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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE ON LAST PAGE
Auerbach Grayson & Company, LLC 25 West 45th Street, New York, NY 10036
Telephone: 212 557 4444 Toll Free: 1 800 31 World Operations: 212 557 4478 Fax: 212 557 9066 Web: www.agco.com
RESEARCH REPORT DISTRIBUTED BY: www.agco.com
PREPARED BY:
November 27, 2013
Price: INR 945.00
India
[Automobile Manufacturers] Bloomberg: [MM IN]
Market Cap: USD 9,329.30 m
Outstanding Shares: 615.89 m
Six Month Avg. Daily Trading Vol.
(USD m): 20.96
52 Week High/Low: INR 1,025.87 / INR 740.15
The attached research report and the excerpts from the research report below were written entirely by a broker partner of Auerbach Grayson, and not by Auerbach Grayson. Auerbach Grayson is distributing/providing this
research report for your consideration.
MAHINDRA & MAHINDRA HOLD THROUGH THE CHAIRMAN'S EYES
Mr Mahindra shared his views on how functioning as a conglomerate provides all verticals of the group scope to benefit from synergies and varied linkages. Further, it also creates an all important bed-rock for values and core purposes for the entire group. With most businesses functioning independently, it also creates an entrepreneurial spirit among business heads, which can be nurtured by easy access to resources.
His vision is to create a large mobility brand where all segments (be it two-
wheelers, commercial vehicles, or UVs) come under the overall mobility ecosystem. This vision comes from past experience where both tractors and UVs benefitted from the huge commonalties in the backend. Despite the group initially starting out on a very low scale and with a lack of technology, these back-end synergies between farm and auto segments has helped them not only survive, but survive with higher return on capital than most global players. The commonalities in raw material procurement, research and development, engine design, skill set can be shared across the entire mobility ecosystem. For example, it now gets global synergies with Ssangyong (besides common sourcing, they are now jointly designing a new petrol engine).
One of the key rationales for taking the group global is that it keeps them on their
toes and hence helps them stay competitive, and ultimately survive. With all global players descending on India, Mr Mahindra was candid to share that the Group is definitely not safe in India if they are not competitive abroad. Hence, the plan will remain to go out and compete with the rest of the world as that is one of the best survival techniques.
YE MAR Revenue (INR m)
EBITDA (INR m)
Net Profit (INR m)
EPS (INR)
PER (X)
EV/EBITDA (X)
Div. Yield (%)
2015E 442,918.00 64,082.00 44,103.00 67.10 14.10 9.60 1.80 2014E 389,447.00 55,687.00 38,222.00 58.20 16.20 11.20 1.60 2013A 383,566.00 53,293.00 36,344.00 53.90 17.50 11.70 1.40 2012A 313,811.00 41,613.00 29,970.00 44.00 21.50 15.30 1.30 2011A 235,641.00 36,215.00 26,870.00 39.20 24.10 17.60 1.10
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING L IMITED 27 November 2013 ||||| 4FROM THE RESEARCH DESK
MANAGEMENT INTERACTION
Mahindra & Mahindra LimitedThrough the Chairman's eyesMahindra & Mahindra hosted a call with chairman and managing director,Mr Anand Mahindra. He shared his views on the synergistic benefits fromfunctioning as a conglomerate, competitive advantages of each vertical in aweak economic environment, and how his aspirations for globalisation ofthe group are actually more of a survival technique.
The call reinforced our positive view on the group's ability to capitalise onthe long-term growth opportunities. We have a Hold rating on the stock asthe reasonable valuation (auto business at a P/E of 11.3x/9.8x FY14/15) isoffset by a negative view on the company's current competitive cycle in utility-vehicles.
Key highlights from the call:
Synergistic benefits of being a conglomerate:
Mr Mahindra shared his views on how functioning as a conglomerate provides all verticals ofthe group scope to benefit from synergies and varied linkages. Further, it also creates an all-important bed-rock for values and core purposes for the entire group. With most businessesfunctioning independently, it also creates an entrepreneurial spirit among business heads,which can be nurtured by easy access to resources.
Foraying into varied segments doesn't necessarily result in loss of focus:
His vision is to create a large mobility brand where all segments (be it two-wheelers, commercialvehicles, or UVs) come under the overall mobility ecosystem. This vision comes from pastexperience where both tractors and UVs benefitted from the huge commonalties in the back-end. Despite the group initially starting out on a very low scale and with a lack of technology,these back-end synergies between farm and auto segments has helped them not only survive,but survive with higher return on capital than most global players. The commonalities in rawmaterial procurement, research and development, engine design, skill set can be sharedacross the entire mobility ecosystem. For example, it now gets global synergies with Ssangyong(besides common sourcing, they are now jointly designing a new petrol engine).
Globalisation of the group - A unique survival technique:
One of the key rationales for taking the group global is that it keeps them on their toes andhence helps them stay competitive, and ultimately survive. With all global players descendingon India, Mr Mahindra was candid to share that the Group is definitely not safe in India ifthey are not competitive abroad. Hence, the plan will remain to go out and compete with therest of the world as that is one of the best survival techniques.
Weak economic cycle has thrown up opportunities for the Group:
While the macro-economic environment is currently weak, the situation of the Mahindra Groupisn't as bad. For example, IT (Tech Mahindra) has benefitted substantially from a weakercurrency. The used car business (Mahindra First Choice) benefits in a price sensitive environmentwhere buyers are tentatively allocating large capital. Tractors remain in an orbit of its ownafter the strong monsoon (the spill-over effects of which are yet to fully reflect in demand).With a weaker currency, Indian tourism (Mahindra Holidays) benefits from a temporarydiversion in tourism from overseas travel to domestic. To some extent, even the automotivebusiness has benefitted as the weak INR acts as an informal entry barrier for the overallmanufacturing industry. Being a blue-blooded local player with high localisation levels, M&Mhas a competitive advantage against foreign original equipment manufacturers who are yetto ramp-up their vendor base in India.
Ashish Nigam+91 22 4031 3443ashish.nigam@antiquelimited.com
Saksham Kaushal+91 22 4031 3433saksham.kaushal@antiquelimited.com
Current Reco : HOLDPrevious Reco : HOLDCMP : INR945Target Price : INR960Potential Return : 2%
Market dataSensex : 20,425Sector : AutomobilesMarket Cap (INRbn) : 582Market Cap (USDbn) : 9O/S Shares : 61652-wk HI/LO (INR) : 1026/740Avg Daily Vol ('000) : 1,152Bloomberg : MM IN
Returns (%)1m 3m 6m 12m
Absolute 9 17 (2) 3Relative 10 6 (6) (7)Source: Company, Antique
Shareholding patternPromoters : 25%FII : 36%DII : 17%Others : 22%ource: Bloomberg
ValuationFY13 FY14e FY15e
EPS (INR) 53.9 58.2 67.1PE (x) 17.5 16.2 14.1P/BV (x) 4.1 3.5 3.0EV/EBITDA (x) 11.7 11.2 9.6Dividend Yield (%) 1.4 1.6 1.8
Source: Bloomberg
Price performance vs Nifty
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
6080
100120140
Nov-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 Nov-13M&M NIFTY
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING L IMITED 27 November 2013 ||||| 5FROM THE RESEARCH DESK
Pockets of growth in many international markets:
While the Group's aspirations are global, it doesn't necessarily mean that they are exposingthemselves to lower growth markets. For example, USA has been one of their fastest growingtractor markets as customers have been down-trading to relatively smaller Mahindra tractors.The alliance with CIE Automotive would bear fruit as the Spanish economy stands to emergestronger after withstanding several austerity measures. Even Ssangyong's new line of lifestylevehicles have benefitted from an evolving culture of weekend getaways among the SouthKorean youth. Hence, there are possibilities for grow in several global markets provided theright and relevant pocket of growth is recognised at an early stage.
We maintain our Hold rating!
While the call reinforced our positive view on the group's ability to capitalise on the long-termgrowth opportunities, we continue to have a negative view on the competitive cycle of thecompany's UV business. While their UV market share has already fallen to ~42% from ~55%,further market share loss looks inevitable. Till all competitors of strong repute haven't had theirfair shot at this relatively untapped UV space, we would refrain from fathoming a guessabout where M&M's UV market share will stabilise.
We maintain our Hold recommendation with a target price of INR960 per share, owing toreasonable valuations - core auto business trades at a P/E of 11.3x/9.8x FY14/15e.
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING L IMITED 27 November 2013 ||||| 6FROM THE RESEARCH DESK
Our view:
UVs find the fancy of urban buyers (doesn't help M&M)
What really kept the urban buyer away from the SUV space historically was the lack of anapt urban SUV in the market (Mahindra Bolero and Tata Sumo never fitted the bill). However,SUV as a product has found the fancy of the urban buyer, which is evident from the successof recent launches. Unfortunately for M&M, that's where the current growth is coming from.While the Mahindra brand (which is better associated in rural regions) is superbly equippedto counter competitors in Tier II and III cities, the brand conscious urban buyer might beswayed by an equally (if not more) competent product by a foreign OEM.
UV market share
Source: SIAM, Antique
Mere upgrades may not be enough
The Duster selling upwards of 5k units/month is a concern, given that the parent brand(Renault) is probably the weakest in India among all the foreign OEMs. It also makes uswonder what kind of numbers a similar product from a formidable competitor (Maruti, Toyota,Hyundai) might do. M&M's UV market share has fallen to 42% from 55% (gained by MarutiErtiga, Renault Duster, Ford EcoSport) even as competitive pressures in the compact SUVspace are at the tip of the iceberg. Besides the Ford EcoSport and Nissan Terrano, there arecompact SUV launches expected from Maruti (XA-Alpha), VW (Taigun), Tata, Hyundai andToyota over the next 2-3 years. On the other hand, M&M's product pipeline seems moreskewed towards refreshments of existing UVs. To counter the upcoming competitor flurry,something like an XUV300 seems to be the need of the hour (mere refreshments of the Bolero,Scorpio, etc might not cut it with the urban buyer). While spy shots of the S101 (all newmonocoque chassis; sub-four metre UV) looks to be a step in the right direction, it is to beexpected only in FY16. We fear that might be too late.
Tractors remain a ray of hope
Notwithstanding the near-term concerns of over-capacity, the good monsoons should helpmaintain this buoyancy in tractors. For M&M in particular, should the lagging south Indianmarket recover, not only would it improve their market share (South India is their strongestmarket with a ~50% market share), but also improve their product mix and thereby margins(South India is a high horse power market).
42.4% 47.1%55.2% 53.7% 55.6% 47.7% 42.0%
20.3%18.5%
13.0% 13.2% 13.3%
8.0%5.3%
19.7% 17.0%19.7% 20.6% 19.0%
16.9%14.3%
1.6% 3.3% 1.4% 1.8% 1.8% 14.3% 11.2%
6.0%17.2%
7.1% 9.9%
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 YTDFY14M&M Tata Motors Toyota Others (Ford/Chevy) Renault Maruti
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING L IMITED 27 November 2013 ||||| 7FROM THE RESEARCH DESK
Valuations/tractors the sole support to the stock Maintain Hold rating!
The auto business is facing issues which aren't exactly cyclical. Further market share loss looksinevitable. Till all competitors of strong repute haven't had their fair shot at this relativelyuntapped UV space, we would refrain from fathoming a guess about where M&M's UVmarket share stabilises. We maintain our Hold recommendation with a target price of INR960per share owing to reasonable valuations - core auto business trades at a P/E of 11.3x/9.8xFY14/15e.
SOTP ValuationSOTP Methodology Value (INRm) Value per share
Core Auto Business (M&M + MVML) A 10x FY15e Core EPS 417,610 636
Value of Key Subsidiaries & Investments: (pro-rated) Stake
Ssangyong 70% Market Value 53,191 81
Tech Mahindra 48% Market Value 100,722 153
Mahindra Forgings 53% Market Value 2,197 3
M&M Financial Services 58% Market Value 85,374 130
Mahindra Lifespaces 51% Market Value 8,318 13
Mahindra Holidays & Resorts 75% Market Value 16,114 25
Total value of Key Subsidiaries & Investments 265,916 405
Discount
Holding company discount 20% 53,183 81
Net Value of Key Subsidiaries & Investments B 212,733 324
SOTP Value of Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd A + B 630,342 960Source: RBI, Antique
ANTIQUE STOCK BROKING L IMITED 27 November 2013 ||||| 8FROM THE RESEARCH DESK
FinancialsProfit and loss account (INRm)Year ended 31st Mar 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015eRevenues 235,641 313,811 383,566 389,447 442,918
Expenses 199,426 272,198 330,273 333,760 378,836
EBITDA 36,215 41,613 53,293 55,687 64,082
Depreciation & amortisation 4,739 6,699 8,178 9,212 10,772
EBIT 31,476 34,913 45,115 46,474 53,309
Interest expense 1,477 2,874 2,964 3,268 3,431
Other income 4,272 4,735 5,697 6,433 7,398
Extraordinary Items 1,175 1,083 906 - -
Profit before tax 35,445 37,858 48,755 49,640 57,277
Taxes incl deferred taxation 8,575 7,887 12,410 11,417 13,174
Profit after tax 26,870 29,970 36,344 38,222 44,103
Adjusted profit after tax 25,696 28,888 35,438 38,222 44,103
Adjusted EPS (INR) 39.2 44.0 53.9 58.2 67.1
Balance sheet (INRm)Year ended 31st Mar 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015eShare Capital 3,276 3,285 3,285 3,285 3,285
Reserves & Surplus 99,824 119,574 147,268 173,961 204,998
Networth 103,100 122,859 150,553 177,246 208,283
Debt 33,864 42,824 41,523 43,576 45,741
Capital Employed 136,964 165,683 192,076 220,822 254,024
Gross Fixed Assets 62,277 94,277 108,107 128,107 158,107
Accumulated Depreciation 32,124 38,823 47,001 56,214 66,986
Capital work in progress 25,019 13,362 16,362 21,362 16,362
Net Assets 55,172 68,816 77,468 93,255 107,483
Investments 79,662 94,872 108,940 122,013 140,315
Current Assets, Loans & Advances
Inventory 19,121 29,150 30,736 32,009 36,404
Debtors 12,926 18,121 20,668 21,340 24,269
Cash & Bank balance 6,149 12,909 18,227 12,974 14,117
Loans & advances and others 34,538 35,054 41,306 44,049 46,977
Current Liabilities & Provisions
Liabilities 50,134 68,756 78,373 76,955 85,648
Provisions 16,926 18,593 19,339 20,306 22,336
Net Current Assets 5,673 7,885 13,225 13,111 13,783
Deferred tax (assets)/liabilities 3,544 5,890 7,557 7,557 7,557
Application of Funds 136,964 165,683 192,076 220,822 254,024
Per share dataYear ended 31st Mar 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015eNo. of shares (m) 655.2 656.9 656.9 656.9 656.9
BVPS (INR) 157.4 187.0 229.2 269.8 317.1
CEPS (INR) 48.2 55.8 67.8 72.2 83.5
DPS (INR) 10.8 12.5 13.0 15.0 17.0
Margins (%)Year ended 31st Mar 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015eEBITDA 15.4 13.3 13.9 14.3 14.5
EBIT 13.4 11.1 11.8 11.9 12.0
PAT 10.9 9.2 9.2 9.8 10.0
Source: Company, Antique
Key assumptionsYear ended 31st Mar 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015eUVs & UV Pick-ups 274,793 354,967 436,928 405,395 446,489
Total Auto Volumes 377,063 483,246 563,373 521,533 573,794
Tractor Volumes 213,653 235,452 223,885 265,304 297,140
Total Volumes 590,716 718,698 787,258 786,837 870,934
Growth:
Auto Volumes 26.4 28.2 16.6 (7.4) 10.0
Tractor Volumes 22.3 10.2 (4.9) 18.5 12.0
Total Volumes 24.9 21.7 9.5 (0.1) 10.7
Cash flow statement (INRm)Year ended 31st Mar 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015eEBIT 31,476 34,913 45,115 46,474 53,309
Depreciation & amortisation 4,739 6,699 8,178 9,212 10,772
Interest expense 1,477 2,874 2,964 3,268 3,431
(Inc)/Dec in working capital (8,498) 4,548 (21) (5,139) 471
Tax paid (7,617) (5,541) (12,410) (11,417) (13,174)
CF from operating activities 21,275 41,702 41,768 39,130 51,378
Capital expenditure (24,891) (20,343) (16,830) (25,000) (25,000)
Inc/(Dec) in investments (15,682) (15,210) (14,069) (13,073) (18,302)
Income from investments 4,272 4,735 5,697 6,433 7,398
CF from investing activities (28,721) (31,880) (25,202) (31,639) (35,904)
Inc/(Dec) in debt 5,062 8,961 (1,302) 2,053 2,165
Others (7,423) (9,149) (9,992) (11,529) (13,067)
CF from financing activities (3,838) (3,062) (14,257) (12,744) (14,332)
Net cash flow (11,283) 6,760 5,318 (5,253) 1,143
Opening balance 17,432 6,149 12,909 18,227 12,974
Closing balance 6,149 12,909 18,227 12,974 14,117
Growth indicators (%)Year ended 31st Mar 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015eRevenue 26.7 33.2 22.2 1.5 13.7
EBITDA 22.5 14.9 28.1 4.5 15.1
PAT 28.7 11.5 21.3 5.2 15.4
EPS 14.3 12.1 22.7 7.9 15.4
Valuation (x)Year ended 31st Mar 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015eP/E 24.1 21.5 17.5 16.2 14.1
P/BV 6.0 5.1 4.1 3.5 3.0
EV/EBITDA 17.6 15.3 11.7 11.2 9.6
EV/Sales 2.7 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.4
Dividend Yield (%) 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.8
Core Auto P/E (incl MVML) 16.6 14.9 12.1 11.3 9.8
Core Auto EV/EBIDTA 11.8 10.2 7.7 7.4 6.3
Core Auto EV/Sales 1.8 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.9
Financial ratiosYear ended 31st Mar 2011 2012 2013 2014e 2015eRoE 24.9 23.5 23.5 21.6 21.2
RoCE 31.9 26.0 28.9 26.5 25.5
Debt/Equity (x) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2
EBIT/Interest (x) 21.3 12.1 15.2 14.2 15.5
Source: Company Antique
Antique Stock Broking LimitedNirmal, 2nd Floor, Nariman Point, Mumbai 400 021.Tel. : +91 22 4031 3444 Fax : +91 22 4031 3445
www.antiquelimited.com
Important Disclaimer:
This report is prepared and published on behalf of the research team of Antique Stock Broking Limited (ASBL). ASBL, its holding company and associatecompanies are a full service, integrated investment banking, investment advisory and brokerage group. Our research analysts and sales persons provideimportant inputs for our investment banking and allied activities. We have exercised due diligence in checking the correctness and authenticity of theinformation contained herein, so far as it relates to current and historical information, but do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. The opinionsexpressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing in the material and may be subject to change from time to time without any notice. ASBL or anypersons connected with it do not solicit any action based on this report and do not accept any liability arising from the use of this document. The recipientsof this material should rely on their own judgment and take their own professional advice before acting on this information. The research reports are forprivate circulation and are not to be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Unless otherwise noted, all research reportsprovide information of a general nature and do not address the circumstances of any particular investor. The distribution of this document in certainjurisdictions may be restricted by law, and persons in whose possession this document comes, should inform themselves about and observe, any suchrestrictions. ASBL its holding company and associate companies or any of its connected persons including its directors or employees shall not be in any wayresponsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained, views and opinions expressed inthis publication. ASBL its holding company and associate companies, officers, directors, and employees may: (a) from time to time, have long or short positionsin, and buy or sell the securities thereof, of company(ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such securities and earnbrokerage or other compensation or act as advisor or lender/borrower to such company(ies) or have other potential conflict of interest with respect to anyrecommendation and related information and opinions. ASBL, its holding company and associate companies, directors, officers or employees may, from timeto time, deal in the securities mentioned herein, as principal or agent. ASBL its holding company and associate companies may have acted as an InvestmentAdvisor or Merchant Banker for some of the companies (or its connected persons) mentioned in this report. The research reports and all the informationopinions and conclusions contained in them are proprietary information of ASBL and the same may not be reproduced or distributed in whole or in partwithout express consent of ASBL. The analyst for this report certifies that all of the views expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal viewsabout the subject company or companies and its or their securities, and no part of his or her compensation was, is or will be, directly or indirectly related tospecific recommendations or views expressed in this report.
Analyst ownership in stock No
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Telephone: 212 557 4444 Toll Free: 1 800 31 World Operations: 212 557 4478 Fax: 212 557 9066 Web: www.agco.com
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IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE The attached research report was prepared by the broker partner named the research report and is current only as of the date of the research report. The research report was not prepared by Auerbach Grayson & Company and the broker partner that prepared the research report is not an associated person of Auerbach Grayson & Company. The broker partner named on the research report and its research analysts are not members of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority and are not subject to the FINRA Rules on Research Analysts and Research Reports and the attendant restrictions and disclosures required by that rule.[If the report is to be distributed to more than major U. S. Institutional Investors Auerbach Grayson & Company accepts responsibility for the contents of this report as provided for in SEC Releases and SEC staff no-action letters.] All persons receiving the attached research report and wishing to buy or sell any of the securities discussed in the attached research report should do so through a representative of Auerbach Grayson & Company. Auerbach Grayson & Company and its affiliates do not own one per cent (1%) or more of any class of equity securities issued by any of the companies discussed in the attached research report. Auerbach Grayson & Company and its affiliates have not received any investment banking compensation from any of the issuers discussed in the attached research report in the past twelve months, and does not intend to seek or expect to receive investment banking compensation from any of the issuers discussed in the attached research report in the next three (3) months. Auerbach Grayson & Company has not acted as manager or co-manager of any public offering of securities issued by any of the companies discussed in the attached research report in the past three (3) years. Neither Auerbach Grayson & Company nor any of its officers own options, rights or warrants to purchase any of the securities of the issuers whose securities are discussed in the attached research report. Auerbach Grayson & Company does not make a market in any of the securities discussed in the attached research report, and it and its associated persons do not stand ready to buy from or sell to any customers, as principal, any of the securities discussed in the attached research report.
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Page 1DisclosureHighlightsTable Title: Price/Rating AnalysisTable Title: Revenue/Earnings Information
Page 2OverviewTable Title: Price/Rating AnalysisKey highlights from the call:Table Title: Market dataTable Title: ValuationTable Title: Returns (%)Table Title: Shareholding patternGraphics Title: Price performance vs Nifty
Page 3Pockets of growth in many international markets:Price/Rating Analysis
Page 4Our view:UVs find the fancy of urban buyers (doesn't help M&M)Graphics Title: UV market shareMere upgrades may not be enoughTractors remain a ray of hope
Page 5Valuations/tractors the sole support to the stockTable Title: SOTP Valuation
Page 6Table Title: Financials
Page 7Disclosure
Page 8Disclosure (CONT)
Page 9Broker/Analyst Information
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