2012 Elections and Public Opinion Dan Nataf Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues Anne...

2012 Elections and Public Opinion

Dan Nataf

Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues

Anne Arundel Community College

www2.aacc.edu/csli

Center for the Study of Local Issues:Semi-annual survey• Conducted each March and October

• Involves 70+/- students as telephone interviewers

• Contents: − Benchmark questions on the economy, most important

problem, right/wrong direction, and demographics− Variable questions on current policy choices and major events

Plan – focus on the election

• What are current trends− Most important problem facing residents− Right/wrong direction− Perceptions of the economy− Economic circumstances

• How are these trends related to choices for president and ballot/referenda items

• Where are we in the election nationally

• Discussion!

Most Important Problem

'07 '08 ‘08 '09 ‘09 ‘10 ‘10 ‘11 ‘11 ‘12Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring ‘12 Fall

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

8

23

38

48

3336 36 35

48

3027

17 16

1210

12 1113

119

17 1716

12

9

5 5 5

24 4 4

3

19

1514

11

21

17

2119

13

2423

Economy Taxes – too high Growth EducationTraffic congestion Crime / drugs Unsure/no answer Other answer

Economy

Taxes

County: Right or Wrong Direction? Spring ‘99 to Fall ‘12

Sp '99

Fa '99

Sp '00

Fa '00

Sp '01

Fa '01

Sp '02

Fa '02

Sp '03

Fa '03

Sp '04

Fa '04

Sp '05

Fa '05

Sp '06

Fa '06

Sp '07

Fa '07

Sp '08

Fa '08

Sp '09

Fa '09

Sp '10

Fa '10

Sp '11

Fa '11

Sp '12

Fa '12

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

5754

5855

62

66

60 61 62

51

58 58

53

5755

51 52 51 5052

47

52 5249 50

47

43

50

23

2725 24 23

15

26

21

25

3431

24

2927 26

2927

33 32 3128 27 28 28 28

32

41

36

20 1917

20

15

19

14

18

1315

12

19 1816

1820 21

16 17 17

25

21 2023 22 22

1614

Right Wrong Unsure

Right/Wrong and Partisanship:% saying “Right”

Levels Overall Dem. Rep. Dem-Rep.

Unaff.

County 50 58 40 18 56

State 36 55 16 39 35

Nation 36 59 13 46 33

Respondent 78 83 71 12 83

Obama Vote by Right/Wrong Direction: County, State and USA

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

County - Right, 16

County - Wrong, -32

State - Right, 61

State - Wrong, -49

USA - Right, 73

USA - Wrong, -56

Respondent- Right, 4

Respondent - Wrong, -22

Economic Conditions Excellent + Good: Fall ‘06 to Fall ‘12

‘06 ‘07 ‘07 ‘08 ‘08 ‘09 ‘09 ‘10 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘12Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall ‘11 Spring Fall-5

5

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

71 7169

55

4946

48

44 45

49 4851

48

2730 31 32

3533

38

33

5

11 11 11 119

1316

County

State

USA

Obama Vote by Perceptions of the Economy - County, State, USA

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

County Excellent, 31

County Good, 4

County Fair, -6

County Poor, -48

State Excellent, 50

State Good, 32

State Fair, -6

State Poor, -56

USA Excellent, 47

USA Good, 63

USA Fair, 32

USA Poor, -57

Cost of living indicators: S ‘08-F ‘12

S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '11 F '11 S '12 F '120

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

47

58 59 59

6360

63

58

63 63

5659

55 55 56 56

63

59

66

59

40

32

21

17

2124

41

30

36

30

61

5053

4244 43

46

39 39

32

0 0 0 0 0 0 0

26

35

31

21

11 12 1315

10

1411

15

911

15

24 24

1921 20 21

1714

0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1416

11

Hard to afford cost of taxes* Wages or salaries are not rising as fast as the cost of living

Hard to afford cost of transportation Hard to afford cost of utilities such as electricity or gas

Received a salary increase or other increase in income recently Unable to find affordable housing

Facing the possibility of unemployment Found a new or better job recently

Taxes

Inflation

Utilities Cost

Transport Cost

Unemployment

Housing Cost

Found job

Salary Increase

Other economic indicators

S '08 F '08 S '09 F '09 S '10 F '10 S '11 F '11 S '12 F '120

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0

71

75

70

56

60

52

60

44

38

11

15

24 24

1921 20 21

1714

0 0

51

46 4744

47

51

45

38

35

30 29

33 3234 35

32 32

27

64

68 7 7

9 8 8

4

Loss Stocks, pensions

Delay major purchase

Health care unavailable

Unemployment

Home foreclosure

Obama Vote by Economic Circumstances – F ‘12

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Wages or salaries not rising, -7

Received a salary increase , 6

Unemployment, 8

Found job, 2

Losses stocks/re-tirement, -20

Foreclosure, -7

Affordable housing, -5

Transportation cost, -25

Utilities cost, -19

Purchase delay, -13

Health care in-surance, -10

Hi Taxes, -28

Consumer Confidence: F ‘11 – F ‘12

Obama Vote and Consumer confidence

0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Excellent, 29

Good, 44

Fair, 53

Somewhat poor, 28

Very Poor, -41

Obama Vote by Candidate Attributes

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Congress -work with, -5 (87%)

Right ideas - economy, -4,

(89%)

Defend America, -11, (85%)

Background appeal-ing, 1 (34%)

Relates to people like me, 15 (58%)

Other candidate - dislike, 8 (29%)

VP choice, -4(48%)

Obama Vote by Demographics

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

-100

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Lib, 84

13

-67

64

-76

-9-13

2

-48

2 1

36

50

-20

-21

-8

8

-8 -15

90

2922

-29-21

60

-13

-55

13

21

-13

1911

-12

6

22

13

-7 -10-4

71+, -21

Presidential Job Approval

2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall Spring Fall

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

35

28

24

53

47 47

42

47

37

42

44

32

30

25

61

54

47

43

47

40

45

50

CSLI Gallup

Most important issue by candidate  Overall Obama Romney Undecided

Economy 49 35 59 68

Trust, honesty, character 7 9 6 8

Foreign affairs, national security, defense 7 5 9 0

Healthcare 6 9 4 4

Women’s issues (abortion, contraception, equal rights) 5 9 3 4

Dislike of other candidate 5 6 5 0

Other answers 20 28 14 16

Total 99 101 101 100

Ballot Items: Referenda

Same Sex Marriage by Demographics

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Lib, 65

20

-48

30

-38

20

HS Dip, -25

-7-10

12

18

-12

-3

-15

1411

8

26

6

-24

47

31

-15

-21

40

-7

-22

35

-3

40

-8

-17

22 21

51

-3-5-6

-24

Dream Act by Demographic Variables

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Lib, 43

Mod, -4

Cons, -56

Dem, 17

Rep, -53

-16

-39

-27-31

-6

PGW, 11

-34

-14 -16-18

-9-15 -15

Defense, -48

Student, 17

-47

Not LabMkt, 11

-19

-2

NoRel, 36

-26

WhiteEvang, -52

-26

Jewish, 30

-23

-35

Spiritual, 12

-21

-14

Sep/Div, 5

-2

-21

-7

County Vote for President

  Overall Democrats Republicans Unaffiliated

Barack Obama42 77 8 34

Mitt Romney 47 14 84 49

Undecided 7 5 8 8Someone else 1 2 0 2Wouldn’t vote 0 0 0 2

No answer 2 2 1 6Total 99 100 101 101

Washington Post/ABC Daily Tracking Poll

Map of Battleground States

Nev.

Colo.

Iowa

Wis

Ohio

Va.

NH

Fl.

NC

Vote EstimatesObama Romney

ColoradoVotamatic votamatic.org/ 51 49Silver fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/author/nate-silver/ 50.1 48.9RCP www.realclearpolitics.com/ 48.6 47.7

49.9 48.5FloridaVotamatic 50 50Silver 49.4 50.1RCP 47.9 49.1

49.1 49.7IowaVotamatic 51.7 48.3Silver 51 48RCP 48.2 46.2

50.3 47.5NevadaVotamatic 52 48Silver 51.3 47.8RCP 50 47.3

51.1 47.7New HampshireVotamatic 51.7 48.3Silver 51 48.2RCP 48.8 47.5

50.5 48

Obama RomneyNorth CarolinaVotamatic 49 51Silver 48.4 51RCP 46 49.8

47.8 50.6OhioVotamatic 51.6 48.4Silver 50.7 48.1RCP 48.9 46.6

50.4 47.7VirginiaVotamatic 51 49Silver 50.1 49.2RCP 47.9 47.4

49.7 48.5WisconsinVotamatic 52.4 47.6Silver 51.6 47.6RCP 50 45

51.3 46.7Total Votamatic none NoneSilver 50.5 48.6RCP 47.4 47.3

49 48Electoral CollegeVotamatic 332 206Silver 300 237RCP 290 248

307 230