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© 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco PublicEntNet 2007Noevember 29, 2007 1
The Next Net Things
Fred Baker
Cisco Fellow
© 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 2
Quick thoughts on the title
The program committee suggested the title:
Net-centricity is about warfare - using Internet technology to replace traditional radio and ATM-based battlefield communication systems.
Net Neutrality is about public policy and the politics between the OOT providers and the traditional telcos.
NGN is about the ITU's bid to take over the Internet and turn it into a bunch of walled gardens that can't talk with each other.
IPv6 is a network layer protocol.
Social networks are a web phenomenon, which is to say somewhere in the application layer.
Many of those will be mentioned. I’m not talking about any of them in particular, and I will mention others
© 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 3
History of Datagram Communications
1960’s - “Earth to telcos, voice isn’t everything”
1970’s - development of LAN & WAN datagram technologies
1980’s - displacement of telcos in intra-office communications
1990’s - displacement of telcos in inter-office communications
2000’s - NGN: telcos buy the competition and become communication carriers
“by the way, I make my money on voice”
© 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 4
History of the Internet: “oops, …” 1960’s - first thoughts…
Host to host communications
1970’s - funded research:
The @ sign, discovery that the network is important
1980’s - commercialization
Proprietary technologies in the LAN
Government funding gives way to regional consortia
1990’s - consolidation
Addressing issues give rise to CIDR, NAT, IPv6
RIRs+ISPs work out rules for address and capacity management
Applications: the web, RealAudio, MBONE videoconferencing
2000’s - paradigm changes
Business: the dot-bombs
The networks squeeze money out of capacity
Applications: peer-to-peer, social networking, streaming video
© 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco PublicEntNet 2007Noevember 29, 2007 5
What are the studies telling us is next?
© 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco PublicEntNet 2007Noevember 29, 2007 6
“ Vodafone now splits out its non-voice revenue into Messaging and Data (true data), probably because the figure for the latter KPI is starting to look a whole lot healthier.
Messaging and data revenue combined now accounts for almost 20% of the Group’s revenues.
Voice revenue increased just 7% year-on-year and messaging revenue grew 9%, data revenue jumped a whopping 49%.
Attractive data pricing, improved usability and mobile demand for Web 2.0 services which is brewing to form the perfect data storm.
Operators must now identify ways to tap into revenues from web services or else be left exposed …”
ArcChart
http://www.arcchart.com/blueprint/show.asp?id=428
“Vodafone results forecast the perfect data storm”
21 Nov 2007
© 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 7
“Our findings indicate that although core fiber and switching/routing resources will scale nicely to support virtually any conceivable user demand, Internet access infrastructure, specifically in North America, will likely cease to be adequate for supporting demand within the next three to five years.
It’s important to stress that failing to make that investment will not cause the Internet to collapse. Instead, the primary impact of the lack of investment will be to throttle innovation: both the technical innovation that leads to increasingly newer and better applications, and the business innovation that relies on those technical innovations and applications to generate value. The next Google, YouTube, or Amazon might not arise, not because of a lack of demand, but due to an inability to fulfill that demand. Rather like osteoporosis, the underinvestment in infrastructure will painlessly and invisibly leach competitiveness out of the economy.”
Nemertes Research
“The Internet Singularity: Delayed - Why Limits in Internet Capacity Will Stifle Innovation on the Web”
http://www.nemertes.com/ii
November 2007
© 2006 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 7
© 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco PublicEntNet 2007Noevember 29, 2007 8
“…the main reason potential customers say they do not subscribe to the Internet is because of the low value to their daily lives they perceive rather than concerns over cost.”
“Entertainment applications will be the key. If anything will pull in the holdouts, it's going to be applications that make the Internet more akin to pay TV,”
John Barrett, Parks Associates
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070323/wr_nm/internet_holdouts_dc_1
© 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco PublicEntNet 2007Noevember 29, 2007 9
IPv6:Addressing the Future
Steve Deeringdeering@cisco.com
Global IPv6 Summit, DubaiFebruary 26, 2001
© 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 10
continued degradation of the Internet model with IPv4?
more complex and volatile network service
=> lower performance, less robust, less secure, less manageable
more centralized control over new applications and services
=> significant barrier to innovation and growth
The Unknown Future
NAT-ALG
IPv4NAT-ALG
NAT-ALG
© 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 12
…or restoration of the Internet model with IPv6?
simple, stable network service
=> higher performance, more robust, more secure, more manageable
enabling anyone to provide new applications and services
=> allowing rapid innovation and growth
IPv6
IPv6IPv6
IPv6
The Unknown Future
© 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 13
Oh, that peer-to-peer thing…
In essence, the open source community of the early 2000’s decided to innovate around the walled-garden ISPs
Some ISPs, enterprises, and universities tried to shut them down
Ostensibly about copyright concerns
More commonly about
Protection of ISP services from OTT services like Skype
Protection of bandwidths and budgets
Some ISPs decided to innovate with them…
© 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 14
What's the problem?
VDSL (or “Fat band”) is introduced
Upstream may go from 0.4Mb to 26Mb
60 - 80% of the traffic is file sharing applications, or maybe more…
KaZaA appears to be overtaken by Direct Connect. Possibly a short term change to the better, but long term change to the worse…(user interest groups)
Connectivity services with very high local bandwidth (TBCN)
Selective bandwidth per application to other specific networks
Requirements for higher utilization of the network
Real time traffic may not be compromised (like gaming and IP-telephony)
And some other business- and political issues “not put on paper”…
Cus
tom
er-p
rovi
ded
info
rmat
ion:
12/
2003
© 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 15
Packet cubeT
ime (h
ou
r)
5h
4h
3h
2h
1h
0
0 300 600 900 1200 1500 Average packet size (Byte)
Variation of packet size (Byte)
300
900
1200
600
IP-phone (classic)Skype (IP-phone)HTTPFile sharing
Maybe packet rate (not bandwidth) should be a fourth dimension?
Cus
tom
er-p
rovi
ded
info
rmat
ion:
12/
2003
© 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 16
What applications are hot?
HTTP
In the late 1990’s, the largest application on the Internet was the web - http to anything one could imagine
Peer-to-peer
In the early 2000’s, peer-to-peer file sharing drove Internet bandwidth, in some cases 85% of utilization
Web 2.0
In 2007, the largest volume sites on the Internet have successively been FaceBook, MySpace, and YouTube
Peer-to-peer file sharing is still very large, but HTTP is once again king…
Far from being entertainment-by-entertainment-company, today’s Internet is largely about people entertaining themselves and each other with content they develop
© 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 17
Recommending IPv6 operational deployment due to pending exhaustion of the IPv4 address space
All five RIRs…
© 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco PublicEntNet 2007Noevember 29, 2007 18
“The sky’s not falling, but parts of it are getting pretty expensive to hold up.”
KC Claffy
CAIDA
© 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 20
What has always been next?
© 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 21
What will trigger that change?
© 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 22
Inflection point
Many analyses point to an inflection point
IPv4 address exhaustion leading to IPv6 deployment
US broadband (access) infrastructure brownout
Mobile Internet starting to move beyond voice+SMS
Global Internet content continuing to shift (happens frequently)
Implications:
This does not mean “doom and gloom”
It does, however, imply need for thoughtful investment
Timeframe:
Converging factors (“perfect storm”) suggest this is in the coming 3-5 year timeframe
© 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 23
Areas of change and innovation
New user communities
New networks reaching less obvious folks
Regulatory discussions
The role of government
The degree of control carriers are allowed
Requirements for forensic access, content control, etc
Oh yes…
Extending existing applications, and
New applications and paradigms that we haven’t thought of yet
© 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 24
Where is the broadband Internet today?The Europe/America/East Asia/ANZ fiber corridor
Map
cop
yrig
ht 2
008
Tel
eGeo
grap
hy
© 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 25
Power, and by extension money, throughout the world
NASA “Earth At Night”, August 2006
© 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 26
IP Addresses throughout the world today
© 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 27
Developing countries coming on line NATO Silk Road Network:
Connects national educational networks in central asia
Preparatory to fiber networks
Photo: Silk Road Project© 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
© 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 28
Rural and community networks
Wireless Access in Sandoval County New Mexico
Often mixed requirements
Example: Sandoval County NM
Seven aboriginal nations
Large desert/mountain region
Small town of 100,000
Broadband service by traditional telecoms “didn’t make business sense”
© 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
International Workshop on e-Access for All8-9 February 2007
© 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 29
“The issue of connection and/or interconection costs is…a very important issue for most of people from developing countries…
It is related to the lack of infrastructure, the lack of investment, the “cartel” behavior of many companies in some regions/sub-regions, obsolete regulations,and lack of appropriate public policies.”
Raul Echeberria
LACNIC
29© 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco Public
© 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 30
IPv6 deployment
Significant IPv6 traffic in transition technologies
RIPE-55 measurements: Jordi Palet Martinez
Presumably from Vista, MacOSX, and Linux deployments
Networks running IPv6-only:
NTT Communications video network
CERNET2 Research Network
Others…
Expect to see IPv6 turn-up in the near term
Needed by ISPs to deploy new services requiring address space
Needed to communicate with business partners in IPv6-only networks
© 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 31
Issues in IPv6 deployment IETF and RIRs have been recommending dual stack
deployment
While one can make a 1:1 correspondence between IPv4 and IPv6 addresses, bring up IPv6 in your IPv4 network
When that correspondence can no longer be made, everyone will “speak” IPv6, and the net can safely “move along”
RFC 4213
Folks haven’t done this in large numbers
Implication: there will be issues as IPv6 deploys
IETF question (next week): do we need an improved NAT-PT algorithm, and can we deploy it?
RFC 4966
Open issue:
IPv6 doesn’t address route scaling issues of the address space
Ongoing work in this area needs to continue.
© 2007 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved. Cisco PublicEntNet 2007 32
Applications
Web 2.0 sites and technologies
Social Networking
Peer-to-peer
Primarily about file sharing
Also Skype voice/video
Video services
YouTube etc
Collaboration technology
Marratech, for example
Recommended