© Crown copyright Met Office WMO CBS operational collection/display of seasonal (and sub-seasonal)...

© Crown copyright Met Office

WMO CBS operational collection/display of seasonal (and sub-seasonal) forecastsRichard Graham, Met Office Hadley Centre. With acknowledgements to all GPCs, LC-LRFMME, LC-SVSLRF and members of the WMO Expert Team on Extended and Long-range Forecasting (ET-ELRF)

WMO/THORPEX/WCRP sub-seasonal to seasonal implementation planning meeting, WMO HQ, Geneva,

2-3 December 2011

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Content

• CBS operational seasonal (and monthly) data exchange and products – GPCs, Lead Centres

Input on:

• Intra-seasonal applications

• Future CBS operational extended-range data exchange (in ET-ELRF terms of reference)

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WMO CBS coordination of centres producing long-range forecasts:Global Producing Centres (GPCs)

• 12 WMO-designated GPCs centres adhering to agreed procedures/standards in LRF – forming an integral part of the WMO GDPFS

• 2 Lead Centres, facilitating user access to GPC products

• Lead Centre for Long-range Forecast Multi-model Ensembles (LC-LRFMME) – jointly operated by KMA/NOAA NCEP

• Lead Centre for the Standard Verification System for Long-range Forecasts (LC-SVSLRF) – jointly operated by BoM/MSC

• Aim of this GDPFS infrastructure: improve access and usability of global LRF products to aid production of regional/national climate services

• Growing use at RCOFs and NCOFs

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GPC designation criteria

• have fixed production cycles and time of issuance;

• provide an agreed minimum set of long-range forecast products,

• 2m temp, precipitation, SST (averages of at least 1-month);

• any lead-time between 0 and 4 months.

• provide an agreed set of forecast quality measures (WMO Standard Verification System for LRF);

• provide up-to-date information on forecast methodology used;

• make products accessible to users (through website and Lead Centres)

GPC name Centre System Configuration (ensemble size of forecast)

Resolution (atmosphere)

Hindcast period used

Beijing Beijing Climate Centre Coupled (48) T63/L16 1983-2004

CPTEC Centre for Weather Forecasts and Climate Studies

2-tier (15) T62/L28 1979-2001

ECMWF European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts

Coupled (41) T159/L62 1981-2005

Exeter Met Office Hadley Centre

Coupled (42) 1.25°x1.85°/L38 1989-2002

Melbourne Australian Bureau of Meteorology

Coupled (30) T47/L17 1980-2006

Montreal Meteorological Service of Canada

2-tier (40) T32/T63/T95/2.0°x2.0° (4- model combination)

1969-2004

Seoul Korean Meteorological Agency

2-tier (20) T106/L21 1979-2007

Tokyo Japan Meteorological Agency

Coupled (51) T95/L40 1979-2008

Toulouse Météo-France Coupled (41) T63/L91 1979-2007

Washington National Centres for Environmental Prediction

Coupled (40) T62/L64 1981-2004

Moscow Hydromet Centre of Russia

2-tier (10) 1.1°x1.4°/L28 1979-2003

Pretoria South African Weather Service

2-tier (6) T42/L19 1983-2001

The 12 WMO-designated GPCs

Data collected/processed/displayed by LC-LRFMME

• 1-month means for (at least) next 3-months; all ensemble members (forecast and hindcast);

• Variables:• 2m temperature

• SST

• Total precipitation

• MSLP

• 850 hPa temperature

• 500 hPa geopotential height

• Collected every month between 15th-20th. • Forecast displays updated on LC-LRFMME

website ~ 20-25th of month.© Crown copyright Met Office

Products

• Individual GPCs

• Deterministic (ensemble mean anomalies)

• Multi-model (deterministic+):

• ensemble mean anomalies

• Nino plumes

• Model consistency (of anomaly sign)

• multi-model can be user defined

• Multi-model (probabilistic)

• Probabilities of tercile categories

• Subset of GPCs

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Lead Centre for Long Range Forecast Multi Model Ensemblehttp://www.wmolc.org

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Seasonal AND monthly products displayed on LC-LRFMME website

Dec Jan Feb

DJFGPC WashingtonEnsemble mean anomalies: pmsl(2011)

GPC products from LC-LRFMME website:DJF 2010/11: ensemble mean pmsl anomaly

Exeter ECMWF Toulouse

Beijing

Washington

TokyoMelbourne

Seoul Montreal

Coupled systems

Un-coupled systems

Pretoria

‘Dynamic’ user-selectable domain

Same available for individual months

Multi-model GPC products from LC-LRFMME website: DJF 2010/11, ensemble mean pmsl anomaly

Ensemble mean of 10 GPCs

Ensemble mean of 7 GPCs (coupled systems)

Ensemble mean of 3 GPCs (un-coupled systems)

multi-model subsets produced interactively from LC-LRFMME website

Presented at South East Europe Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SEECOF), 22-26 November 2010

2mT, precipitation, T850, Z500, SST and for individual calendar month periods

Nino3.4 plumes

GPC model consistency plots:Individual months:number of models with +ve /-ve anomalies

Z500 T850 PMSL

Precip 2mT SST

Dec 2011

GPC model consistency plots:Individual months:number of models with +ve /-ve anomalies

Z500 T850 PMSL

Precip 2mT SST

DJF 2011

Probabilistic products with subset of GPC providing hindcasts

Dec 2011

Probabilistic products with subset of GPC providing hindcasts

DJF 2011

Use at RCOFs: WMO Lead Centre information and final GHACOF consensus, SOND 2010

LC-LRFMME Model consistency

Statistical models + Forecaster judgement

Final consensus

Verification

Observed SON anomalies

25

40

35

35

25

40

Summary – global LRF

• 12 WMO designated GPCs supply seasonal and ‘subseasonal‘ data

• 2 WMO Lead centres: dealing with standardised display/multi-modelling and forecast validation

• Deterministic products and probabilistic products

• In active use by RCCs, RCOFs, NMHSs (~123 registered users, 49 countries – as of early 2011)

• Probability products will form basis of prediction component of the WMO Global Seasonal Climate Update (GSCU).

• Key plans (guided by the Expert Team for Extended and Long-range Forecasts) – in line with GFCS vision - include:

• verification of multi-model products

• Investigation/development of extended (monthly) range capability

• investigation/development of multiannual–to-decadal capability (decadal GPCs?)

CSRP: consultation in Africa

0123456789

No

. o

f vo

tes Rank 1

Rank 2

Rank 3

Rank 4

Type and number of organisations interviewed Ranking of priorities

Questionnaire fielded to 9 climate service providers

Total of 52 interviews across 8 African countries

Science component (3): Predicting onset timingbased on local time of arrival of 20% of long-term seasonal average

Average southward progression of rains with ITZC

observed

modelled

Skill of Met Office seasonal forecasts of ‘onset’ timing

early onset

late onset

orange/red =

‘good’ skill

Encouraging first results: trial onset forecasts have been provided to Regional Climate Outlook Forums ICPAC, ACMAD and SADC-DMC

Example:East Africa short-rains (OND)

Michael Vellinga

Predicting onset timing: example Greater Horn of Africa short-rains season 2011 (OND) – prediction from Augustbased on local time of arrival of 20% of long-term seasonal average

Probability of early arrival

Probability of late arrival

Observed time of arrival

Early thoughts on LC-LRFMME operational exchange

Strawman proposal for operational exchange:

• Coordinate research and operational exchanges with operational exchange a subset of research (delayed release) exchange?

• 2-weekly issues: first, with the release of LC-LRFMME seasonal forecast; second, 2 weeks later;

• Daily data to ~32 days; small number of essential variables;

• Products to be period means;

7 GPCs responded so far:

• 5 basically ‘yes’; 1 ‘too early’: 1 system not operational;

• Key issue: coordinating release date to get usefully short lead time, different GPCs have different release dates; should release date be fixed day of month or day of week?

• Some with data policy issues and other reservations (e.g. Timing of products)

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Thank you! Any questions?