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New Perspectives on Climate Change Research in Brazil Carlos Nobre Center for Earth System Science National Institute for Space Research – INPE and Executive Coordinator of the FAPESP Research Program on Global Climate Change. 08 December 2008. Contents …. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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New Perspectives on Climate Change Research
in Brazil
Carlos NobreCenter for Earth System Science
National Institute for Space Research – INPEand
Executive Coordinator of the FAPESP Research Program on Global Climate Change
08 December 2008
Contents …
• Introduction: the role of S&T for sustainable development
• New research programs on climate change in Brazil: – FAPESP Research Program on Global Climate
Change– Climate Change Research Network – Rede
CLIMA– National Institute for Climate Change Research
• Conclusion: the National Climate Change Plan
Perc
enta
ge o
f Glo
bal A
nnua
l Em
issio
ns
KyotoProtocolAdopted
57%
43%
UNFCCC
62%
38%
KyotoProtocolEntered into Force
49.7%
50.3%
Current
47%
Kyoto Protocol
Regional Shift in Emissions Share
J. Gregg and G. Marland, 2008, personal communication
Top Emitters1. China2. USA4. Russia3. India
53%
Recent emissions
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
CO
2 E
mis
sion
s (G
tC y
-1)
5
6
7
8
9
10Actual emissions: CDIACActual emissions: EIA450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100C
O2 E
mis
sion
s (G
tC y
-1)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30Actual emissions: CDIAC450ppm stabilisation650ppm stabilisationA1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B2
SRES (2000) aver. growth rates in % y -1 for 2000-2010:
A1B: 2.42 A1FI: 2.71A1T: 1.63A2: 2.13B1: 1.79B2: 1.61
Observed 2000-2007 3.5%
20062005
2007
Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios
Raupach et al 2007, PNAS; Global Carbon Project (2008)
(Avgs.)
Top Emitters1. China2. USA4. Russia3. India
Emissões Brasileiras de CO2eq (1994)
1%
55%25%
2%
17%
EnergiaProcessos IndustriaisUso de Solventes e Outros ProdutosAgropecuáriaMudança no Uso da Terra e FlorestasTratamento de Resíduos
20%
Considering GWP of CH4 = 21
Inventory of Brazilian Emissions by Sector (CO2-eq)
Land UseChange Agriculture
Energy
1% of GDP30% of GDP
Number of articles by geographical coverage - 2002 - 2007
Developed Countries
2153 (81,4%)
Developing Countries
328 (13,5%)
Latin America68 (2,7%)
Brazil38 (1,5%)
São Paulo24 (0,9%)
Selection of published articles with key words “climate change”in based on 20 journals (e.g., Science, Nature, PNAS, J. Climate, Climatic Change etc.), during the last 5 years (2003-2007).
Average Brazilian contributions is 2% (all areas)
Contributions of Brazilian research institutions to the science of climate change
Can Tropical Countries become fully developed in the 21st Century following sustainable pathways?
Pathways for Earth Sustainability in Brazil
The role of S&T The challenge of our generation is to invent a new
development paradigm for the Global Tropics, based on S&T, recognizing that rational use of their abundant renewable natural resources and biodiversity can be the key factor for development.
This new development paradigm must rest upon a robust capacity to observe and model the Earth System.
The time has come for Global Climate Change Research in Brazil …
Why is it important?
• Over 50% of Brazil’s GDP is dependent on renewable natural resources (agriculture, hydropower, etc.)
• Large vulnerable populations to extremes of climate and weather (farmers in semi-arid Northeast Brazil and poor urban population)
• Many other vulnerabilities• Unlike other rapidly developing countries, it is quite feasible
to reduce emissions
Challenges for Brazilian Research Programs on Climate Change in the Next Decade
• Detection and attribution of causes of climate change• Understanding of global biogeochemical cycles• Natural climate variability versus climate change• Global climate system models and scenarios
• Strategies to mitigate emissions of Greenhouse gases in Brazil
• Key vulnerabilities to climate change
• Increase in adaptative capacity
The science of global climate change: major challenges
• Quantification of systemic risks
• Reduction of uncertainties of projections and turning them more relevant at the regional scales and for adaptation (e.g., projections of extremes)
• Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability research
• Radically new decarbonization technologies
Brazilian Research Network on Climate Change Research – “Rede CLIMA”
Brazilian Research Network on Climate Change Research – “Rede CLIMA”
• Established at the end of 2007 by the Ministry of S&T to expand the knowledge basis on climate change, impacts, adaptation, vulnerabilty and mitigation
• Main Goal: increase Brazil’s capacity to cope with the challenges of global environmental change
• It will articulate over 50 research groups in Brazil covering a broad range of interdisciplinary research on all dimensions of global environmental change
• Budget: US$ 15 million over 3 years to start implementation
• It involves initially 10 interconnected themes
Themes of “Rede CLIMA” with Focal Points
Water ResourcesUFPE, Recife
Regional DevelopmentUnB, Brasília
Coastal ZonesFURG, Rio Grande
Biodiversity and EcossistemsMPEG, Belém
Cities and IndustryUnicamp, Campinas
AgricultureEMBRAPA, Campinas
Renewable EnergyCOPPE / UFRJ, RJ
Human HealthFiocruz, RJEconomy of Climate Change
USP, São PauloClimate ModelingINPE
New Rede CLIMA-FAPESP Supercomputer for Climate Change Research
Sustained Throughput
15 Tflop/s
Main Memory 20 TBytes
Primary Storage 400 TBytes
AquisitionInstallations
2008First half of 2009
Total budget US$ 22.5 M
...
This new system will be the 6th most powerful in the world in climate change research by mid-2009
It will make it possible to run global climate model simulations at high spatial resolutions to grid sizes of 10 km !
FNDCT - US$ 15 MFAPESP - US$ 7.5M
The “National Institute” for Climate Change Research
The “National Institute” for Climate Change Research
• Competitive Call for Proposals for National Institutes of S&T (INCT): US$ 250 M; 101 INCTs selected
• The National Institute for Climate Change:
- 26 research projects covering the science of climate change, impact-adaptation-vulnerability studies, and mitigation; technological developments in climate modeling and geosensors
- 90 research groups in Brazil and 8 countries; 400 researchers and students involved
- US$ 3.5 M (+ US$ 5 M from Rede CLIMA) for 3 years
GLOBAL CLIMATE SYSTEM MODEL
Collective effort to develop the Brazilian Climate System Model
Mid 2000s
Atmosphere
Land Surface
Ocean & Sea-Ice
Sulphate
Aerosol
Non-sulphate
Dynamic
Vegetation
Atmospheric
Chemistry
Aerosol
Carbon Cycle
Atmosphere
Land Surface
Ocean & Sea-Ice
Sulphate
Aerosol
Non-sulphate
Aerosol
Carbon Cycle
Atmosphere
Land Surface
Ocean & Sea-Ice
Sulphate
Aerosol
Atmosphere
Land Surface
Ocean & Sea-Ice
Atmosphere
Land Surface
Atmosphere
Around 2000Late 1990sEarly 1990sMid-1980sMid-1970s
FAQ 1.2, Figure 1
The Climate System
Development of a Global Climate System Model
• Two-pronged approach: (i) full use of experience of CPTEC and (ii) collaboration with advanced climate change centers abroad
– Take CPTEC Global Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model as the structuring building block
– Add components: dynamic vegetation with carbon cycle; ocean carbon cycle; enhanced sea ice and pack ice; GHG and aerosols; atmospheric chemistry, etc.
– 5 year project with engagement of many modeling groups in Brazil
– Capacity development in many areas
Brazil’s participation in IPCC AR5 global climate model simulations
• International collaboration with advanced climate change centers abroad: Hadley Centre and NCAR-ORNL, and others likely
• Design of simulations to add value to IPCC AR5 ensembles: higher ensemble sizes, higher resolution, different modules and/or physics, chemistry, vegetation, etc.
• Simulations to be carried out in Rede CLIMA-FAPESP Supercomputing Facility at INPE (likely from last quarter of 2009 through the fist quarter of 2011)
• Open data policy access for all simulations
FAPESP Research Program on Global Climate Change
FAPESP Research Program on Global Climate Change
• Carefully thought-out research plan (2 years)• Long term research Program: 10 years warranted• First Call for Proposals launched: US$ 7.5 million• Two-pronged Call for Proposals:
– US$ 6 million on scientific basis, impacts, and mitigation themes
– US$ 1.5 million to develop the Brazilian Global Climate System Model (4 years)
• Contribution to the development of a full-fledged Earth System Model
• Supercomputer facility and support for model use and development
Development of a Brazilian Global Climate System Model
• A single proposal will be selected• Consortium of research institutions lead by São Paulo
State institution (but engaging institutions from all over Brazil and from abroad)
• Build-up of existing experience and models developed in Brazil
• Applied to climate change research• No “black-box” solution accepted• Aims at developing capacity in all components of Global
Climate System Model• Strongly associated to PhD training• Four years duration; US$ 1.5 M
National Climate Change Plan
• Federal Government has launched a National Climate Change Plan
• Climate Change Fund to be established: estimates of US$ 400 million/year for adaptation, mitigation and S&T development
• Rede CLIMA, INCT for Climate Change and the FAPESP Program (and other research programs being established) will form the pillar for the R&D portion of the National Climate Change Plan
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