship in an Age of

Scarcity4. Creative Cities with Connected

Communities5. Productivity, Partnership and People

“They must often change who would be constant in happiness or wisdom.” (Confucius)

1. Financial Markets And A New Economics

• Age of sustainable living in a resource constrained world

• The “Depletion of the West”• From an energy to an information

economy• Restoration of trust• Advent of “behavioural economics”

“Let a hundred flowers blossom, let a hundred schools of thought contend.” (Mao Tse-Tung)

2. Global Governance And Social Disparity

• Widening gap between rich and poor• Capacity and quality of infrastructure• A multi-polar world• The illegal economy• World’s supply of capital

“All human beings are interconnected, one with all other elements in creation.” (Henry Reed)

3. Planetary Stewardship In An Age Of Scarcity

• Onset of climate change towards global warming

• Process of urbanisation• Energy deficits loom• Food system in crisis• Water scarcity and water shortages

“We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors, we borrow it from our children.” (Native American Proverb)

4. Creative Cities With Connected Communities

• Quality of life• Competitiveness through creativity• Shared vision and identity• Connectivity• Leaders and leadership

“Anyone who believes that exponential growth can go on forever in a finite world is either a madman or an economist” (Kenneth Boulding)

5. Productivity, Partnership And People

• Boosting productivity and promoting innovation

• Role of the state and market capitalism• Public-private partnerships• Global companies• Localism and strengthening local

democracy

“For each of our actions there are only consequences.” (James Lovelock)

Built Environment: Exploring the Driving Forces of Change• Society and Culture• Technology and Innovation• Economics and Finance• Environment and Ethics• Politics and Governance

“Information is a monster that feeds off itself, while starving us of meaning, knowledge and wisdom.” (T.S. Eliot)

Society and Culture

• Cross disciplinarity, networks and systems• Global youth and young talent• Migration, diversity and mobility• The ‘experience environment’• New players, new sectors and new places

and spaces

“He who does not trust enough, will not be trusted” (Lao Tzu)

Technology and Innovation

• Convergence, change and connectivity• Automation and augmentation• Prefabrication, customisation and lean

construction• Smarter buildings and smarter services• Social networks, research and

consultancy

“Every man takes the limits of his own field of vision for the limits of the world” (Arthur Shopenhauer)

Economics and Finance

• Property as a physical and functional asset

• Attractiveness of second- and third-tier cities

• Growth of global corporations• Movement from quantity to quality• New period of unprecedented global

development

“In a country well governed poverty is something to be ashamed of. In a country badly governed wealth is something to be ashamed of” (Confucius, 5th Century BC)

Environment and Ethics

• Social worth and social responsibility• Urbanisation challenge to planners and

developers• Risk management and competition• Green buildings and environmental

performance• Trust, responsibility and judgement

“A little rebellion now and then is a good thing” (Thomas Jefferson)

Politics and Governance

• Transparency and accountability• Internationalisation and partnership• Property as a ‘people’ business• New metrics for a new era• Leadership and futuring

“It is not the answer that enlightens but the question” (Eugène Ionesco)

Stage Two: Emergence

"All successful men and women are big dreamers. They imagine what their future could be, ideal in every respect, and then they work every day toward their distant vision, that goal or purpose." (Brian Tracy)

Alternative Futures

Emergence

“Jazz”

“Lords of Misrule”

“Wise Counsels”

Dimensions of Uncertainty

“Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory, tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat” (Sun Tzu)

Global

Sustainability

Governance

Connectivity

Responsibility

Leadership

Stability

Security

Institutional

Influence

Regulation

Internationalisation

Enrolment

Collegiality

Scenarios

“The way you can go – Isn’t the real way.The name you can say – Isn’t the real name” (Lao Tzu)

“Jazz”Multi-polarity with dynamic reciprocity

“Lords of Misrule”Muddling along from decline to disaster

“Wise Counsels”Transformation and the rise to maturity

NOWRegulation Liberation

LessSustainable

MoreSustainable

Vulnerable

Resilient

Resilience of Global

Ecosystem

Human Social Systems

Jazz

Lords of Misrule

Wise Counsels

Critical Dimensions of Uncertainty

“In politics, if you want anything said, ask a man; if you want anything done, ask a woman” (Margaret Thatcher)

“Jazz”Multi-Polarity with Dynamic Reciprocity

• Global village of 2030 – mutual give and take• World of cultural change and innovation• Transparency a leitmotif of past 30 years• Diverse players – new performers• Global free market – sound legal systems• Government most active at local level• Mercantilism prevails – sustainability

rudimentary

"In a time of drastic change it is the learners who inherit the future. The learned usually find themselves equipped to live in a world that no longer exists." (Eric Hoffer)

“Lords of Misrule”Muddling Along From Decline to Disaster

• Familiar world – but failing• Modest economic reforms only• Ignorance about complexity of planets problems

persist• Political stalemates on strategic issues• Too many interests – no clear leadership• Parochialism – partisanship – protectionism• Sustainability equals “First Raise Our Growth”

“When there is a great cry that something should be done, you can depend on it that something remarkably silly will be done”

“Wise Counsels”Transformation And The Rise To Maturity

• Age of “new powers and new alliances”• Radically different world order materializing• New leaders and new social institutions• Strengthening of government and governance• Millennium Goals met – if a little late• New economics emerging – resource based• Global communications networks and progress

“The future is always present, as a promise, a lure and a temptation” (Karl Popper)

Convergence

“The present system of global cooperation is not working sufficiently. [We need to] look at all issues on the global agenda in a systemic, integrated and strategic way. We have to rethink our values; we are living together in a global society with many different cultures. We have to redesign our processes; how do we deal with the issues and challenges on the global agenda?” (Klaus Schwab)

Enlightened Leadership

Convergence

Preferred Visio

n

Synergy with Academe

Cultivating Collegiality

Suffusing Sustainability

Fostering Foresight

The Built Environment: A Preferred Future

1. Be authentic, and never neglect the basics2. Plan and commit for sustainability and

liveability with respect for the public realm3. Support the creation and maintenance of

infrastructure and property assets as a framework for economic development

4. Embrace diversity and commit to social equity5. Be bold, imaginative and demonstrate

leadership

“Tomorrows successful leaders will value principles more than they value their company” (Stephen Covey)

Strategic Policy Options

“Hell is a place where nothing connects with nothing” (Dante)

Core Purpose

Fostering Foresight

Cultivating Collegiality

Enlightened Leadership

Suffusing Sustainability

Synergy with

Academe

Lessons Learned

An evaluation of practice• Purpose• Participants• Process• Method• Implementation

“I like the dreams of the future better than the history of the past” (Thomas Jefferson)

Purpose

• Foster Client Comprehension• Establish Clear Goals• Connect with Strategic Planning• Resolve whether Learning or Planning• Decide Target Audience• Determine Issues and Topics• Pose Pertinent Strategic Question• Develop Shared Vision• Create Common Language• Remember Not Prediction• Attend to Organisational Culture

“With the past, I have nothing to do; nor with the future. I live now” (Ralph Waldo Emerson)

Participants• Gain Management Support/Involvement• Include Decision-Makers at Outset• Take Care in Team Selection• Include Diverse Interest Groups/Key Actors• Take Testimony from Experts• Introduce ‘Remarkable’ People• Choose Experienced Facilitators• Use Consultants Prudently• Select Right Interviewers/Interviewees• Find a ‘Champion’

“Look before, or you'll find yourself behind” (Benjamin Franklin)

Process• Recognise Different Ways of Futuring• Do Not Limit Scope of Exercise• Time and Timing All Important• Establish Links Elsewhere• Be Eclectic• Have Breadth and Depth in Foresighting• Conduct Pilot Study• Hold Induction/Training Workshop• Process Should be Continuous and Cumulative• Do Not Underestimate Amount of Work• Foster Executive Process

“The future is a convenient place for dreams” (Anatole France)

Implementation• Determine Responsibility for Action• Make Recommendations Simple and Relevant• Demonstrate Feasibility of Recommendations• Appreciate Value of Other Informal Results• Connect Costs and Benefits• Devise Set of Indicators• Be Innovative in Presentation• Provide Proper Framework for Results• Be Aware Success is Hard to Pinpoint• Recognise Learning is an Iterative Process• Gain Support

“Tomorrow will give us something to think about” (Marcus Tullius Cicero)

Method• Employ Recognisable Formal Method• Decide Inductive or Deductive Approach• Conduct Environmental Scanning• Appreciate Brainstorming at Heart• Pay Heed to Strategic Conversations• Have Awareness of Value of Metaphor• Anecdotes/Aphorisms Helpful• Invoke Feeling of Crisis• Include Relevant and Compelling Information• Arrange Special Forms of Presentation• Concentrate on Pivotal Uncertainties

“Never let the future disturb you. You will meet it, if you have to, with the same weapons of reason which today arm you against the present” (Marcus Aurelius)

Embedding Futures ThinkingFive Most Important Ingredients

• Continuous Environmental Scanning

• Link to Strategy and Outcomes

• Invocation of Crisis

• Commitment of Leadership at All Levels

• Delivering Competitive Advantage

“He who controls the present, controls the past. He who controls the past, controls the future” (George Orwell)

Embedding Futures ThinkingFive Greatest Obstacles

• Overcoming Resistance to Change

• Convincing Organisations that Long-Term Thinking is Possible

• Extracting Organisations Away from a Reliance on Facts and Predictions

• Building and Understanding of What Futures and Foresight Can Accomplish

• Remembering Why Futures Practitioners Are There

“I look to the future because that's where I'm going to spend the rest of my life” (George F. Burns)

“Therefore hold to the things which are reliable Look to simplicity; embrace purity Lessen the self: diminish desire”

(Tao Te Ching)

Counter Implementation Games• Raising / lowering the level of abstraction• Seeking more information / reflection• Anti-technique bias – “lets get on with it”!• Philosophical, legal, theological viewpoints• Saluting the idea, but no commitment• Wise owl• Flippancy and facetiousness• Lie low, rely on inertia• Insider knowledge• “But we’re still good”

“There are those who look at things the way they are and ask why... I dream of things that never were, and ask why not?” (Robert Kennedy)

Enlightened Leadership:Providing Global Thought Leadership for the Build Environment and Promoting Authentic and

Aware Leadership Qualities Amongst Members

"...you better start swimmin'Or you'll sink like a stone.For the times they are a-changin'." (Bob Dylan)