09 HIRA Workshop Report - acer-acre.ca · PDF file2016 HIRA Workshop Report By Madelyn Webb,...

SummaryReportsNIAGARAREGION

HIRAWORKSHOPS:201420152016

ByMadelynWebb,M.Sc.,M.B.A.ForACERandGreeningNiagara SupportedbyOntarioTrilliumFoundationPartner:NiagaraPeninsulaConservationAuthorityMay,2016Locations:

2014HeartlandForestOutdoorEducationCentre–8215HeartlandForestRd,NiagaraFalls,ON2015StokesCommunityVillage–36PageStreet,StCatharines,ON2016CentreforConservationatBall’sFalls(GlenRoom)–3292SixthAvenue,Jordan,ON

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ExecutiveSummaryforthreeyearsofworkshopsonHIRA(HazardsInventoryandRiskAssessment)

OverthethreeyearsofHIRAworkshops,externalconditionsemphasizedtheimportanceofthisworktodemonstratetherelevanceofidentifyingthehazardsassociatedwithextremeweather.Sensitisingdecision-makersandengagingthecommunityindialogue,becomeapartofactionplanstoaddressclimate-relatedhazardsandtheirassociatedrisks.

ThefirstHIRAworkshop,inearly2014,tookplacelessthan2monthsaftertheworsticestormsince1998ineasternCanada.Lackofpreparednessonthepartsoftheirmunicipalitiesandpersonalstoriesabouttheresultingconcern,displacement,discomfort,lackofcommunicationandfinanciallossesweretopofmindfortheparticipants.Morethan60personsattended,attestingtothetimelinessandimportanceofthetopic.Participantscontributedtoalonglistofsuggestedactionstobeconsideredaspartoffutureplanningforindividualsandmunicipalities.

Climatechange,reflectedthroughsignificantincreaseinaveragetemperatures,extremeweathereventsandotherindicatorsaspredictedby40climatechangemodels,isarealityinNiagara.Thepresentationsbytwoprominentscientistswithdecadesofexperienceonthematterbroughthometheurgencyforincreasingeffortsinmitigationandadaptationtocontainnotonlytheeconomicburdenonmunicipalities,individualsandtheinsuranceindustry,butalsotoalleviatethediscomfort,displacementandattimes,realsufferingofcitizensduringanextremeevent(see2014reportfordetails).

Thefollowingyear,GreeningNiagaraandACERinvitedmunicipaldecision-makersasattendees.Althoughattendancewaslower,wemadeanimpactinadvancingawarenessthatweather-relatedemergencieshavebecomethehighestpriorityformunicipalitiesintermsofimpactandcosttogovernment,insurancecompaniesandindividuals.Municipalcouncillorsandplanningofficialswhoparticipatedhadtheopportunitytodeveloptheirownlistofemergencypriorities.Thischangedthethinkingofsomeoftheattendeesandsawthemreturntotheirmunicipalitieswithadifferentperspectivetoapplytotheiremergencyplanning(see2015reportfordetails).

In2016,theemergency-preparednesslandscapehadchangedtoonewhereemergencyplanninghadbecomearealityformunicipalitiesandmanyoftheimplicationsunderstood.However,ourinvestigationsindicatedthatthecommunity’srolehasnotbeenaswelldefinedinNiagaraRegionasithasinsomeotherjurisdictions(e.g.UnitedStates,AustraliaandpartsoftheGTA).

Inlightofthisnewconsciousness,GreeningNiagaraandACERturnedtheirattentiontobringingtogethermembersofthepublic,alongwithfirstresponders,andpolicy-makers,toshowhowadialogueamongthesepartiescouldhighlightthe

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benefitsofcollaboration,pointtodeficiencies,informcitizensoftheworkofthemunicipalitiesandfacilitatetwo-waycommunication.WebelievethatthiswasthefirsttimethatsuchadialoguehasbeenfacilitatedatthecommunitylevelwithrespecttoemergencyplanninginOntario.

Atthisfinalworkshop,mapsofthemunicipalitieswereusedtoengageparticipantsinidentifyingassetsandassessingtheiradequacyintheeventofemergencies(e.g.isthehospitalcloseenoughtoserveremoteareas).Thedialogueledtoabetterunderstandingofmunicipalassets,includingcorridorsforrailandroadsandwaterwaysandtheirrelationshiptopotentialemergencies.ImportanthazardswereprioritizedusingtheHIRAprocess.Anecdotalinformationelaboratingonlocalhazards,assetsandvulnerabilitieswasdocumentedandprovidesanimportantbodyofknowledgethatwillinformfutureplanningaswellasabenchmarktoassesschangesinthefuture.Again,morethan60peopleparticipatedandfeedbackbasedonanelectronicsurveywasverypositive(see2016detailedreportthatfollows).

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2016HIRAWorkshopReportByMadelynWebb,M.Sc.,M.B.A.

ForACER May,2016

Thisreporthighlightsthe2016workshop.Theappendicesshowdetailsfromthe2016workshop.

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TableofContents

Introduction 6

Summaryofspeakers’remarks 6

Dr.MarianneKrasny,DirectorofCivicEcologylab,CornellUniversity,NewYork

Mr.DonMcIver,retiredscientistandMayorofAmaranthTownship,Ontario

Workshopmethodology 7

Results 8

Conclusions 9

Acknowledgement 10

ListofAppendices:

A.Agenda 11B. Listofattendees 12C. HIRAmethodologyandgriddiagram(HIRAandcasestudy) 14D. Mapof12municipalities 24E. HIRAHazardsandScores(includingkeyandlistofNiagaraHazards)25F. HIRAAssetsandVulnerabilities 33G. Resultsofevaluationsurvey 58ListofTables:Table1.HazardsIdentifiedforNiagaraandCodes 8

Table2.ExamplesofpriorityhazardsidentifiedatHIRAworkshop. 9

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INTRODUCTION

The2016HIRAworkshop

OnFebruary5th,2016,ACERheldthethirdandfinalworkshopintheHIRA(HazardInventoryandRiskAssessment)seriesfortheNiagaraRegion.FundingfromtheOntarioTrilliumFoundationisgratefullyacknowledged.TheworkshopwasheldattheCentreforConservationatBall’sFalls(GlenRoom)at3292SixthAvenue,Jordan,Ontario,L0R1S0.

Theagendaconsistedoftwospeakers,includedinstructionontheHIRAprocess,and,afterlunch,fivebreak-outsessionsfocusedonclimate-relatedhazardsfor12municipalitiesintheNiagaraRegion(Agenda,AppendixA).

Morethansixtypersonsattendedtheevent,whichranfrom9:00amto3:00pm(ListofAttendees,AppendixB).

SUMMARYOFSPEAKERS’REMARKS

Speaker:Dr.MarianneKrasny,CornellUniversity,Ithaca,NewYork.

Dr.KrasnyspokeaboutherresearchonCommunityEngagementinenvironmentalstewardship,apracticeshereferstoas“CivicEcology”.Shedefinedthetermas“localenvironmentalstewardshipactionstakentoenhancethegreeninfrastructureandcommunitywell-beinginurbanandotherhumandominatedsystems”.FromCanada,shecitedtheEvergreenBrickworks.TheworkhasevolvedoutofCornellUniversity’soutreachresponsibilitiestoteachabouttheenvironmentincities,whichhastakenheraroundtheworld.Herexamplesof“CivicEcology”inactionincludedacommunitygardenonNewYork’slowereastsidetoagrassrootsprojecttobeautifyformerlygarbage-strewnareasofBangladesh.

Speaker:DonMcIver,retiredscientistandMayorofAmaranthTownship,Ontario.

DonMcIverspokeabouthowtoorganizeatthelocalleveltodevelopsolutionstoenvironmentalproblems.HewentontofocusonResiliencewhichhedefinedas“theabilitytobouncebackafteradisaster”andidentifieditsthreeparts:DisasterRiskReduction,EmergencyPreparednessandEmergencyResponse.Heindicated,basedonhisexpertise,thatOntariois27%belowtheCanadianaverageinEmergencyPreparedness.

HecitedadaptationsthatOntariohasalreadyexperiencedinresponsetoclimatechange.Forexample,cropshavebeenadjusted.Butreadinessispoorforotherextremes,suchashighwinds,theeffectsofwhichcouldbemitigatedbyinstallingroofclipstopreventdamagefromwindstormswithspeedabove90kmperhour.

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HenotedthattheclimatechangemodelssuggestthatsouthernOntarioprepareforwarmerandwetterweather.

Inpreparationforthebreak-outsessions,DonexplainedtheHIRAprocessfordetermininglocalhazards(AppendixC,HIRAmethodologyandgriddiagram).

WORKSHOPMETHODOLOGY

Preparationfortheworkshop:

MeetingswereheldwiththepartnersinDecember2015,tofurtherdevelopthemethodologyandmaterialsaswellastheinvitationlistfortheworkshop.

Basedontheprevioustwoyearsofeffort,wenotedthatmanyjurisdictionshadmadeprogressontheirownemergencypreparednessplanning,forextremeweatherorotheremergencies.However,therehadnotyetbeenaneventwherecitizens,policymakersandfirstrespondershadcometogethertohearabouttheseplans,providecritiquesaroundanygapsandaddressthecapacityofthecommunitytopreparetheirownhouseholds,helpoutneighboursandperhapsprovidevolunteerassistanceshouldanemergencyoccur.

HavingaccesstovariousGISlayersofinformationfortheregion,itwasdecidedthatmapsforeachofNiagara’stwelvemunicipalitieswouldbemadeavailablesothatparticipantswouldhavereadyaccesstospecificlocalinformationoninstitutions,transportationcorridors,waterwaysandotherassetsthatcouldbeimpactedorbroughtintoplayintheeventofanemergency.

DonMcIverlisted15weatherhazardsonthescreenforalltoview(AppendixC–page16).DonMcIverhadalreadybriefedtheroomonhowtosetprioritiesusingtheHIRAmethod.Participantsweredividedintotheirgroupingsofadjacentmunicipalities,witheachtablehavingalocalmapforconsultationbyfirstresponders,policymakersandcitizens.Afacilitatorandrecorderassistedeachbreakoutgroup.Thefivemunicipalgroupingsgatheredatseparatetablesareasfollows:Lincoln,WestLincolnandGrimsby;NiagaraFallsandNiagara-on-the-Lake;St.CatharinesandThorold;Wainfleet,PortColborneandFortErie,and;PelhamandWelland.(AppendixD:Mapof12MunicipalitiesrepresentedatACERworkshop).

EachgroupidentifiedthetopsixhazardsfromthelonglistprovidedandappliedtheHIRAmethodtoeachhazard.Thosehazardsthatscoredhighest,accordingtothegraphicalanalysis,becametheprioritiesthatweresubjecttothediscussionsthatfollowed(AppendixE:HIRAhazardsandscores).

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RESULTS

Theresultsoftheworkshoparepresentedintwocharts,AppendicesEandF.

Table1.HazardsIdentifiedforNiagaraandCodes

Hazard CodeHumanHealthEmergency

HHE

WaterQualityEmergency

WQE

HealthEpidemic HETransportationEmergency

TE

KeyInfrastructureFailure

KIF

SustainableFoodSystems

SFS

LandUseChange LUCExtremeSnow/Rain ESRFlooding FWindStorm WSPowerFailure PFTornadoes TDrought DEarthquakes EHazardousMaterialsFire

HMF

ExtremeCold ECExtremeTemperatures ETPipeline PL

Fromthelistofallthepossiblehazards,eachmunicipalgroupingselectedalistof

whattheysawasimportant(AppendixE,HIRAHazardsandScores).

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Table2.Examplesofpriorityhazards,bymunicipality,identifiedattheHIRAworkshop,usingtheHIRAmethodology.

Municipalities Top6priorityissues

Grimsby/Lincoln/WestLincoln ResidentialSwimPonds

Niagara-on-the-Lake/NiagaraFalls Traffic,Spills,ExtremeSnow,Wind),Drought,WaterQuality,Tornadoes

St.Catharines/Thorold Epidemic,LandUse,Floods,Storms,PowerOutages,Spills

FortErie/PortColborne/Wainfleet InfrastructureFailure,Wind,PowerOutages

Welland/Pelham Nonedocumented

Fortheshortlistofimportanthazards,theHIRAprocesswasappliedtorankthehazardsinpriority.Participantsdiscussedsomeofthedetailsofthehazardsandwhytheywererankedastheywere(AppendixE).Detailedcommentsfromthediscussionwereannotatedbesideeachhazardalongwitheachscore,foreachmunicipalityorsetofmunicipalgroupings.Thisprovidesarecordofthelevelofhazard,whyitisconsideredahazardandmayformabenchmarkforfuturehazardassessment.

FollowingthisdiscussionoftheHIRApriorities,andreferringtothemaps,participantsidentifiedCommunityAssetsandVulnerabilitiesandrecordedthemonthemapsiftheywerenotalreadymarked.AssetsandVulnerabilitieswerelistedandarepresentedbymunicipality,ormunicipalgrouping(AppendixF:HIRAAssetsandVulnerabilities).

CONCLUSIONS

1. Theworkshopwasthefirstopportunity,toourknowledge,inOntario,forcitizens,plannersandfirstresponderstocometogethertoreviewplans,askquestionsandidentifygapsintheiremergencyplans.

2. Datagatheredfromtheworkshopsindicatesthepriorities,basedontheHIRAanalysis,forNiagara’stwelvemunicipalities(AppendixE).Theseformaguideforpolicymakersindevelopingtheirlocalactionplans,aswellascreatingabaselineforthefuturetohelpassessimprovementsinmitigationandadaptationinyearstocome.Citizenshavebeenempoweredtoask

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questionsanddotheirownpreparations(suchasthe72hourkit)asaresultofthepresentationsanddialoguethattheworkshopsprovided.

3. Anecdotaldataontheassetsandvulnerabilitiesofthevariousmunicipalities(AppendixF)providesinsightintotheconcernsbyaknowledgeablegroup,includinggapsinknowledgesuchaswhoisinchargeforaspecifictypeofemergency.Thesedetailsareusefultoinformplannersandemergencyrespondersaswellascitizensandmayformthebasisforfutureplansandaction.

4. Follow-upwithorganizationsrequestingHIRAfortheirownlocationswillformapartofourfuturework.

Anevaluationsurveyforparticipantswascirculatedfollowingtheworkshop.Aboutone-thirdofattendeesresponded.Theircommentsaresummarizedbelow,alongwithotherobservations.

1. Allrespondersratedthequalityoftheworkshopas“good”,“verygood”,or“excellent.

2. Ninetypercentofrespondersratedthespeakersas“extremelyengaging”or“veryengaging”.

3. Astothevalueoftheworkshop,sixtypercentofresponderssaid“havingarangeofstakeholders”;40%answered“discoveringnewinformation”,andnearly40%indicated“workingwithmaps”.

4. Eightyfivepercentofrespondersindicatedthatthe‘nofee’aspectoftheworkshopwasofvaryinglevelsofimportancetohavingtheirparticipation.

5. Around80%ofrespondersfeltthattheobjectivesoftheworkshopwereeither“veryclear”or“clear”.

6. ThesurveyrespondersidentifiedalonglistoftopicstheywouldliketohearaboutinfuturethatincludedhavingaHIRAworkshopintheirowncommunity,moreinformationonhowtoprepareforemergencies,enhancinggreeninfrastructure,financingforemergencypreparednessformunicipalitiesandothers.

(AppendixG:Resultsofevaluationsurvey).

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

ThesupportoftheOntarioTrilliumFoundationisgratefullyacknowledged.

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APPENDICES

AppendixA:Agenda

Location CentreforConservationatBall’sFalls–GlenRoom 3292SixthAvenue,Jordan,ONL0R1S0

Hand-outs Agenda72Hours+List,StewardshipGuidesPlantGuides

9:00–9:05 Welcome(JaneHanlon,GreeningNiagara)

9:05–9:15 OrientationfortheDayandIntroductions(GailPicco,ACER)

9:15–10:30 Dr.MarianneKrasny,CornellUniversity(PresentationandQuestions)

10:30–10:45 Break

10:45–11:30 DonMacIver,ClimateScientistandMayorofAmar(PresentationandQuestions)

11:30–12:15 Lunch

12:15–12:35 OrientationfortheWorkshopSessionsDeannaLindbland,NPCAandMadelynWebb,ACER

12:35–1:15 BreakoutSession:HIRAProbabilityand ConsequenceMapping(SixGroups)

1:15–1:55 BreakoutSession:AssetMapping(SixGroups)

2:00–2:40 ReportsfromSession1and2

2:45–3:00 ConcludingRemarks(AliceCasselman,ACER)

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AppendixB:ListofAttendees

FirstName LastName OrganizationAdam Allcock ManagerofWaterandWasteWater,TownofLincolnAlice Casselman ACERAmy Brunning HeartlandForestAndre Sergeyev StatisticianBianca Bielski PlannerBill Hunt PerkinsFireDepartment,AssisstantFireChiefCaitlin Garner MastersstudentatBrockUniversityCarolanne Forster GreenPartyCarolyn King MississaugasoftheNewCreditFirstNationsCatherine Wassmansdorf RiverwoodConservancyColleen McNamara Corey Burant NiagaraParks,ParksStewardshsipCoordinatorDeanna Lindbland NiagaraPeninsulaConservationAuthorityDon MacIver SpeakerEd Smith Edith George HeritageTrees(UFO)Erin Campbell Gail Picco ACERGeorge Henry ChippewaoftheThamesFirstNationHamsha Pathmanathan ACERHarry Flagg FireChief,WainfleetJade Lalonde BrockUniversityJane Hanlon GreeningNiagaraJason Gallagher HaldimandCountyJason Culp St.Cathatines,EnvironmentalServicesTechnicianJoan Medina ResidentJoe Favro John Bacher GreeningNiagaraJohn Wilson Jonalyn Sagisi SheridanCollegeJonathan Bastien ConservationHamiltonJoyce Sankey ResidentKarl Elison St.Catharines

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Kestral Wraggett ConservationHaltonKirushanth Gnanachandran RiverwoodConservancyLeanne Collett ConservationHamiltonLinda Casselman ACERLisa MacPherson NiagaraCatholicDistrictSchoolBoard-P4CTeacherLou Alvaraz Madelyn Webb ACERMallory Fennell Maria Rekrut Marianne Krasny CornellUniversityMarianne Karsh ACERMartin Corneau ACERMelissa Prout AusableBayfieldConservationAuthorityMike McMillan ACERNate Smelle GreeningNiagaraNimesha Basnayaka ACEROlav Sibille PlannerandProjectLeader,CityofMississaguaPamela Bunnin NiagaraParksPaul McNamara Peggy Allewell St.CatharinesPeter Dmytrasz CityofTorontoPhilip Curtis NiagaraRegionRehana Rajabali TRCARita Bijons CREWRobert Lymburner Sadia Butt UofTSonya Wieler ACERSundus Ansari UTMstudentThaia Jones SierraClubTom Staton Tony Juric YorkUniversityTrevor Doomernik LincolnFireandRescueServiceTyler Prince Vincent Pang Win Laar Yapa Kiriwanegedara SheridanCollegeYvonne Hopkins

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AppendixC:HIRAMethodology

HazardsIdentificationandRiskAssessment,Trends,andtheirValue

forWaterSystemsManagers

AlanaMcCulloch-AuldandHeatherAuld

Preparedfor

ACER

AssociationforCanadianEducationalResources

http://acer-acre.ca/

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IntroductiontoaHazardsIdentificationandRiskAssessmentProcess

In2003,OntarioproclaimedBill148(theEmergencyManagementAct),whichisnowtheEmergencyManagementandCivilProtectionAct,RSO1990.Theintentofthelegislationwasto“improveandpromotethesustainablemanagementofhazardsandtoencouragecommunitiestoachieveacceptablelevelsofrisk”.ThelegislationmandatedallmunicipalitiesandprovincialgovernmentdepartmentstoundertakeacompleteHazardsIdentificationandRiskAssessment(HIRA)processtoidentifypriorityriskstopublicinfrastructureandpublicsafetyandtodevelopprioritizedemergencymanagementplansforeachoftheirtop-rankedrisks.Theprocessrequiredthatmunicipalitiesandgovernmentdepartmentsidentifypotentialhazardsinageographicarea,assesstheirlikelihoodofoccurrence(probability)anddeterminetheimpactthatcouldberealizedifthehazardoccurred(consequence).TheHIRAprocessprovidesmunicipalitiesanddepartmentswiththemeansbywhichtoidentifythehazardsthatposethehighestrisktotheregioninordertoprioritizeinvestmentsinplanningandmitigationstrategies.

Often,whenlong-timeresidentsofageographicarea(andevensubjectmatterexperts)areaskedtheirsubjectiveopinionsontheprobabilityandlikelihoodofdifferenthazards,therecanbemanydifferentresponsesthatvarygreatly,eventhoughtheresidentsmayberecallingtheexactsameevents.Thissubjectivevariabilityhighlightstheneedforanobjective,evidence-basedHIRAprocess,onethatnotonlylooksatpastoccurrences,butalsolookstothefuturebyusingrecentlyobservedtrendsandprojectedimpactsofachangingclimate.Themoreinformed,comprehensiveanddetailedtheprocessusedtocompleteaHIRA,themoreeffectiveatoolthatregionalmanagersthenhavetobuildtheircommunity’sresilience.

Weather,ClimateandRiskstoWaterwaysOntarioislocatedinasevereweatherbattlegroundwherewarmmoistairfromtheGulfofMexicoortheAtlanticOceanfrequentlyconflictswithcoldarcticoutbreaksandwheremeteorologicalsystemstrackthroughtheprovincefromallpossibledirectionsandorigins.Snowstorms,icestorms,tornadoes,windstorms,severethunderstormsandlightning,heavyrainstormsandflooding,coldandheatwaves,extremeHumidexvalues,forestfiresanddroughtsallcanresultindamagestoproperty,livelihoods,andnaturalheritageandthreatenthelivesofOntarioresidents.InsupportofthislegislationandincollaborationwithEmergencyManagementOntario,EnvironmentCanadadevelopedanAtmosphericHazardswebsite(www.hazards.ca)toshareandadditscollectionofpeer-reviewedatmosphericandclimatologicalhazardsinformation.

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TheProvinceofOntariohascompiledalistof37hazardsthatareconsideredtobepossibleinmostgeographicareasandshouldbeassessedinaHIRAprocess.Thelistofhazardsincludes19naturalhazards,13technologicalhazards,and5human-causedhazards.Ofthesehazards,7canbedirectlyattributedtowaterwaysandtheirmanagement1andatleast9ofthehazardshavethepotentialtonegativelyimpactwaterways2.Whenthesecondaryimpactsofotherhazardsaretakenintoaccount,thepotentialforsignificantimpactscanbeevengreater.

Asurveyofthetop-rankedHIRAidentifiedrisksforallOntariomunicipalities(MacIveretal,2009)indicatedthatatmosphericandweather-relatedhazardsareamongthetop-rankedrisksformostcommunitiesandinfrastructure.Forexample,almosthalfofthemanymunicipalitiesthatrespondedtothesurveyidentifiedtornadoesandseverethunderstormsintheirtop-10risks.Indeed,municipalitiesoverwhelminglylistedsevereweathereventsingeneralastheirnumberonerisk,definingsevereweatherasicestorms,snowstorms,tornadoes,severethunderstormsandhail,windstorms.

Figure1.Top-rankedHIRAidentifiedrisksforOntarioMunicipalities(Extractedfrom:MacIveretal,2009).

1Damfailure,flooding,erosion,drought,landslides,landsubsidenceandwaterqualityemergencies.2Oil/naturalgasincidents,transportationemergencies,nuclearincident,radiologicalincident,tropical(orextratropical)storms,Hazardousmaterialsincident-fixedsite,hazardousmaterialsincident-transportation,terrorism,extremeheat/cold.

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ConductingaHIRAAHIRAcanbefocusedintwodifferentways:ageographicorregionalapproach(consideringhazardprobabilityanditsimpactonaspecificmunicipality,watershed,region,orothergeographically-limitedunit),orfunctionally(wherethelikelihoodandseverityofahazardimpactingaspecificserviceorfunctionbyagovernment,governmentunit,orcompanyisconsidered).Typically,ageographicapproachisused,withcarefulanalysesofcriticalinfrastructureimpactsinaspecificarea.

Steps

EstablishingcontextThestartoftheHIRAprocessrequiresinformationontheregionalcontext,includingidentificationofwhytheHIRAisbeingconducted,thekeystakeholdersinvolved,therisktoleranceandresponsecapabilityoftheorganizationandthekeyphysicalfeaturesofthearea.AtrulyeffectiveHIRAalsoconsidersthecontextoftheregionalpopulation,includingageandincomedistributions,employment,geographicconcentrationofthepopulationandanyendemicsocialissues.Itiscriticalthatthelocalclimateandgeographybewellunderstoodanddocumented.Factorssuchaselevation,floodplainzones,biodiversityandecosystemservicestotheregion(e.g.forfloodriskreduction),waterresources(suchasaquifers,overlandflow),soilwaterholdingcapacity,waterstoragecapacity(e.g.wetlands,reservoirs),majorlanduseandforesttypescanalleffecthowahazardwillimpactaregion.

IdentifythehazardsAtthisstage,themostsignificanthazardsthatcouldimpactthegeographicareaareidentifiedandtheirpotentialimpactsareassessed.Theinitialhazardidentificationcanbedoneinavarietyofways,butitisessentialtovalidatefindingswithobjectivedatawhereverpossible.HazardidentificationcanbeundertakenthroughaHIRAcommittee’sresearch,byinterviewingsubjectmatterexpertsonspecificrisks,bypollingkeystakeholdersorthroughothertechniques.TheidentifiedhazardsundertheOntarioHIRAprocessneedtoberankedas‘likely’,‘possible’or‘unlikely’.Hazardsthatareranked‘likely’or‘possible’areconsideredhigherpriorityforthecompleteriskassessment(nextsteps).

RiskassessmentandevaluationWhileriskisgenericallydefinedas“achanceorpossibilityofdanger,loss,injury,orotheradverseconsequences”(OxfordDictionary),itistypicallyexpressedinemergencymanagementasbeingastheinfluenceofprobabilityandconsequence.Theriskassessmentprocessconsiderstheprobabilityandconsequenceofthehazardinthecontextofpotentialimpactstovulnerablepopulations,critical

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infrastructure,waterqualityandquantity,environment,humanhealth,theeconomy,andotherfactorsvitaltoacommunity.

RisksundertheOntarioHIRAprocessarerankedaccordingtothescalebelow(Table1,Figure2),andthenratedonamatrixthatplotsprobabilityandconsequenceonx-andy-axes.

Table1:TypicalProbabilityandConsequenceRatingValuesProbability Consequence1=Noincidentsinthelast15years. 1=Negligibleimpact.2=Morethanfiveyearssincethelastincident.

2=Limitedimpact(localizeddamage).

3=Oneincidentinthelastfiveyears. 3=Substantialimpact(Widespreaddamage,temporarydisruptionofbasicservices).

4=Severalincidentsinthelastfiveyears.

4=Highimpact(Widespreadandseveredamage,disruptionofessentialservices).

Figure2:ProbabilityandConsequenceRiskAssessmentGrid

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AddingvaluetotheriskassessmentprocessAdditionalregionalinformationcanbeusedtoincreasethevalueandaccuracyoftheHIRAprocess.Forexample,whenassessingprobabilities,itisimportanttonotonlyconsiderrecentpastevents,butalsothepotentialforchangesinwhatisnormal.Thisimprovesproactiveconsiderationofsomeofthelowprobability,veryhighimpacteventsdescribedas“BlackSwanevents”3—eventsthatarenotbelievedtobepossibleuntiltheyarewitnessed.Inothercases,weather,climateandwater-relatedhazardsmaybechangingduetoeitherclimatevariabilityorclimatechangeandthepasthistorywillnotreflecttherisksforfuturedecades.Inthesecases,itisimportantthattrendsandprojectionsorfutureprobabilitiesshouldconsideredinidentifyingtheimpactsofchanginghazards.

ImplementingmeasurestoreducethreatsOncethetopriskshavebeenidentifiedregionally,avarietyofmeasurescanbeconsideredandimplementedtoreducetheimpactsofthevarioushazards.Theriskreductionadaptationmeasuresrequireacarefulbalancingofthelikelihoodofthehazard,theeffectivenessoftheriskreduction,cost/benefitanalysesandcapacitytorespond–allbasedonsubjectmatterexpertinput.Responsemeasurescanrangefromnear-termemergencyplanningtolong-termriskreductionandinclude:

Prevention-Preventionaimstopreventorreducetheprobabilityofthehazardthroughlegislation(e.g.safetymeasures),enforcement(e.g.pollution),andengineeringanddesign(e.g.watertreatment).Preventionmeasuresaretypicallymorecommonfortechnologicalorhuman-causedhazards.

Mitigationorreductionofrisks-Actionscanbetakentoreducetheimpactofthehazardandthecommunity’svulnerabilitytothehazardinthefuture(e.g.floodplainzoningandplanning,buildingcodes,standards).

EmergencyPreparedness-Thisinvolvesplanningforresponsetoaninevitable,impendingemergencyorpotentialdisaster.Thiscouldincludepublicwarnings,planningandpositioningofresources,andhavingresponsestaffonstandby.

EmergencyResponse-Theresponsephaseoccursdirectlyaftertheemergencyhashappenedandconsistsofactionstakentopreserveimmediatelife,limb,orproperty.

Recovery-Therecoveryisneededaftertheimmediatethreatisreducedandinvolvestransitioningoradaptingthecommunityfrompost-disasterchaosbackto“normal”functioning.Therecoveryphasecanprovidetheopportunitytoreducerisksintothefuturebybuildingbetteroradaptingtothefuturerisks.

3Taleb,N.N.(2010).Theblackswan.(2ed.).RandomHouse.

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Monitoringandre-evaluationAllHIRAresultsneedtobere-evaluatedonanongoingbasisforaccuracy,relevanceandchangingrisks.Mostimportantly,anongoingreviewprovidesanopportunitytorevisittrends,probabilitiesofhazardsandchangingconsequences(e.g.changingclimate,lossofecosystemservice,criticalinfrastructureandvulnerablepopulationchanges).

ThefollowingdiscussionoutlinesanexampleofabasicandamoreadvancedHIRAcompletedforthemunicipalityof“Somewhereville”inOntariotodealwithfloodingrisks.

Table2:HIRAExampleforFloodRisks-basic

ThefollowingisanexampleofabasicHIRAforfloodinginthefictionaltownof“Somewhereville”.

HazardAssessment:FloodingLeadtime:45minutestoseveralhours.Probability:LastoccurredinMarch2011(in[location]).Historically,[specificwatersheds]aremostlikelytodevelopicejamsandcausefloodingatpointsknowntotheConservationAuthority.Flashfloodsalsooccurwithheavyrainfallonaverageeverytwoyears.

Score:4

Consequence:Approximately2000homes(6000people)areatriskofflooddamagefroma20-yearflood.Highpotentialfordamagetopropertydamage,personalinjury,debris,andhumanhealthrisksfromcontamination.Erosionishastenedwithflooding,andanincreasedamountofsedimentinwatersystemscanhavenegativeimpactsonthesystem’sbiodiversity.Floodingistypicallyfairlylocalized.

Score:2

Totalscore:6

Table3:HIRAExampleforFloodRisks-detailedThefollowingisanexampleofamoreadvancedHIRA,whichcontainsmoredetailedinformationthanthebasicHIRAandincludestrends,vulnerablepopulations,andcriticalinfrastructure.

HazardAssessment:FloodingLeadtime:45minutestoseveralhours.Probability:LastoccurredinMarch2011(in[location]).Historically,[specificwatersheds]aremostlikelytodevelopicejamsandcausefloodingatpointsknowntotheConservationAuthority.Flashfloodsalso

Score:4

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occurwithheavyrainfallonaverageeverytwoyears.Trends:Somewhereville,alongwithotherregionsinCanada,hasexperiencedstatisticallysignificantincreasesinannualprecipitation4,inadditiontoanincreaseinthenumberofheavyorveryheavyprecipitationevents.Consequence:Approximately2000homes(6000people)areatriskofflooddamagefroma20-yearflood(asperGISstudiesandhistoricalflooddata).Highpotentialfordamagetopropertydamage,personalinjury,debris,andhumanhealthrisksfromcontamination.Erosionishastenedwithflooding,andanincreasedamountofsedimentinwatersystemscanhavenegativeimpactsonthesystem’sbiodiversity.Floodingistypicallyfairlylocalized.

• Vulnerablepopulations:Atrailerparkislocatedwithinthefloodzoneofa20-yearfloodinthenorthendofthetown,whichisparticularlyvulnerabletoflooding.Childrenareatanincreasedriskofinjuryfromfloodingbecauseoftheircuriosityandstature.

• CriticalInfrastructure:Highprobabilityofdisruptionoftransportationwithroadandhighwayflooding.Potentialforutilityoutageswithfloodinganddelayedemergencyservicesresponsetimes.Hazardousmaterialspillsinafloodmaycontaminatelocalwatersupply.

Score:2

Totalscore:6AC’sNOTEthatthetotalscorecanbeusedtoassignprioritiesforfurtherresearchandactionplanning.

Table4:Somepotentialstrategiestoreducefloodingrisksfor“Somewhereville”.

SampleRiskManagementStrategiesforFloodingPrevention:• Ensureappropriatezoningpreventsresidentialbuildingin

floodzones.• Change/addoverlandflow;enhancewaterstorage,

wetlands,forestcover,andpermeableurbansurfaces.• Ensureconstantwaterlevelmonitoring,especiallyinareas

thatarepronetoflooding.Mitigation: • Considerbuildingdykesandwater-retainingstructuresfor

vulnerablestructuresthatexistinflood-proneareas.• Buildadditionalstormwatercapacity(e.g.reservoirs,de-

couplingofcombinedsewers,biggerstormwaterconveyancecapacity,greenroofs).

4Vincent,L.A.andÉ.Mekis,2006(updated;trends1950-2007).ChangesindailyandextremetemperatureandprecipitationindicesforCanadaoverthetwentiethcentury.Atmosphere-Ocean,44(2):177-193.

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• Relocation.• Publiceducationregardingfloodandwatersafety.

Preparedness: • Stagingsandbagsandsimilarresourcesnearareasexpectedtofloodandpreparationsforpotentialevacuations.

• Provideearlywarningstoresidentsatrisk.• Notifythemunicipalityaffectedassoonasthereispotential

forflooding.Response: • Addadditionalprotection(e.g.sandbagging)andrerouting

ofoverlandflow.• Ensureemergencyresponse,includingevacuations,

emergencysheltersasrequired.• Assesswaterqualityandadvisepublichealthunitto

determinetheneedforwateradvisoriesRecovery: • Ensurestructuralintegrityofaffectedbuildings,bridges,

highways,etc.• Assesssedimentlevelsandwaterquality• Monitorwatershedbiodiversityforimpactsandaddress

needs• Addadditionalprotectionofvulnerableproperties,wetland

buffersandotherecosystemprotectionservices,relocationifnecessary.

TheValueofObjectivedataandTrendsInarapidlychangingworld,itisessentialtonotonlyplanforthepresent,buttokeepaneyeonfuturetrendsandadjustaccordingly.Withclimatechange,theprobability,consequence,andmeansbywhichahazardimpactsacommunityarelikelytochange,andmanagersneedtotakethesechangingrisksintoaccountwhencreatingaHIRAforprudentandeffectiveemergencymanagementprograms.

Objectivedatacanhelpremoveobservationalbiasfromindividualassessmentsandgiveemergencymanagersamoreaccurateviewoftherisksposedtoacommunitybyindividualhazards.StatisticsonprevioushazardoccurrencesshouldbekeptandanalysedforHIRAdevelopment,alongwithpastandprojectedtrendsinformationfromreputablesources.

ConclusionHIRAshavelongbeenrequiredbyemergencymanagersatthemunicipal,provincial,andnationallevelsofgovernment.ConductingaHIRAcanbringsignificantadvantagestomunicipalities,otheragenciesandlevelsofgovernmentinappropriatelymitigatingorreducingrisks,respondingto,andrecoveringfromhazardouseventsfacingwatersystems.WhilecompletingaHIRA,managersmustconsidertheregion’sprobabilityandconsequencesofimpacts(usingobjectivedata

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wherepossible),aswellasvulnerablepopulations,potentialimpacttocriticalinfrastructure,andhistoricalandprojectedclimatetrends.Anevidence-basedHIRA,appropriatepreventionandreductionofhazardsandrisks,andacomprehensive,all-hazardsapproachtoplanningiskeytobuildingresiliencewithincommunitiesandorganizations.

References

Auld,H.,MacIver,D.,Klaassen,J.,Comer,N.,andTugwood,B.2007.PlanningforAtmosphericHazardsandDisasterManagementunderChangingClimateConditions.EnvironmentCanada,OccasionalPaperNo.12,16pp,Availablefrom:http://www.ec.gc.ca/Publications/0532BB2A-2DB3-4DA3-9A89-6CCB98F2225E%5CPlanningForAtmosphericHazardsAndDisasterManagementUnderCurrent.pdfEnvironmentCanada,2012.AtmosphericHazards–Canada.AccessedJan,2012at:http://www.hazards.ca/intro-e.html.

MacIver,D.,Butt,S.,Klaassen,J.,andAuld,H.2009.SevereweatheristhenumberonerisktoMunicipalitiesinOntario.MunicipalWorld,119(12).pp.17-20.

Vincent,L.A.andMekis,É.2006.ChangesindailyandextremetemperatureandprecipitationindicesforCanadaoverthetwentiethcentury.(updated;trends1950-2007).Atmosphere-Ocean,44(2):177-193.