Inter-annual variations of water and air temperatures in Lebanese coastal waters (2000-2012)

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Inter-annualvariationsofwaterandairtemperaturesinLebanesecoastalwaters(2000-2012)

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International Conference on

Oceanography & Sustainable Marine Production: A Challenge of Managing Marine Resources

in a Changing Climate - ICOSMaP – 2013

Kuantan- Malaysia, 29-31 October 2013

Inter-annual variations of water and air temperatures in Lebanese coastal waters (2000-2012)

Marie Abboud Abi Saab*, Milad Fakhri, Abed El Rahman Hassoun

National Council for Scientific Research/National Center for Marine Sciences, P.O. Box 534, Batroun, Lebanon

*Corresponding author: mabisaab@cnrs.edu.lb

Abstract

The global climate of the Lebanese coast is humid thermo–Mediterranean with a sub-tropical tendency to the South. The coastal waters are subject to the effect of the region’s weather and climatic factors. Lebanon presents two main seasons: a hot dry summer and a cold rainy winter. The present work focuses on the inter-annual variations of monthly sea surface water temperature in relation to air temperature over 13 years, between 2000 and 2012, in a fixed marine site located on the North-Central part of Lebanon (N 34°14.856 and E 35°36.067), taking in consideration that sea surface temperature is a function of atmospheric temperature. Results indicate that during the period of investigation the average monthly air temperature (AT) follows its normal annual Mediterranean cycle and presented a minimum on January 2008 (10°C) and a maximum on September 2006 (30.6°C).The mean monthly variation of the sea surface temperature (SST) for the whole period vary between a minimum in March (Mean ± SD =17.82°C ± 0.67) and a maximum in August (Mean ± SD =29.71 ± 0.65°C). The mean monthly variation of air temperature vary between a minimum in January (Mean ± SD = 12.4 ± 1.2°C) and a maximum in August (27.59 ±0.58°C). The general annual mean (± SD ) of SST for the whole period is 23.22 °C (± 4.34°C) and the general annual mean of AT ( ± SD) is 20.02 (± 5.44°C). Year-to-year variations show that the coldest year of SST was 2006 (Mean ±SD = 22°C ± 4.09) and the warmest year was 2010 (Mean ± SD = 24.16 ± 4.12), whilst the coldest year in term of Air temperature was year 2000 (Mean ± SD = 19.42 ± 5.75°C) and the warmest year was 2010 (Mean ± SD = 21.51 ± 5.39°C). Statistical analysis did not show significant differences between years for both parameters. The results of both parameters reveal a linear trend of a very slight general increase.

Keywords: Air temperature; Water temperature; Time-series analysis; Lebanese coast; Eastern Mediterranean.

Introduction

Whether caused by increasing greenhouse gases, coastal pollution, overfishing, coastal development or increasing population pressure, the world’s ocean, coasts and marine ecosystems are undergoing great changes. The importance of the oceans in the global climate change cannot be underestimated (IOC, 2010). The ocean surface currently absorbs between 65 to 80% of the CO2 released into the air from natural and

Abboud-Abi Saab et al. INOC, 2013 Page 1

human activities (Archer et al., 2009). It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century (IPCC, 2013).

Energy arriving from the Sun is redistributed over the Earth mainly by the motions of the atmosphere and ocean. The interaction between air and sea, in terms of sea-surface heat flux plays a fundamental role in determining the weather and climate during this redistribution process (Murakami & Kawamura, 2001). More studies have revealed that decadal–interdecadal climate variations exist associated with fluctuations. This abrupt change in the mean state of the atmosphere, often termed a climatic ‘regime shift’, is not unique to the late 1970s. Hare and Francis (1995), Minobe (1997) and Zhang et al. (1997), showed that parallel regime shifts also occurred in the 1920s and 1940s. The most conspicuous and well-documented consequence of global climate change is a 0.18ºC per century increase in ocean temperature. This slow rise has been recorded in recent decades and is predicted to continue and accelerates in the future (Hansen et al., 2006). Climate change entails shifts in multiple environmental factors; some of them can be expected to co-vary (Caron & Hutchins, 2013).

In the Western Mediterranean area, air temperature exhibited a positive trend during approximately 40 years between 1950 and 1988, whilst the Eastern Mediterranean area showed a negative trend. The mean temperature of the surface 500 hPa layer exhibited a positive trend in both the Western and Eastern Mediterranean (Sahsamanoglou & Makrogiannis, 1992). This almost continuous increase of mean temperature is partly due to horizontal thermal advection and mainly to diabetic warming.

The sea surface temperature time series in the Eastern Mediterranean show evidence of 48- and 54- month harmonics, while the time series in the Western Mediterranean show evidence of 28- and 30- month harmonics (Sahsamanoglou & Makrogiannis, 1992). Maiyza et al. (1995; 2010) studied the long term variation of water temperature in the Eastern and the Western Mediterranean Sea. Time distribution of SST anomalies values displays both positive and negative cycles. The periods of these cycles fluctuated between 8 and 15 years. Moreover, these cycles are nearly associated with the 11 years cycle of sun-spots activities (Maiyza et al., 2010). The linear regression and model results reveal a trend of general decrease in SST with time, a decrease of about −0.3ºC in 61 years. The parabolas show a decrease in SST in the period from 1948 to 1985 followed by an increase. Maiyza and Kamel (2009) may strengthen the suggestion of an oscillating sea surface temperature (SST) with time rather than a continuous increase due to the so called global warming. It seems that the results depend largely on the length of the analyzed data series. What about the SST and AT trends in the Levantine Sea located in Eastern Mediterranean basin, particularly in the Lebanese coastal waters?

Lebanon is located on the eastern coast of the Mediterranean Sea (Beirut: Latitude 33º 49N and Longitude 35º 29E). It has a typical Mediterranean Climate characterized by mild rainy winters and hot dry summers. Mediterranean climate benefits from the dampening effect of the sea. In winter, the sea temperature is higher than the air temperature; the sea thus warms up the air masses which are then blown over the coastal regions. In summer the sea temperature is lower than the air temperature, and the cool breeze from the sea contributes to the reduction of the coastal temperatures (Atlas Climatique du Liban, 1977).

Understanding the topographic characteristics of Lebanon is a prerequisite to any climatic analysis. In general, Lebanon’s topography can be divided into three features: a coastal strip, mountain ranges, and an inland plateau. The western mountains range plays a key role in determining the climatic pattern of the inland plateau. While the climatic pattern of the western side of the western mountains range exhibits maritime characteristics, the climatic pattern of the eastern side of this range exhibits continental characteristics. Continental climates are typically marked by large annual or daily temperature amplitudes, low relative humidity, and moderate to low rainfall. The Atlas Climatique du Liban (1977) indicates that the Mediterranean climate of Lebanon can be further characterized as an oceanic climate during winter and a sub-tropical climate during summer.

The purpose of the present paper is to examine regime-scale changes in the inter-annual variability of atmosphere and sea temperatures over a limited area in the Eastern Mediterranean for a period of 13 years (2000-2012). All the previous studies in the area have exposed separately either sea surface temperature or air temperature. This paper is therefore a pioneer study of the relationships between both parameters in the Lebanese coastal waters (Eastern Mediterranean Basin).

Figure.1. Sampling site in the Northern Lebanese coastal waters.

Data and Analysis Methods

The area under study is the Eastern Mediterranean Sea in front of the Lebanese coast (Levantine Basin) (N 34°14.856 and E 35°36.067) (Fig. 1). The monthly mean sea surface temperature data (SST) were measured in the middle of every month from January 2000 to December 2012. The mean monthly air temperature (AT) data were obtained from the International Airport of Beirut. Linear trend of both parameters and auto-correlation between them were calculated.

Results

Month- to month -variations of sea surface temperature and air temperature

Monthly values of SST during the study period (156 months from 2000 to 2012) varied between 16.9 °C (March 2004) and 31°C (August 2012) (Fig. 2), while air temperature varied between 10°C (January 2008) and 28.9°C (July & August 2010) (Fig.3). The SST shows an annual cycle with annual minimum noted usually in March but also in February for the years 2001, 2003, 2006, 2007, 2008 & 2012 and in January for 2010 while the maximum is always noted in August.

Figure.2. Month –to- month variations of the sea surface temperature (SST) (°C) in the Lebanese coastal waters (2000 – 2012).

Air temperature shows also an annual cycle with the annual minimum always in January, except for

2009, and the maximum in August.

The linear model for the monthly SST trend has the following equation form: y= 0.0079x + 22.592, while the linear model for the monthly AT trend has the form : y= 0.0144x + 18.755. Results of both parameters reveal a trend of a very slight general increase.

Figure.3. Month –to- month variations of the air temperature (AT) (°C) in Northern Lebanon (2000 – 2012).

y = 0.007x + 22.59R² = 0.006

ril.-1

SST (°C) SST (°C) Linear (SST (°C))

y = 0.009x + 19.25R² = 0.006

AT (°C) AT (°C) Linear (AT (°C))

Mean Monthly variations of SST and AT

The mean monthly variation of sea surface temperature for the whole period vary between a minimum in March (Mean ± SD =17.82°C ± 0.67) and a maximum in August (Mean ± SD =29.71 ± 0.65°C) (Table 3). The mean monthly variation of air temperature vary between a minimum in January (Mean ± SD = 12.4 ± 1.2°C) and a maximum in August (27.59 ±0.58°C) (Table 4).

Table.1. Descriptive statistics of mean monthly variations of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in Lebanese coastal

waters between 2000 and 2012.

Month ↓

SST Mean

Std Dev SD

Std. Error SE

January 18.80 0.65 0.18 2.10 20.00 17.90 February 17.89 0.77 0.21 2.57 19.67 17.10 March 17.82 0.67 0.19 2.50 19.40 16.90 April 19.14 0.61 0.17 1.94 20.30 18.36 May 21.84 0.84 0.23 2.84 23.34 20.50 June 25.88 0.84 0.23 3.00 27.60 24.60 July 28.61 0.50 0.14 1.75 29.30 27.55 August 29.71 0.65 0.19 2.20 31.00 28.80 September 28.76 0.42 0.12 1.27 29.50 28.23 October 26.63 0.34 0.10 1.10 27.10 26.00 November 23.80 1.17 0.33 3.53 25.03 21.50 December 21.03 1.01 0.28 4.00 23.00 19.00

Table.2. Descriptive statistics of monthly variations of Air Temperature (AT) in Northern Lebanon between 2000 and

Month ↓

AT Mean

Std Dev SD

Std. Error SE

January 12.40 1.20 0.33 4.70 14.70 10.00 February 13.04 0.84 0.23 3.00 14.60 11.60 March 15.23 1.45 0.40 4.40 17.50 13.10 April 18.10 0.61 0.17 2.00 19.20 17.20 May 21.10 0.72 0.20 2.60 22.60 20.00 June 24.45 0.51 0.14 1.44 25.34 23.90 July 27.02 0.77 0.21 2.70 28.90 26.20 August 27.59 0.58 0.16 1.90 28.90 27.00 September 26.03 0.54 0.15 2.20 27.40 25.20 October 23.01 0.91 0.25 2.90 24.60 21.70 November 18.09 1.24 0.34 4.70 20.60 15.90 December 14.16 1.06 0.30 3.40 15.90 12.50

Year- to- year variations

The general mean annual (± SD ) SST for the whole period is 23.22 °C (± 4.34°C) and the general mean annual AT (± SD) is 20.02 (± 5.44°C).

The descriptive statistics of year –to- year variations of SST and AT are presented in table 1 & 2 respectively. The coldest year for SST was 2006 (Mean ±SD = 22°C ± 4.09) and the warmest year was 2010

(Mean ± SD = 24.16 ± 4.12) while the coldest year for air temperature was the year 2000 (Mean ± SD = 19.42 ± 5.75°C) and the warmest year was 2010 (Mean ± SD = 21.51 ± 5.39°C).

The differences in the mean values among the treatment groups are not great enough to exclude the possibility that the differences are due to random sampling variability. There are no statistically significant differences (P > 0.5).

Table.3. Mean yearly variations of SST (°C) in Lebanese coastal waters between 2000 & 2012.

Year SST Mean Std Dev Std. Error Range Max Min 2000 23.38 4.78 1.38 12.08 29.09 17.01 2001 23.48 4.41 1.27 11.62 30.00 18.38 2002 23.31 4.65 1.34 12.35 29.75 17.40 2003 23.05 4.57 1.32 12.35 29.64 17.29 2004 23.16 4.54 1.31 11.94 28.84 16.90 2005 22.95 4.61 1.33 12.14 29.59 17.45 2006 22.00 4.09 1.29 11.15 28.54 17.39 2007 23.18 4.46 1.29 11.76 29.20 17.44 2008 23.26 4.37 1.26 11.50 29.00 17.50 2009 23.19 4.43 1.28 12.30 30.00 17.70 2010 24.16 4.12 1.19 11.50 30.50 19.00 2011 23.26 4.46 1.29 11.60 30.00 18.40 2012 23.68 4.86 1.40 13.30 31.00 17.70

Table.4. Mean yearly variations of Air temperature in Northern Lebanon between 2000 & 2012.

Year AT Mean Std Dev Std. Error Range Max Min 2000 19.42 5.75 1.66 15.40 27.00 11.60 2001 20.21 5.23 1.51 14.40 27.60 13.20 2002 19.75 5.78 1.67 16.70 27.60 10.90 2003 19.82 5.54 1.60 15.00 27.40 12.40 2004 19.78 5.62 1.62 14.60 27.00 12.40 2005 19.75 5.44 1.57 14.90 27.40 12.50 2006 19.77 5.63 1.63 15.10 27.50 12.40 2007 19.89 5.58 1.61 15.40 27.10 11.70 2008 19.99 6.00 1.73 17.90 27.90 10.00 2009 19.84 5.66 1.63 15.60 27.20 11.60 2010 21.51 5.39 1.56 14.30 28.90 14.60 2011 20.01 5.49 1.58 13.90 27.50 13.60 2012 20.49 6.18 1.78 16.29 28.59 12.30

Discussion

Time series analysis of SST and AT shows that they exhibit an almost synchronous fluctuation. This is confirmed by the fact that the only statistically significant coefficient of cross correlation is that with lag equal to zero (Fig.5).

Figure.4. Mean monthly variations for 2000-2012 period of Sea Surface temperature (SST) and Air temperature (AT)

in Lebanese marine waters (eastern Mediterranean).

The general mean annual air temperature is lower than the mean annual sea surface temperature

(range = 3.12°C) and for all months. The difference between them is minimal in May and starts to increase to reach a maximum in December and January (Fig.4 ).The SD of mean variations are lower and more stable for SST than for AT at monthly (Tables 1 & 2) and yearly scale (Tables 3 & 4). These results are due to the fact that water temperature is less affected by meteorological conditions than air temperature.

Compared to 82 years average AT (1876-1973) (20.7°C) taken at the American University of Beirut, only years 2002 & 2010 present a higher value while all other years presented lower value than the normal (82 years). Compared to the average of 51 years (1922-1973) (21.33°C; minimum 20°C, 1955; maximum 22.2°C, 1947) from the same source, all our annual mean are higher. We should note that usually the temperature in the North (studied area) is colder than in the South.

Unfortunately, our record of SST dates from 1970, the annual mean was 23.59°C (1970-1975) in the area of Beirut and 23.52°C near Byblos (archive of the center). Compared to the value taken during 1987-1988 in the area of Jounieh [Mean annual SST = 22.56°C; in northern area 1991-1992, the average was lower 22.21 ± 4.22°C (Abboud-Abi Saab, 1993), whilst, values taken to the south were higher in term of the mean, minimum and maximum (Abboud-Abi Saab, 1989)]. In general, SST in Lebanon exhibits a south to north decreasing gradient. Also in spatial scale, differences for SST between coastal and offshore stations in the study area were not significant (p>0.5) (annual mean =23.18°C vs 23.23°C), (p<0.5) (Abboud-Abi Saab et al., 2010).

January Feb March April May June July August Sept October Nov Dec

SST Mean AT Mean°C

Figure.5. Cross correlation between sea surface temperature (SST) and air temperature (AT).

The positive trends of mean air temperature and mean sea surface temperature are in accordance with Sahsamanoglou and Makrogiannis (1992) which is partly due to horizontal thermal advection and mainly to diabetic warming on a global scale. It is well-known that during recent years mean air temperatures have increased both at the surface (Kelly et al., 1982; Jones and Kelly, 1983; Schönwiese, 1983; Vinnikov et al., 1987; Jones et al., 1986 and others), and in the lower troposphere (Angell et al., 1983; Jones et al., 1988). It is also known that neither the magnitude nor the rate of this increase is constant throughout different locations around the world (Sahsamanoglou & Makrogiannis, 1992). Marullo et al. (2007) and Salat & Pascual (2007) studied the sea surface temperature trend in the Mediterranean Sea, from daily to decadal variations. They suggested both increasing and oscillating mean sea surface temperature (SST) with time. For the sea, not only studies about hydrological trends but also studies about dense water formation and circulation must take into account the inter-annual variability (Millot, 2007). Maiyza (1984) and Maiyza et al. (1995) studied the long term variation of water temperature in the Eastern and Western Mediterranean Sea. They found that the time distribution of SST anomalies values displays both positive and negative cycles. The periods of these cycles fluctuated between 8 and 15 years. These cycles are nearly associated with the 11 years cycle of sun-spots activities (Maiyza et al., 2010). Differences in thermal anomalies between Eastern and Western Mediterranean were clear in 1999 (Abboud-Abi Saab et al., 2004).

In the South-Eastern Mediterranean Sea, in front of the Egyptian Mediterranean coast, Maiyza et al. (2010) found a trend of general decrease of SST with time in order of about −0.3°C/61years (January 1948 to December 2008). The quadratic regression trend of the mean monthly and annual SST has a parabola form. The parabolas showed a decrease in SST in the period from 1948 to 1985 followed by a period of increasing SST. These findings may strengthen the suggestion of oscillating sea surface temperature (SST) with time rather than continuous increasing due to the so called global warming. Moreover, these findings suggest that the cycle of this oscillation must have a period exceeding 61 years and that may reach up to centuries. Unfortunately, the data series studied herein are much shorter. However, this idea find a support: in fact, despite the original forecasts, nowadays, major climate research centers accept that there has been a “pause” in global warming since 1997 and long-term cycles in ocean temperatures suggest that the world may be approaching a period similar to the period 1965-1975, when there was a clear cooling trend (Dixon, 2013).

Conclusion

The air temperature and the sea surface temperature in Northern Lebanon show a positive trend during the period 2000-2012. It is certain that a data series for a longer period helps to confirm any existing trend.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

This study is based upon measurements realized in the framework of many projects in the National Center for Marine Sciences/Lebanon and the last one is CANA project. The authors are pleased to thank Mr. Mohammad Merheb, PhD student in the CNRS/Lebanon, for his contribution in the map drawing and in the text English correction and Madam Amal Soufi, from Tripoli Environmental and Development Observatory (TEDO), for the air temperature (AT) data.

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Inter-annual variations of water and air temperatures in Lebanese coastal waters (2000-2012)

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