I2b. 2 [lecture] future. anticipate changes

jm.monguet@upc.edu | http://huntingmammoths.com

i2b/2. Practice. Future

Anticipate changesJosep Mª Monguet

The Lion King, 1994

Trying to understand the futureLevels, difficulties and values of forecasting Key sources of gradual changes.

Mapping the futureIceberg model.Green blue & orange models.From ego to eco.

Influencing the futureThe future is in the past and in the present

Summary

Understanding the future

What is changing?

Mapping the future

Modelling change

Influencing the future

Action for change

Anticipate the changes

Trying to understand the future

What is changing?

Mapping the future

Modelling change

Action for change

Trying to understand the future Many levels of future

TacticalShort term domestic &

business interest

Medium & long term perspective.Society evolution

Strategic

Trying to understand the future Forecasting limitations

Assumptions Specialisation Short term

Trying to understand the future Forecasting limitations

Trying to understand the future Looking at a certain distance ...for value

Scenarios

Changing people’s minds

Social change

Thinking about future

Scenarios

Decision making

Guide action

Strategy

Thinking about future

Trying to understand the future Key sources of gradual changes. Technology

Trying to understand the future Key sources of gradual changes. People

Trying to understand the future Key sources of gradual changes. Politics & economy

Trying to understand the future Case / From sources of change to decisions

Overcoming Specialisation

... Etc. Short termAssumptions

Guide action / Strategy

Decision making

Social change

Guide action / Strategy

Decision making

Social change

Overcoming Specialisation

... Etc. Short termAssumptions

Mapping the future

What is changing?

Mapping the future

Modelling change

Action for change

Mapping the future Iceberg model

Events and crises

Patterns

Underlying structures

Mental models / Assumptions

System

Mapping the future Iceberg model

Events and crises

Patterns

Underlying structures

Mental models / Assumptions

System

Mapping the futurePrioritising trends

Mapping the futureConsidering complementary scenarios

Orange model

Blue model

Greenmodel

Collective Individual

Integrated

Fragmented

Adapted from

Orange model

Blue model

Greenmodel

Integrated

Fragmented

Big companiesConsumer preferencesCorporate career Profit & market leadership.

Adapted from

Orange model

Blue model

Greenmodel

Integrated

Fragmented

Networked economy.High-tech business model. Flexibility & no fixed costs.

Adapted from

Orange model

Blue model

Greenmodel

Integrated

Fragmented

Social & green responsibility. Ethics & environment care.Society & business aligned.

Adapted from

Mapping the futurePossible scenarios. Blue world Blue

Mapping the futurePossible scenarios. Blue world

Big company capitalism is king

Consumer preferences dominateCorporate career separates the haves from the have-nots.

How to compete? - Scale is a crucial differentiator. - Mega-corporations global competition for talent & resources .- Constant innovation keeping in pace with customer demands.

Blue model

Mapping the futurePossible scenarios. Green world Green

Mapping the futurePossible scenarios. Green world

Companies are open, trusting & collaborative learning organisations

Consumers demand ethics and environmental credentials as a top priority.

How to compete? - A social and environmental conscience is demanded through the organisation and its supply chain. - Ethical values & work – life balance.

Blue modelOrange modelGreenmodel

Rational

Emotional

Mapping the futurePossible scenarios. Orange world

http://global-influences.com

Orange model

Mapping the futurePossible scenarios. Orange world

Global businesses fragment where small is beatiful

Technology empowers a low impact high-tech business model.

How to compete? - Diverse mix of people on an affordable, ad hoc basis.- Flexibility, autonomy and varied challenges in return for working on a short-term contractual basis.

Blue modelOrange model

https://www.presencing.com

Mapping the futureGreen /Orange/Blue Scenario Blue

modelOrange model

Greenmodel

What is changing?

Mapping the future

Modelling change

Action for change

Influencing the futureIndependence of the future

In 2011 UN designated Danila, born in Manila, as the 7 billionth

resident of planet Earth

Club of Rome 1970’s

Influencing the future The future is in the past and in the present

Scenario development Generation of scenarios and

compelling ways to present them.

Framing Knowledge boundaries,

timeframe, People involved, etc.

SearchScanning to identify

signs of changeAnalysis Evaluation of evidence

Categorizing signs of change

Influencing the future The future is in the past and in the present

Scenario development

Framing

Search

Analysis

Prioritizing opportunities

Leadership Visionaries campaignPlanning Strategic issues

Change ManagementSelection of effective domain.

I2b. 2 [lecture] future. anticipate changes

Design

Anticipate More

Mbf and i2b Notes

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