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Until a few years ago the term Big Data was only known to a limited group of experts. Now it is nearly impossible to visit a website or read an article without stumbling across Big Data. A Google query results in over 1.5 billion hits in less than half a second, two years ago this was only one fifth of that number. Many times Big Data is positioned as the answer to everything. It is the end of theory as former Wired editor Chris Anderson wants us to belief. The promise of Big Data seems to imply that in the sheer size of data sets there lurks some kind of magic. Will it make Operations Research obsolete?
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Big Data The end of Optimisation
John Poppelaars Vesting Conference 2014
Big Data Analytics produces uncanny
accurate predictions
http://www.forbes.com/sites/kashmirhill/2012/02/16/how-target-figured-out-a-teen-girl-was-pregnant-before-her-father-did/
Big Data correlations tell us what we need to know
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v457/n7232/full/nature07634.html
No need to sample, when we have all data
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-18367213
“All models are wrong, and increasingly you can succeed without them”
Peter Norvig, Google
http://archive.wired.com/science/discoveries/magazine/16-07/pb_theory
Accurate predictions
Correlations suffice
No samples
No models
The Big Data Promise
90% of the data stored today did not exist two
years ago
Generally speaking there
are two types of data
Growing up to unlock the Big Data potential
Framing Data gathering &
Analyses Modelling & Calibration
Scenarios & Sensitivity
analysis
Communication &
Implementation
Analytics is not just a tool, it requires skill ,
competency & experience
What I learned in class, there is always an error
http://suicideandsappiness.files.wordpress.com/2010/10/cartoon-6.png
How many Type I Errors does Target make?
Are Correlations all that matter?
Many more examples
Caution Correlation ≠ Causality
Indeed, correlations
are not enough
http://www.nature.com/news/when-google-got-flu-wrong-1.12413 http://www.sciencemag.org/content/343/6176/1203/F2.large.jpg
Do all observations tell the whole story?
Big Data implies N=All, but often is
a seductive illusion
http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2014/03/22/starts-stops/z04CiSdSdwbACUYqnvTPSL/story.html/
“ĉiuj modeloj estas erara sed iuj estas utilaj”
George Box
From
Data-rich
to
Decision-smart
The future is bright, it’s full of data
John.poppelaars@ortec.com @ORatWork http://nl.linkedin.com/in/johnpoppelaars www.john-poppelaars.blogspot.nl
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