© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011. Pascal Peduzzi UNEP/GRID-Geneva Enhancing resilience and...

Pascal PeduzziUNEP/GRID-Geneva

Enhancing resilience and sustainable development through ecosystems-based disaster risk reduction

Kingston,9 December 2011

www.grid.unep.chRiVAMPQuantifying the role of ecosytems

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

World Population1975: 4.1 billion1990: 5.3 billion2011:7.0 billion

Over 7 billions people on earth in 2011

What is global change?

More than 50% of world population is now urban…… and about a third of urban population lives in slums

1973 – a town of 400’000 inhabitants

Images courtesy USGS

Las Vegas

2000 – 1 million inhabitants

2010 – 1.9 million inhabitants

Las Vegas

Aral sea: coton is drying out the sea

18 June 2009

20042002

8 Jan. 2010

Lake Chad

Honduras: shrimps eat mangroves

1987-1999: shrimps farms are replacing mangroves in the golf of Fonseca.

Mine de cuivre en Papua Nouvelle-Guinée

1990-2004: Impacts d’exploitations minières dans le lit de la rivière

1975 – Natural forest cover

Amazonia: lungs cancer

Rondonia, Brésil

1989 - Patterns showing conversion of forest to crops.

2001 – Crops are supplanting forest

1973: Forests

2000: Deforestation in Paraguay

Barrage d’Itaipu et rivière d’Iguazu

LessPhotosynthesis

LessCarbon sinks

Warmer temperatures

More CO2

More droughts

Less precipitationsHigher temperatures

MoreForest fires

Deforestation

Climate change, deforestation, drought and forest firesA triple-loop of positive feedbacks

Data sources: Knutson et al. 2010

Forecasted Tropical cyclones changes in frequency and intensity as of 2030

Glaciers:Precipitations’buffers and watertanks.

19792007

Sea level rise faster than expected

Future projections

Future sea level (rel. to 1990) basedon IPCC AR4 global temperature projections

Full range: 75 – 190 cm by 2100

Vermeer & Rahmstorf, PNAS 2009

constant rate 3.2 mm/year

Fig.1 Beach erosion (defined as irreversible coastline retreat) due to increased sea level

S, coastal retreat, α, sea level rise

Driver 1: Sea level rise (ASLR), process

1. How can we protect us ?

…costly engineered coastal defence measures……and not necessarily very helpful…

Poorly thought post 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami Actions

Wall for stabilizing slopes?

Role of vegetation

Can be useful and/or needed

Are usually costly

Need maintenance

Do not provide services in absence of hazard

No esthetical value

Engineered solutions

Natural and environmental friendly

Cost effective

Easy and fast installation (can be done with local population.

Low (if any) maintenance

Esthetical value

Carbon storage

Support biodiversity

Can remove excess of nitrates, phosphates and farm chemicals

Ecosystems: the “no regret option”

2. RiVAMP

Negril

Erosion rate between 1968-2006 : 0.5 and 1 m/yr(large temporal and spatial variability; Smith Warner International, 2007)

Observation 2006-2008, shows that beach erosion continues (UNEP, 2010)

of Jamaican Experts

Local Community

consultations

6m depth

Erosion

Profiles

Data extractionSatellite imagery

To classify marine ecosystems

GIS analysis

Data retrieval and remote sensing to identify erosion rate

Multiple regression analysis

The model explains 41% of the erosion (correlation r=0.64).

Sea grass, slopes and waves were selected as significant parameters in the model. Sea grass plays the main role (47%): the wider the sea grass the less the erosion.

Erosion rate behind sea grass

Multiple regression analysis

Erosion rate behind coral

The model explains 83% of the erosion (correlation r=0.91).

Coral width and slopes were selected as significant parameters in the model. Width of coral plays the main role (59%): the wider the coral the less the erosion.

Coastal ecosystem importance: beach protection by seagrass meadows

Fig. 11. Modelled bed shear stress (force per unit area) (SBEACH mode (wave height 1 m, period 6s) in the Negril coastal zone

The seagrass meadows spread the wave force on wider area and dissipate wave energy

Without meadows

With meadows

Waves H=2.8 m, T= 8.7s

Sea level rise 1m

Coastal ecosystem importance: beach protection by coral reefs

Fig. 9b. Modelled bed shear stress (force per unit area) (SBEACH model) induced by waves in the Negril coastal zone, showing the protection effects of inshore coral reefs

1015202530354045505560N

Erosion (m)

1015202530354045505560N

Erosion (m)

1015202530354045505560N

Erosion (m)

If all sea grass removedIf behind 1km of sea grass

3. RiVAMP capacity building

empowering people

RiVAMP training (Kingston, 5-8 Dec. 2011)

More than 20 people trained

OpenSource software

Data collected and centralized

Methodology in a step by step training manual

Political willingness

Commitment to environmental governance

What we provided:

What we can assist but not provide:

RiVAMPLet’s make it happened!

www.grid.unep.ch

© Pascal Peduzzi, UNEP/GRID-Geneva, 2011. Pascal Peduzzi UNEP/GRID-Geneva Enhancing resilience and...

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