© 2014 E 3 Alliance Susan Dawson, President Laura Koenig, School Readiness Director Shawn Thomas,...

Susan Dawson, PresidentLaura Koenig, School Readiness DirectorShawn Thomas, Director of Research & Policy

Erin Russell, Central Texas Team

Show Me the Data! From Research to Practice to People

Presented by

Erin RussellCentral Texas ProgramsMichael & Susan Dell Foundation

Our Director of Communications Would Tell Us To:

Find more information:www.e3alliance.org

Share thoughts with others:Twitter: @E3Alliance

Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/E3Alliance.org

Why Are We Here?

• At the Michael & Susan Dell Foundation, we use metrics-based methodologies and analysis to identify where our resources can produce both immediate results and long-term systemic changes in education.

• We have developed a very effective partnership with E3 Alliance to do this in Central Texas.

• We want others to be a part of it—not just here but around the state and country!

Webinar Goals

1. Share our excitement about supporting education systems change

2. Demonstrate real-world applications of action research to drive systems change in education

3. Identify partners who can:

Scale Incubate Leverage Services

Webinar Format:

1) Intro to E3 Alliance Theory of Change

2) How E3 Turns Information into Systemic Change

a) Kindergarten Readiness

b) 3D Growth Model

c) College Access and Success

3) Wynn Rosser, Greater Texas Foundation

4) Wrap Up

Susan DawsonPresidentE3 Alliance

“Central Texas High” Senior Class

157Students

“Central Texas High” Freshman Class

314Students

“Central Texas High” Senior Class

157Students

120?Students

E3 Alliance uses objective data and focused community collaboration to align our education

systems so all students succeed and lead Central Texas to economic prosperity

Mission

E3 Alliance is a Catalyst For Educational Change in Central Texas

What We Don’t Do

• Run school programs• Provide direct services • Write curriculum• Make decisions that

school boards or leaders make for their districts

Instead, we are acatalyst for positive change

in education

E3 Alliance Model for Change

Using Information to Change Practice

Building Community Will for ChangeBridging disconnects;Overcoming barriers;

Aligning resources and practices

From Information to Action

Identify Data Insights

Change Practices& Build Capacity

Forge Collaborations

Build Common Agenda

Convene Stakeholders

Building Community

Creating Commitmentto Change

Sustaining a Culture of High Performance

Objective Data-Driven Decision Making

Change Systems

E3 Alliance Mission, Theory of Change, Approach to Systemic Alignment

Shawn ThomasResearch & Policy DirectorE3 Alliance

Build Common Agenda

Building Community

Change Systems

Using objective data and research to

drive systems change – how does it work?

Using Objective Data to Drive Systems Change –

What Does that Mean?• Making readily available aggregate data

more accessible & understandable

Central Texas Income Distribution by School District 10 Years Ago…

…And District Income Distribution Last Year

20Source: E3 Alliance analysis of Texas Education Agency TAPR data © E3 Alliance, 2014

• Making readily available aggregate data more accessible & understandable

• Comparing and trending data over time

What Does that Mean?

Central Texas Low Income Graduation Rates Improving Faster Than Other Regions

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 201250%

85%High School Graduation Rates for Low Income Students

Classes of 2003 Through 2012

TexasEl PasoRio Grande Val-leyDallasSan AntonioHoustonCentral Texas

Source: E3 Alliance analysis of high school graduation data at the UT Austin Education Research Center22

• Comparing and trending data over time• Explaining complex or obscure data

– White Papers: how to interpret dropouts

Pop Quiz: Cost of Drop Outs

A conservative estimate of the cost in lost income to Central Texas of one class of dropouts is:

A: Trump Tower building cost

B: The annual cost of deer crashes in Pennsylvania

C: The total investment in the Long Center for Performing ArtsD: Annual budget of the UT Athletics Department

A conservative estimate of the cost in lost income to Central Texas of one class of drop outs is:

Deer crashes in Pennsylvania cost over $400M each year.

Answer B. is correct

$450 million

We could buy FIVE Long Centers for each class year of dropouts!

or we could buy 4 UT Athletics Departments.

The Trump Tower cost a paltry $300M.

o White Papers: how to interpret dropouts• Predictive early warning analysis for better

decision making

Half of Low Income Students Who Miss 20 or More Days While in Grade 9 Graduated

on Time

Source: E3 Alliance analysis of PEIMS data at the UT Austin Education Research Center

0 to 5 6 to 10 11 to 20 20 or more0%

95%90%

High School Graduation Rates, By Days Absent While in Grade 9, Central Texas, Class of 2012

Days Absent in 9th Grade

– White Papers: how to interpret dropouts• Predictive early warning analysis for better

decision making• Longitudinal research using individual

student records• Education Research Centers (ERCs)

– White Papers: how to interpret dropouts• Predictive early warning analysis for better

decision making• Longitudinal research using individual

student records• Education Research Centers (ERCs)

• Original research (when necessary) – Most comprehensive study on student

readiness for kindergarten in the state

How we approach using data to drive systems change

Making data accessible for decision-making

Laura KoenigSchool Readiness DirectorE3 Alliance

Ok, but how does it work in real life?

Increasing School Readiness

Example 1:

Understanding School Readiness

• Defining Readiness• Measuring School Readiness• Factors Associated with Readiness

Poverty Prior Experience

• Increasing School Readiness

What is Readiness?

Higher test scores Improved social skills Better classroom behavior Less grade repetition Fewer special ed placements Greater graduation rates Increased productivity Reduced crime

• What does Readiness look like at age 5? • How do you measure it?

Building a Common Definition of Readiness

Ready, Set, K!

Students Teachers Families

Measuring Readiness

Just Over Half of Central Texas Students Are Ready to Succeed in School

Ready53%

Not Ready47%

Kindergarten Readiness, Central Texas 2010 to 2013

Source: E3 Analysis of Ready, Set, K! weighted data 39

Central Texas Saw Dramatic Increase in Child Poverty

Source: Kids Count Data Center, Central Texas: Bastrop, Blanco, Caldwell, Gillespie, Hays, Travis and Williamson Counties

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Poverty Growth Rate for Children 0-17

United States Series2 Series3

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Poverty Growth Rate for Children 0-17

United States Texas Series3

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

121%Poverty Growth Rate for Children 0-17

United States Texas Central Texas

Any Pre-K Better Than No Pre-KFor Both Low and Non-Low Income

Students

Low Income Non-low Income0%

Kindergarten Readiness, Central Texas, 2010 to 2013

Home or with Relative District Pre-K Child Care Center Pre-K

E3 Analysis of Ready,Set,K! weighted data43

3 out of 4 Low Income Children Attend District Pre-K

48% 1%

At Home/Relative District Pre-K Child Care Center Head Start44

E3 Analysis of Ready,Set,K! weighted data 2010-2013, Central Texas

Low Income Non-Low Income

What are We Doing About it?

Align Systems Build Capacity Increase Quality

Align Systems

• National League of Cities effort to align early childhood efforts Austin one of 6 cities in the nation

• School Readiness Action Plan Government, non-profit, and community agents working

toward common goals, measured by Ready, Set, K!

• E3 Alliance and Education Service Center Region 13 aligning Pre-K instruction through Ready, Set, K!

• Horizontal Alignment with Child Care programs using Ready, Set, K!

Build Capacity

• Enroll all Eligible 4 Year Olds in High Quality Pre-K About 1,800 students, or 12% of those eligible throughout

the region, are not enrolled in Pre-K Lifetime ROI of enrolling those students in high quality Pre-

K: $30M per cohort

• Leverage available state dollars to build capacity to serve eligible 3 year olds Open classrooms where facility space available Partner with private centers to serve full day Impact investing in new models to build infrastructure Longitudinal research to optimize investments and

outcomes

Increase Quality

• Using Ready, Set, K! Kindergarten Readiness Study Pre-K Programs and Child Care Centers Parent Guides and tools

• Changing School District Practices More Qualified Teachers More investment in Pre-K

From Information to Action• Aligning Pre-K

instruction to meet

school expectation • Increasing the use

and capacity of our

current systems• Changing district

practices based on data• Using objective data and clear ROI, districts and

community are collaborating to increase enrollment regionally—and saving millions by doing so!

Population data to identify leverage points for change

New standard, original research—only when necessary

Aligning community systems and capacity based on objective data

Improving Student & School Performance by Measuring Academic Growth

Example 2:

3D GROWTH

Learning= Growth3D

GROWTH

Why Study Growth?

• Current measures pose a number of problems

• Growth analyses provide: a more direct measure of learning a more equitable basis for comparing schools that serve

different student populations

• Growth analyses allow us to: Locate schools with practices that are promising

because students are learning, not just meeting the minimum standard

View performance multi-dimensionally

SGP Has Advantages & DisadvantagesAdvantages Disadvantages

Method used in at least 15 states and accepted by teacher unions

Not used in TEA TPM or “simple growth” method, but goal is to have wide district use by 2013-14

Opens up new dimension of discussion on what is an “excellent school”

Requires extensive analysis on data from all students in Texas, which E3 Alliance has!

Not affected by only helping “bubble” students

Time lag: data becomes available a year after test administration

Easily handles TAKS to STAAR changeNot used for teacher compliance: meant to improve performance at school and student subpopulation level

Very high year-to-year stability Only utilizes academic performance in core subjects

Methodology is open, nonproprietary, & relatively easy to understand

Schools get credit for students at ceiling

Strong Negative Relationship Between % Low Income and % Met TAKS Standard

R2 = .57

Percent Low Income

NOTE: Includes 2011 TAKS Reading/ELA Passing Rates for all Central Texas schools, excluding alternative and residential treatment campuses

Reduced Correlation Between 3D Growth Scores

and % Low Income

R2 = .24

Percent Low Income

NOTE: Includes 2011 SGP Growth Scores for all Central Texas schools, excluding alternative and residential treatment campuses

Example 3D Growth Bubble Chart

State Average

Low Growth AverageGrowth

High Growth

57© E3 Alliance, 2014

School A School B

Insert Tech Brief Chart here

Identifying Opportunities to Learn and Improve

Campus NameStudent Growth

% Met Reading

Growth Grade 4

Growth Grade 5

School 118 50 98% 38 58

School 116 57 98% 43 59

School 123 42 97% 35 48

School 117 54 97% 46 61

School 120 52 96% 45 55

School 125 38 95% 33 55

School 126 41 94% 38 42

School 119 45 91% 35 56

School 121 38 90% 31 47

School 124 42 82% 40 43

School 122 51 79% 55 47

Example of a District Policy Issue

District Policy Issue

Growth in Math – Middle Schools

Normal Growth

High GrowthLow Growth

• Existing district/state measures often inadequate to improve practice and policy

• Tools exist that can help drive performance improvements at a campus and district level

• Not a silver bullet, but a powerful tool in the toolbox

Adapting powerful tools to measure student outcomes

Supporting district actions to change policy and practice to improvement performance

Improving College Enrollment and Success

Example 3:

No Improvement in Proportion of High School Graduates Enrolling in Higher Ed

Institutions

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120%

100%Percent Enrolled in Higher Ed

Within One Year of Graduating HS

Central Texas TexasHigh School Graduation Year

64Source: E3 Alliance analysis of high school graduation and higher education enrollment data at the UT Austin ERC

Enrollment Rates for Low Income HS Grads Increased

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120%

39% 40% 41%44% 46% 47% 48% 46%

65% 67% 69% 68% 68% 67% 68% 67%

Percent of Central Texas HS Graduates Enrolled in Texas Higher Ed Institution Within One Year, by Income Status

Low Income Not Low IncomeHigh School Graduating Class

Source: E3 Alliance analysis of high school graduation and higher education enrollment data at the UT Austin ERC

Higher Ed Enrollment for Low Income Students Increased But Still Lags Behind

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120%

65% 67%

66% 66%

39%46%

46% 51%

Percent of HS Graduates Enrolled in Higher Ed In Texas Within One Year by Income Status

CTX - Not Low Income Texas - Not Low Income

CTX - Low Income Texas - Low Income

Majority of Low Income Graduates Enrolled In Higher Ed Attend 2-Year

Colleges

Low Income Not Low Income0%

8% 11%

Central Texas HS Grads Enrolled in Higher Ed in Texas Within 1 Year, by Institution Type and Income Status, Class of 2012

2-year 4-year Public 4-year Independent

Only 1 in 5 Students at Austin Community College Attends School Full-time

Austin Community College

Concordia University

St. Edward's University

Texas State University

Huston-Tillotson University

UT-Austin

Southwestern University

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Full-time Part-time

Percent of Total Undergraduate Enrollment

68Source: THECB: 2013 Texas Public Higher Education Almanac; IPEDS

Gap Between Low Income and Non-low Income High School Grads Increases in

College

Persisted Into Second Year Completed Within Six years0%

Percent of Central Texas HS Grads Enrolled in Texas Higher Ed that Persist Into Second Year and Complete in 6 Years, by Income Status,

Class of 2007

Low Income Non-low Income

Source: E3 Alliance analysis of data at the UT Austin Education Research Center69

What are We Doing About it?

Creating a Community of Practice Connectivity Between Systems to build

Capacity for Supporting Students

Creating a Community of Practice

• Sharing practices across college access/success providers—Austin College Access Network (ACAN)

• Improving data sharing for common students: FERPA-compliant data-sharing agreements between

IHE’s and community groups who are directly supporting ACAN students

Developing early warning system for struggling students to deepen services and supports

• Researching Pathways of Promise to identify which clusters and course patterns best prepare most challenged student to be successful in college and high demand careers

Connectivity Between Systems

• Providing professional development for HS and college counselors in access and persistence targeted at groups of need

• Leveraging research, aligning policies and practices to put many more students on Pathways of Promise

• Implementing “near to peer” mentoring by students who have successfully navigated the 2-4 year transfer process

• Central Texas low income students lag the state in graduation rates and college enrollment rates

• Enrollment rates for low income students are increasing, overall enrollment is flat and completion is flat

• E3 Alliance targeting specific interventions and supports to help this population succeed with a credential that leads to a viable career

Trends in higher education enrollment and success

Creating a community of practice to improve outcomes, especially for low income students

Connecting systems to enable change

Build Common Agenda

Building Community

Change Systems

The Bottom Line on Using Data to Change Practices &

Systems• Detailed analysis tied to real need enables

effective policy and practice decisions• Understanding leverage points helps communities

and leaders allocate resources cost effectively• Using data insights to craft a common agenda

allows different sectors to come together to deliver on systems change

Move from Information to Action

Another PerspectiveWynn RosserExecutive DirectorGreater Texas Foundation

• Using data to drive change

• Measuring School Readiness

• 3D Growth to improve

student & school performance

• College enrollment and

success

We’re investing in E3 Alliance because it’s the only real example we’ve seen of a backbone organization using action research to enable change—at scale—across sectors

Why Invest in E3 Alliance?

1. E3 Alliance has built and tested a theory of change in education that has been implemented over the last 8 years—proven results in practice

2. This is a model that can be replicated and leveraged across the state and country…and is already having statewide impact today

3. This region’s massive demographic shift is a reflection of what is to come for the rest of the country—solving problems here provides a model for other regions

Could your Organization?

• Scale• Invest in supporting and scaling this model for change

• Incubate• Leverage models and practices in this region to replicate to

other parts of the state or country

• Leverage Services• Use the experience and expertise of E3 staff to address

your challenges with action research

Opportunities Going Forward?

Susan Dawson SDawson@e3alliance.orgLaura Koenig Lkoenig@e3alliance.org Shawn Thomas Sthomas@e3alliance.orgVirginia Potter Virginia.Potter@msdf.org

www.e3alliance.org

The conclusions of this research do not necessarily reflect the opinions or official position of the Texas Education Agency, the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board, or the State of Texas.

© 2014 E 3 Alliance Susan Dawson, President Laura Koenig, School Readiness Director Shawn Thomas,...

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