Midterm Essay Question Review of midterm evaluation of teaching feedback Reading takehomes Review...

Outline for today Midterm Essay Question Review of midterm evaluation of teaching

feedback Reading takehomes Review nuclear weapons survey (extra

credit) Facts about nuclear weapons Effects of nuclear weapons Explaining the Cold War Peace A nuclear taboo? Nuclear vs. chemical / biological weapons

Country 1997Strategic

2014Strategic [undeployed]

United States 7,300 1,642[2,800]Russia 6,000 1,643 [1022]

France 482 ~290China 410 ~250United Kingdom 200 ~225Israel 100+? 80-100India 60+? 90-110Pakistan 15-25? 100-120North Korea 0 6-8Syria 0 ???Iran 0 ???

1997: http://www.cdi.org/issues/nukef&f/database/nukestab.html and2014: http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat

Strategic Nuclear Weapons: 1997 vs. 2014

Country 1997 2014

United States 4,700-11,700 ~500

Russia 6,000-13,000 ~2,000

China 120 120

Tactical Nuclear Weapons: 1997 vs. 2014

1997: http://www.cdi.org/issues/nukef&f/database/nukestab.html and2014: http://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Nuclearweaponswhohaswhat

Decreased likelihood of total war Increased devastation should war occur Increased likelihood of regional wars

Effects of nuclear weapons

Pre-Nuclear World

Go to War Avoid War

// ||

Non-nuclear (by defn) Status quo

// \\ ||

Win Lose ||

MorePower

DeadSoldiers

Power andSoldiers at SameLevel as Before

Nuclear World

Go to War Avoid War

// \\ ||

Non-nuclear (by defn) Nuclear Status quo

// \\ // \\ ||

Win Lose Win Lose ||

MorePower

DeadSoldiers

Dead Soldiers& Civilians

CompleteDestruction

Power andSoldiers at SameLevel as Before

Explaining Cold War PeaceWhat we want toexplain

Possibleexplanation#1

Possibleexplanation

#2

Possibleexplanation#3

Possible explanation#4

Possibleexplanation#5

Period State ofWorld

Nuclearweapons

Fear ofescalation

Memory of WWII

Postwar statusquocontentment

Soviet ideology

Pre1945

War No Less No Dislike statusquo

Against war

Post1945

Peace Yes More Yes Like status quo Against war

Logic of consequences: decisions as cost-benefit calculation from available means

Logic of appropriateness: decisions as "what is right in current situation, given social identity state desires"

Tannenwald: ◦ Bush 1: nuclear weapon use not considered

because not “right” thing for Americans to do◦ There WERE previous nuclear threats

A nuclear taboo?

How do they differ?◦ Ease of acquisition: availability of components

and know-how, known likelihood of success◦ Ease of use◦ Magnitude and type of impacts

Why do we consider some worse than others?

Nuclear vs. chemical and biological weapons