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1
Individual continuities, social mobility and cumulative inequalities along the life course
The example of Germany
Steffen Hillmert
University of Tübingen
2
Overview
• (1) Primarily descriptive information on occupational mobility in Germany and its change over time
-> Long-term inter-cohort comparisons
• (2) Developments along the life course
-> Also: Conceptual links between analyses of intra-generational mobility and...
…analyses of co-variation/determination
...analyses of (changes in) distributions
3
In particular: Cumulative (dis-)advantage and mobility
• General idea: Small differences in the beginning lead to larger differences later on („Matthew effect“, cf. Merton et al.)
• Mechanisms: Accumulation of resources etc.
• Here: specific perspective of describing intra-cohort developments of social inequality
• Links with conventional perspectives of analysis?
• -> Depends on definitions/measurement concepts...
4
Cumulative (dis-)advantage and mobility
• (1) Collective polarisation: (cross-sectional) intra-cohort differentiation increases over time (-> distribution aspect)
• (2) Social closure: status changes become increasingly difficult over time -> decreasing mobility rates (-> mobility aspect)
• (3) Individual-level accumulation: (longitudinal) intra-cohort
differentiation increases over time (-> mobility and distribution aspect)
-> Intra-generational mobility is one dimension of (2), (partly) a necessary consequence of (1) and directly influences (3)
5
Theory
Institutional factors that favour cumulative disadvantage:
• stratified educational/training systems which transfer social inequality to the labour market
• labour markets which highly rewards individual success (def. 1), but also
• labour markets which support continuity in employment careers (def. 2, 3)
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Germany since Word War II: Hypotheses
• Relatively stable systems of education and occupation
-> small changes in overall inequality along the life course and across cohorts (1)
• Clear hierarchical differentiation by origin (esp. through education) (2)
• Continuous individual accumulation/high risks of long-term exclusion (3)
• One "case" -> theoretical references / historical changes...
7
Data
• German Life History Study, retrospective surveys of selected birth cohorts
• Here: West Germany only• (More continuous) men's careers only
Birth cohort Data collection in...
n(Men) Transition to labor market during historical period...
Important historical events/trends
1919-21 1985-86 546 1930s/40s World War II1929-31 1981-83 333 1940/50s Immediate Post-war period
Two German states‘Economic miracle’Educational expansionOil crisisMass unemployment German unification and beyond
1939-41 1981-83 354 1950/60s1949-51 1981-83 344 1960/70s1954-56 1989 506 1970s1959-61 1989 456 1970/80s1964 1998-99 663 1980s1971 1998-99 595 1980/90s
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Data
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Data
• Very different observation windows...
• ...two strategies:
-> (I) Inter-cohort comparisons of early careers (all cohorts)/
short-term developments along the life course
In particular: Transition-rate models (right-censored data)
-> (II) Long-term developments along the life course
(combined data on 1919-21 and 1929-31 birth cohorts only)
10
Data
• Main dependent variable: occupational status represented by occupational prestige measured according to Treiman (SIOPS)
• a measure which is readily available for all cohorts
• Independent variables: age and social origin (and education)
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(I) Inter-cohort comparisons
12
Occupational status
Range of occupational status (mean +/- 1 std) at the beginning of careers, by cohort
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1919-21 1929-31 1939-41 1949-51 1954-56 1959-61 1964 1971
Light-coloured bars: First occupation, dark-coloured bars: Occupation at age 30
13
Mobility rates in early careers
Relative mobility rates (odds ratios) by cohort
(1919-21 = 1)
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1919
-21
1929
-31
1939
-41
1949
-51
1954
-56
1959
-61
1964
1971
1919
-21
1929
-31
1939
-41
1949
-51
1954
-56
1959
-61
1964
1971
Upward mobility Downward mobility
14
Inter-generational mobility
Proportion (percentages) of men who had a lower status than their fathers at first job, by cohort
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1919-21 1929-31 1939-41 1949-51 1954-56 1959-61 1964 1971
15
Counter mobility
Men’s relative chances of upward mobility (odds ratios) when having lower status than father, by cohort
0
1
2
3
4
1919-21 1929-31 1939-41 1949-51 1954-56 1959-61 1964 1971
16
A simple path model of the labour-market entry process
Father’s occupation
First occupation
Occupation at age 30
Education
17
A simple path model of the labour-market entry process
• Results of inter-cohort comparisons:
• Degree of overall structuration (i.e., prediction of occupational status at the beginning of careers and later on) remains high
• No clear trend across cohorts
• But: marked fluctuations from one cohort to another
18
(II) Long-term developments along the life course
• 1919-21 and 1929-31 only (combined)
• The three definitions of cumulative advantage...
19
(1) Collective polarisation
Mean occupational status (and +/- 1 std), by age
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
Mean + 1 std
Mean
Mean - 1 std
20
(1) Collective polarisation
Range of status (as mean deviations +/- 0.5 std) from the overall mean), by social origin and age
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
Low origin
Low origin
High origin
High origin
21
(2) Individual-level mobility / Social closure
Upward mobility: Relative mobility rates (odds ratios), by age and social origin
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59
High origin
Low origin
22
(2) Individual-level mobility / Social closure
Downward mobility: Relative mobility rates (odds ratios), by age and social origin
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59
Low origin
High origin
23
Inter- and intra-cohort mobility
Proportion of men who have a lower status than their fathers, by social origin and age
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
High origin
All
Low origin
24
(3) Individual accumulation
Dispersion in accumulated status (as deviations from the mean), by age and social origin (Mean accumulated status and +/- 0.5 std)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
Mean + 1 std
Mean
Mean - 1 std
25
(3) Individual accumulation
Dispersion in accumulated status (as deviations from the mean), by age and social origin (Mean accumulated status and +/- 0.5 std)
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
High origin
High origin
High origin
Low origin
Low origin
Low origin
26
Summary
• (1) Little change in the status distributions at any given point in time (i.e., no collective (cross-sectional) polarisation)
• (2) Clearly decreasing rates of mobility with age: change of individual occupational increasingly unlikely
-> status order becomes consolidated
• (3) Individual-level accumulation: Steadily cumulating advantage and disadvantage
• + Clear stratification of attained occupational status by social origin, which persists (or even increases) throughout the careers
27
Conclusions
• Pattern typical for an institutional system characterised by a differentiated educational system and a qualification-based labour market ("insider/outsider")
• Makes it likely that the impact of social origin is transferred to the labour market through education and has a long-lasting effect on employment careers
• Historical trends are less clear
• Members of any single cohort have been affected by very specific and changing conditions
28
Conclusions
-> Pay more attention to conceptual questions:
• (Necessary) links between hypotheses from different perspectives
• (Typical) empirical associations
29
Further developments
• Look at a longer sequence of cohorts including younger cohorts
• Use inter-national comparisons as a reference
• Compare with income trajectories
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