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Near-Earth objects – a threat for Earth?Or: NEOs for engineers and physicists
Lecture 9 – Politics
Prof. Dr. E. Igenbergs (LRT)Dr. D. Koschny (ESA)
Image credit: ESA
News
Web site of the European Commission-funded project NEOShield is online since 21 Jun 2012 – NEOShield will study strategies on asteroid deflection, budget ca. 5 Mio Euro. Check out http://www.neoshield.net
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More news
Asteroid 308242 (2005 GO21) – size 1.4 km! - flew within 17 lunar distance of Earth yesterday
3http://www.neoshield.net/en/news-and-events/news/close-approach-of-large-asteroid-today.htm
Outline
The United Nations (UN) and the NEO threat – history of the Action Team 14 (AT 14)
How do the UN work
Intermezzo – the IAU and risk metrics
The decision process within ESA
Proposed decision process within AT 14
History of the Action Team #14
In 1999, the NEO issue came to the attention of the UN during the Unispace III conference (3rd UN conference on the exploration and peaceful uses of outer space)
Resulted in 40 ‘recommendations’
If a country offered to take the lead in following up any of the recommendations, an ‘Action Team’ would be installed
Unispace 3 conference 1999 as the starting point of UN’s interest
See: A/Conf. 184/6
The Space Millennium: Vienna Declaration on Space and Human Development, Resolution 1 , para (1) (c)
(i) To improve the scientific knowledge of near and outer space by promoting cooperative activities in such areas as astronomy, space biology and medicine, space physics, the study of near- Earth objects and planetary exploration;
(iii) To improve the international coordination of activities related to near-Earth objects, harmonizing the efforts directed at identification, follow-up observations and orbit prediction, while at the same time giving consideration to developing a common strategy that would include future activities related to near-Earth objects.
In 2001, the ‘Action Team on NEOs, also known as Action Team 14’ was established by COPUOS. Two phases:
• Assessment phase
• Implementation phase
… “develop draft recommendations for the Scientific and Technical Subcommittee on the international response to the NEO threat []. As endorsed by the Subcommittee, the recommendations pass on for consideration by COPUOS. If COPUOS endorses the recommendations, they move on to the UN General Assembly.“
AT-14 milestone: 2008 report by the Association of Space Explorers “Asteroid Threats: A call for Global Response”
The final AT-14 report is due in February 2013 to the STSC; will go to COPUOS in June 2013
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Interim reports can be found athttp://www.oosa.unvienna.org/oosa/en/COPUOS/stsc/2012/docs.html
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Status – proposed structure
United NationsSecurity Council
MAOGMission Authorisation and
Oversight Group
IAWNInformation, Analysis, and
Warning Network
SMPAGSpace Mission Planning
and Advisory Group
From the ASE report “Asteroid Threats:A call for global response”
IAWN: observations, orbit prediction, impact effects modelling, communication
SMPAG: assess space missions for impact mitigation
MAOG: political body
Disaster management community
The United Nations
COPUOS = Committee for Peaceful Use of Outer Space
STSC = Scientific and Technical Subcommittee
NEO WG = NEO Working Group
General Assembly
Legal SC
Action Team 14
STSC
COPUOS
NEO WG
Security Council
Intermezzo – the IAU
IAU = International Astronomical Union
Requires that if a data centre computes an impact risk larger than 1 % of the background risk, the results have to be validated with another data centre
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Intermezzo – metrics for impact probabilities
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• IP = Impact Probability• E = Energy released by the impact in Mt• T = Time span until the impact in years
PS = log10 R
The Palermo scale
R ~ IP
pbT
NOTE 1: pb = background riskpb = 0.03 E-4/5
Note 2: PS = -2 means that the particular impact risk is 1% of the background impact risk until the time of impact.
NOTE 3: 1 kt TNT = 4.184 * 1012 J
2011 AG5
d = 130 – 290 m => assume 200 m, v = 15 km/s
T = 28 years
With = 2000 kg/m3: m = 8 109 kg
Kinetic energy E = 9 1017 J or 225 Mt TNT
pb = 3.9 10-4 per year
PS = -0.74 – on NEODyS -1.06 (different diameter assumed?)
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SSA-NEO-ESA-HO-055/1-, 06 May 2011, dvkPage 17
Directorof SRE
Key players and responsibilities - I
DirectorGeneral
ESACore Team
ESATechnical Staff
ProgrammeBoard
advises
directs
directs
supports
report
Directorof HSO
directs
UserGroup
Contractors(Industry, institutes)
HSO = Directorate of Human Spaceflight and Operations
SRE = Directorate of Science and Robotic Exploration
SSA-NEO-ESA-HO-055/1-, 06 May 2011, dvkPage 18
Key players and responsibilities - II
User group
• Consists of experts, stake holders, and user representatives (space agencies, political decision makers, …)
• Advises both Core Team and Programme Board on requirements, architecture, implementation
Programme Board
• Consists of Delegates to ESA of the subscribed countries (political people)
• Decides on requirements, architecture, implementation (normally based on documentation prepared by Core Team)
Director General
• Can override decisions by Programme Board
• Decides on locations based on recommendations by the Programme Board
SSA-NEO-ESA-HO-055/1-, 06 May 2011, dvkPage 19
Key players and responsibilities - III
ESA Core Team
• Consists of the Programme Manager, three Segment Managers, some other people dedicated 100 % to SSA
• Acts as ‘executive’ – manage the implementation of the programme following the directives from the Programme Board
• Responsible for technical decisions
• Prepare and follow design and implementation as done by industry/institutes (Statement of Work, progress meetings…)
Contractors
• Consist of industry or institutes
• Actually perform the work as defined by Core Team
• Report to Core Team
SSA-NEO-ESA-HO-055/1-, 06 May 2011, dvkPage 20
So what does the Action Team 14 recommend?
Status – proposed structure
United NationsSecurity Council
MAOGMission Authorisation and
Oversight Group
IAWNInformation, Analysis, and
Warning Network
SMPAGSpace Mission Planning
and Advisory Group
From the ASE report “Asteroid Threats:A call for global response”
IAWN: observations, orbit prediction, impact effects modelling, communication
SMPAG: assess space missions for impact mitigation
MAOG: political body
Disaster management community
Status - IAWN
Information, Analysis and Warning Network (IAWN)
• Workshop in Mexico City, January 2010
• Space-related elements of IAWN essentially exist: observing teams, modellers, risk analysts
• In fall 2012: Formation of an IAWN Steering Group, hosted by NASA
Screenshot of NEODyS, the European system to predict possible impacts
Optical Ground Station – ESA’s 1-m telescope used ~4 nights per month for asteroids
Status - SMPAG
Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG)
• 1st: Hosted by ESA in Darmstadt, Oct 2010
• 2nd: Hosted by NASA in Pasadena, Aug 2011
• Draft Terms of Reference were written
• Discussed by a first ’SMPAG preparation meeting’ with space agencies in the margins of COPUOS STSC meeting, Feb 2012 + second meeting on 08 Jun 2012
• Third meeting possibly in Oct 2012
SMPAG workshop #01, Oct 2010, ESOC
Status - MAOG
MAOG
• Has been discussed in latest AT 14 meetings, 11/12 Jun 2012
• Proposed to be COPUOS
• IAWN and SMPAG will report to COPUOS via statements of the national Delegates
Status – interaction with disaster management organisations
Still open
Interaction chain within countries needs to be defined
Summary
For a system model, the following points need to be taken into account in addition to any technical points:
Organizational structure as proposed by the Action Team 14
Decision process within the agencies
Decision process within the UN
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