View
0
Download
0
Category
Preview:
Citation preview
#A3NETWORK January 22-24, 2014 | Hilton Orlando Bonnet Creek | Orlando, Florida USA #A3NETWORK
2014 Motion Control Market Update
Alex Shikany
Director of Market Analysis
Motion Control Association
#A3NETWORK
I. World Economic Drivers
II. Manufacturing Trends
III. Motion Control Results for 2013
IV. What to Expect in 2014
V. Summary and Conclusion
VI. Food & Beverage Packaging Study
VII. MCA Statistics Survey
Agenda
#A3NETWORK
I. World Economic Drivers
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Pe
rce
nt
Ch
ange
USA Euro Area China Japan Brazil India
Faster Growth
Slower Growth
No Growth
World Economic Outlook – Percent Change in Annual Real GDP
Recession Forecast
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
USA 2.5 3.6 3.1 2.7 1.9 0.0 -2.6 2.8 1.8 2.8 1.6 2.6
Euro Area 0.8 2.2 1.7 3.1 2.9 0.4 -4.1 1.7 1.5 -0.6 -0.4 1.0
China 10.0 10.1 11.3 12.7 14.2 9.6 9.2 10.3 9.3 7.7 7.6 7.3
Japan 1.4 2.7 1.9 2.0 2.4 -1.2 -6.3 3.9 -0.6 2.0 2.0 1.2
Brazil 1.1 5.7 3.2 4.0 6.1 5.2 -0.6 7.5 2.7 3.0 2.5 2.5
India 6.9 8.1 9.2 9.7 9.9 6.2 6.8 10.4 6.3 6.9 3.8 5.1
#A3NETWORK
I. World Economic Drivers
10.0
14.0
18.0
22.0
26.0
30.0
34.0
38.0
42.0
46.0
50.0
54.0
USA Euro Area China Japan Brazil
14.0
15.0
16.0
17.0
18.0
19.0
20.0
21.0
22.0
23.0
24.0
25.0
USA Euro Area Japan Brazil
With China Without China
Investment Rates: Investment as a % of GDP
Investment Continues to be Much Higher in
China than Elsewhere in the World
USA and Euro Area are Expected to
Increase in 2014
#A3NETWORK
I. World Economic Drivers
94.00
96.00
98.00
100.00
102.00
104.00
106.00
USA Europe China Japan Brazil
Improving
Conditions
2011 2012 2013
Business Confidence in Major Economies Fell in 2011, Flattened in 2012, and
Rose Mildly in 2013
Source: OECD
Business Confidence Index
#A3NETWORK
II. Manufacturing Trends
40.0
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
65.0
70.0
Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13
China India Japan Brazil
Canada USA Euro Zone Russia
45.0
50.0
55.0
60.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
China India Japan Brazil
Canada USA Euro Zone Russia
PMI (Three Month Moving Averages) Annual Average PMI
Manufacturing Had a Good Year in 2013, Posting Higher Numbers than 2012, and Rising
Toward the End of the Year
#A3NETWORK
II. Manufacturing Trends
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
120.0
130.0
140.0
Japan United States Euro Area Russian Federation
2013
Production in Manufacturing Sector (2005 = 100)
The United States and Japan Were On the Rise in 2013. Euro Area Remained Mostly
Flat and the Russian Federation Fell Slightly.
Source: OECD
#A3NETWORK
III. Motion Control Results for 2013
$0.000
$2.000
$4.000
$6.000
$8.000
$10.000
$12.000
$14.000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Japan
Europe
Asia Pacific
North America
(Billions $) North America
(16%) Asia Pacific
(14%) Europe (38%) Japan (32%) Total World
2008 $1.863 $1.630 $4.424 $3.726 $11.642 2009 $1.304 $1.141 $3.097 $2.608 $8.150
2010 $1.719 $1.504 $4.083 $3.438 $10.745 2011 $2.175 $1.903 $5.165 $4.349 $13.591 2012 $2.183 $1.910 $5.185 $4.367 $13.645
2013 $2.130 $1.864 $5.059 $4.260 $13.313
Estimated Size of the Global Motion Control Market
#A3NETWORK
III. Motion Control Results for 2013
Orders and Shipments Contracted in 2013
NOTE: Orders and Shipments are different primarily because more MCA participating companies supply shipment data than order data for 2009 to
2013.
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Orders $1.525 $2.053 $2.609 $2.550 $2.409
Shipments $1.850 $2.317 $2.942 $2.936 $2.802
% North American 70.5% 74.2% 73.9% 74.4% 76.1%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Orders -32.8% 29.8% 19.0% -3.4% -5.8%
Shipments -30.3% 23.4% 22.3% -1.0% -4.7%
MCA Reported Orders and Shipments in $ Billions (USD)
MCA Year-Over-Year Real Growth Rates (in Percent)
#A3NETWORK
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
III. Motion Control Results for 2013
Relative Size of Product Categories – Orders in $ Millions
#A3NETWORK
III. Motion Control Results for 2013
Largest Product Categories in Terms of Reported Orders are Motors, Electronic
Drives and Actuators. Motion Controllers Increased its Share the Most in 2013.
2011 2012 2013 Average
Motion Controllers 3.5% 3.6% 4.7% 3.9%
Electronic Drives (Amplifiers) 19.6% 19.5% 18.2% 19.1%
AC Drives 14.2% 13.0% 13.9% 13.7%
Motors 36.2% 35.8% 34.9% 35.6%
AC Motors 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.5%
Actuators & Mechanical Systems 16.2% 17.0% 16.9% 16.7%
Sensors and Feedback Devices 4.0% 4.4% 4.5% 4.3%
Other Ancillary Components 4.1% 4.8% 4.8% 4.6%
Support & Services 1.7% 1.4% 1.5% 1.5%
TOTAL MARKET 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Relative Size of Product Categories – Orders
#A3NETWORK
III. Motion Control Results for 2013
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Relative Size of Product Categories – Shipments in $ Millions
#A3NETWORK
III. Motion Control Results for 2013
Similar to Reported Orders, the Largest Product Categories in Terms of Reported
Shipments are Motors, Electronic Drives and Actuators
2011 2012 2013 Average
Motion Controllers 3.3% 3.2% 4.0% 3.5%
Electronic Drives 22.1% 21.6% 20.7% 21.5%
AC Drives 11.7% 11.5% 12.1% 11.8%
Motors 36.9% 35.8% 36.2% 36.3%
AC Motors 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.5%
Actuators & Mechanical Systems 14.9% 15.7% 14.9% 15.2%
Sensors and Feedback Devices 3.4% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6%
Other Ancillary Components 5.8% 6.4% 6.4% 6.2%
Support & Services 1.5% 1.4% 1.6% 1.5%
TOTAL 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Relative Size of Product Categories – Shipments
#A3NETWORK
III. Motion Control Results for 2013
2010 2011 2012 2013 Average
Motion Controllers 47.8% 43.1% -1.0% 24.4% 28.6%
Electronic Drives 12.3% 7.2% -2.7% -12.1% 1.2%
AC Drives 37.5% 45.7% -10.5% 1.1% 18.5%
Motors 21.5% 15.9% -5.8% -7.9% 5.9%
AC Motors 26.1% 37.6% 16.1% -8.5% 17.8%
Actuators & Mechanical Systems 66.9% 12.5% 1.9% -6.8% 18.6%
Sensors and Feedback Devices 69.4% -7.7% 3.2% -2.8% 15.5%
Other Ancillary Components 81.4% 87.2% 13.8% -4.9% 44.4%
Support & Services 39.0% 16.3% -20.3% -1.8% 8.3%
Total Market 29.8% 19.0% -3.4% -5.8% 9.9%
Other Ancillary Components and Motion Controllers have the Highest Average Real Growth
Rates since 2010. For 2013, Motion Controllers Grew the Most, Followed by AC Drives.
Annual Real* Growth Rates by Product Category - Orders
#A3NETWORK
III. Motion Control Results for 2013
Other Ancillary Components and Motion Controllers have the Highest Average Real Growth
Rates since 2010. For 2013, Motion Controllers Grew the Most, Followed by AC Drives.
2010 2011 2012 2013 Average
Motion Controllers 15.9% 34.3% -2.4% 18.7% 16.6%
Electronic Drives 11.3% 15.8% -2.2% -8.8% 4.0%
AC Drives 26.4% 40.6% -2.1% 0.5% 16.4%
Motors 19.2% 19.3% -4.6% -3.6% 7.6%
AC Motors 32.8% 57.7% 8.5% -19.6% 19.9%
Actuators & Mechanical Systems 47.4% 16.4% 4.6% -9.5% 14.7%
Sensors and Feedback Devices 29.0% 23.2% 9.1% -8.4% 13.2%
Other Ancillary Components 63.4% 64.2% 9.3% -4.9% 33.0%
Support & Services 36.7% 7.8% -7.0% 4.9% 10.6%
Total Market 23.4% 22.3% -1.0% -4.7% 10.0%
Annual Real* Growth Rates by Product Category - Shipments
#A3NETWORK
IV. What to Expect in 2014
Major World Economies are Forecasted to Post Single Digit Growth in 2014.
2014 Forecasted Annual Percentage Change in Real GDP
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook
#A3NETWORK
IV. What to Expect in 2014
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Forecast
2014 Forecasted
Growth Rate
$2.203 B $1.525 B $2.054 B $2.610 B $2.549 B $2.409 B $2.558 B 6.2%
$0.0
$100.0
$200.0
$300.0
$400.0
$500.0
$600.0
$700.0
$800.0
1Q
20
07
2Q
20
07
3Q
20
07
4Q
20
07
1Q
20
08
2Q
20
08
3Q
20
08
4Q
20
08
1Q
20
09
2Q
20
09
3Q
20
09
4Q
20
09
1Q
20
10
2Q
20
10
3Q
20
10
4Q
20
10
1Q
20
11
2Q
20
11
3Q
20
11
4Q
20
11
1Q
20
12
2Q
20
12
3Q
20
12
4Q
20
12
1Q
20
13
2Q
20
13
3Q
20
13
4Q
20
13
1Q
20
14
2Q
20
14
3Q
20
14
4Q
20
14
Green = Forecast
Trend-line
Reported MCA Orders
#A3NETWORK
IV. What to Expect in 2014
$0.0
$100.0
$200.0
$300.0
$400.0
$500.0
$600.0
$700.0
$800.0
$900.0
1Q
20
07
2Q
20
07
3Q
20
07
4Q
20
07
1Q
20
08
2Q
20
08
3Q
20
08
4Q
20
08
1Q
20
09
2Q
20
09
3Q
20
09
4Q
20
09
1Q
20
10
2Q
20
10
3Q
20
10
4Q
20
10
1Q
20
11
2Q
20
11
3Q
20
11
4Q
20
11
1Q
20
12
2Q
20
12
3Q
20
12
4Q
20
12
1Q
20
13
2Q
20
13
3Q
20
13
4Q
20
13
1Q
20
14
2Q
20
14
3Q
20
14
4Q
20
14
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Forecast
2014 Forecasted
Growth Rate
$2.556 B $1.850 B $2.317 B $2.942 B $2.936 B $2.802 B $2.922 B 4.3%
Green = Forecast
Trend-line
Reported MCA Shipments
#A3NETWORK
V. Summary and Conclusion
• 2013 was a strong year for manufacturing worldwide
• Policy has eased some concern over Eurozone crisis; Flat or mild
growth expected for 2014
• 2014 is expected to end better than 2013, although some industries
will likely cool in the second half of the year
• Motion control sales contracted mildly in 2013
• Motion control orders are trending to grow 6.2% in 2014
• Motion control shipments are trending to grow 4.3% in 2014
#A3NETWORK
VI. Food & Beverage Packaging Study
Free for all MCA Members
Available Next Week!
41 Pages
Overview of F&B Packaging
Innovation in the Industry
Current Trends
Automation in F&B Packaging
The Role of Motion Control
Also Examines:
F&B Packaging Companies
Packaging Machine Manufacturers
Motion Control Companies
Market Sizing and Motion Control Category Analysis
#A3NETWORK
VI. Food & Beverage Packaging Study
$140.8 $132.0
$114.4
$35.2 $17.6
$-
$20.0
$40.0
$60.0
$80.0
$100.0
$120.0
$140.0
$160.0
NorthAmerica
Asia WesternEurope
Middle East All OtherRegions
F&B Packaging Regional Shares (2013, Billions $)
The Food and Beverage Packaging Market is Worth Approximately $440.0
Billion Annually Worldwide. The Largest Regions are North America (32%),
Asia (30%), Western Europe (26%), the Middle East (8%). All Other Regions
Account for 4%.
#A3NETWORK
VI. Food & Beverage Packaging Study
$- $100.0 $200.0 $300.0 $400.0 $500.0 $600.0 $700.0 $800.0 $900.0
$1,000.0
Worldwide Motion Control Component Markets for F&B Packaging (2013, Millions $)
#A3NETWORK
VI. Food & Beverage Packaging Study
• Programmable Automation Controllers (PACs)
• Decreasing servo loop times
• Increasing reliability; Decrease mean time to repair (MTTR)
• Increased integration of the motion control environment
Motion Control Trends in the F&B Packaging Market
#A3NETWORK
VII. MCA Feedback Survey - Statistics
#A3NETWORK
Contact Information
Alex Shikany Director of Market Analysis
900 Victors Way, Suite 140
Ann Arbor, MI 48108, USA
Phone: (734) 994-6088
Email: ashikany@robotics.org
Twitter: @AlexShikany
Web: www.motioncontrolonline.org
Recommended