1 Microscale Air Dispersion Modeling Community Health Neighborhood Assessment Program Working Draft...

1

Microscale Air Dispersion Modeling

Community HealthNeighborhood Assessment Program

Working Draft Do Not Cite or Quote

Tony Servin, P.E.

October 10, 2001

Air Resources Board

California Environmental Protection Agency

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Overview

• Local Emissions Only– Cars & Trucks

• CALINE

– Facilities• ISCST3, AERMOD, CALPUFF

• Primary Emissions– no chemical reaction– no deposition

Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote

3

Overview (cont.)

• Today’s results are predicted with

– ISCST3

– CALINE

• Inhalation Risk is based on predicted

concentrations from local emissions

Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote

4

General Location

Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote

•Lindbergh Field

•North Island

•Shipping Lane

•Logan Memorial

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Closer LookBarrio Logan / Logan Heights

Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote

•Rail Line

•Shipping Lane

•Shipping Docks–B Street

–10th Street

•Logan Memorial

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Aerial View of Barrio LoganWorking Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote

Local Sources

Facilities

Point and Volume Sources

Rail Line

Volume Sources

Shipping Lane

Volume Sources

Logan Memorial

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Working Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote

•Lindbergh Field–Approach–Climb Out

•North Island–Approach–Climb Out

•Shipping Lane•Logan Memorial

Total 660 Point and Volume Sources

Satellite View of San Diego

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WIND ROSE PLOT

Station #72290 - ,

NORTH

SOUTH

WEST EAST

3%

6%

9%

12%

15%

Wind Speed (m/s)

> 11.06

8.49 - 11.06

5.40 - 8.49

3.34 - 5.40

1.80 - 3.34

0.51 - 1.80

UNIT

m/s

DISPLAY

Wind Speed

CALM WINDS

11.05%

MODELER

DATE

10/2/01

COMPANY NAME

CARB

COMMENTS

WRPLOT View 3.5 by Lakes Environmental Software - www.lakes-environmental.com

PLOT YEAR-DATE-TIME

2000 Jan 1 - Dec 31Midnight - 11 PM

AVG. WIND SPEED

2.12 m/s

ORIENTATION

Direction(blowing from)

PROJECT/PLOT NO.

Logan Memorial

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Logan Memorial Wind RoseNov 1, 1999 to

Oct 31, 2000

Sea Breeze (predominately daytime)

Land Breeze (predominately nighttime)

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Results - Concentration

• Examples of Concentration Plots

– Perchloroethylene

– Manganese

• ISCST3 results underpredict observed

annual average concentration at Logan

Memorial

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Perc local emissions Ann. Avg.

Working Draft- Do Not Cite or Quote

(obs. 0.54 ug/m 3)

28

th S

t.

Hw

y. 1

5

C om m ercia l

Logan M em oria l

(ug/m 3)

0 m 1 0 0 0 m 2 0 0 0 m

0.000

0.001

0.002

0.005

0.010

0.020

0.050

0.100

0.200

11

Mn local emissions Ann. Avg.

Working Draft- Do Not Cite or Quote

(obs. 0.031 ug/m 3)

28

th S

t.

Hw

y. 1

5

C om m ercia l

Logan M em oria l

(ug/m 3)

0 m 1 0 0 0 m 2 0 0 0 m

0.000

0.001

0.002

0.005

0.010

0.020

0.050

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Motor Vehicle LinksWorking Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote

Input to CALINE

991 Links from DTIM

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Risk Form local emissions

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(obs. 16/m illion)

28

th S

t.

Hw

y. 1

5

C om m ercia l

Logan M em oria l

Inha la tion R isk(per M illion)

0 m 1 0 0 0 m 2 0 0 0 m

0

1

2

5

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Risk Benz local emissions

Working Draft- Do Not Cite or Quote

(obs. 74/m illion)

28

th S

t.

Hw

y. 1

5

C om m ercia l

Logan M em oria l

Inha la tion R isk(per M illion)

0 m 1 0 0 0 m 2 0 0 0 m

0

2

5

10

20

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Risk Cr(VI) local emissions

Working Draft- Do Not Cite or Quote

(obs. < LO D : 30/m illion)

28

th S

t.

Hw

y. 1

5

C om m ercia l

Logan M em oria l

Inha la tion R isk(per M illion)

0 m 1 0 0 0 m 2 0 0 0 m

0

10

20

50

100

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Comparisons to Facility HRA

• Two facilities evaluated without diesel PM

– Southwest Marine

– NASSCO

• Predictions similar, not identical

• Differences likely due to:

– Met. Data (Lindbergh/Logan Memorial)

– Inventory (variations)

– Model options (rural/urban, initial conditions)

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17

Risk Southwest Marine (w/o DPM)

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28

th S

t.

Hw

y. 1

5

C om m ercia l

Logan M em oria l

Inha la tion R isk(per M illion)

0 m 1 0 0 0 m 2 0 0 0 m

0

2

5

10

20

50

100

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Risk NASSCO (w/o DPM)

Working Draft- Do Not Cite or Quote

28

th S

t.

Hw

y. 1

5

C om m ercia l

Logan M em oria l

Inhalation R isk(per M illion)

0 m 1 0 0 0 m 2 0 0 0 m

0

2

5

10

20

50

100

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Risk - Facilities (w/o DPM) local emissions

Working Draft- Do Not Cite or Quote

28

th S

t.

Hw

y. 1

5

C om m ercia l

Logan M em oria l

Inha la tion R isk(per M illion)

0 m 1 0 0 0 m 2 0 0 0 m

0

20

50

100

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Risk DPM local emissions

Working Draft- Do Not Cite or Quote

28

th S

t.

Hw

y. 1

5

C om m ercia l

Logan M em oria l

Inhalation R isk(per M illion)

0 m 1 0 0 0 m 2 0 0 0 m

0

100

200

500

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Risk Summary local emissions

Working Draft- Do Not Cite or Quote

28

th S

t.

Hw

y. 1

5

C om m ercia l

Logan M em oria l

Inhalation R isk(per M illion)

0

100

200

500

0 m 1 0 0 0 m 2 0 0 0 m

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Inhalation Risk (per Million) Estimates at Logan Memorial|---------- Modeled ISCST3/CAL3QHCR ------------------------------|

Observed MV NON-MV Diesel Trk Diesel Othr TotalAcet 4 0 0 0Benz 74 4 1 5Buta 88 5 3 8Cr(VI) < LOD 16 16Form 16 1 1 2Meth Chl 0 0 0Ni 1 0 0Perc 3 0 0TCE 0 0 0other 23 5 5Total 210 10 27 37

DPM 27 107 134

0 means less than 0.5 / millionCr(VI) was observed on occasion but is generally below LOD (30/million)

Risk at Logan MemorialWorking Draft - Do Not Cite or Quote

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Further Analysis

• Simulations with

– AERMOD

– CALPUFF

• Evaluation of the tracer studies and

model performance

Working Draft - Do Not Cite - Do Not Quote

24

Conclusions• Diesel PM is the major contributor to

inhalation Risk

• Facility risk similar to HRA risk

• ISC/CALINE generally underpredicts observations at Logan Memorial

• Need to supplement microscale evaluation with regional background evaluation

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