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2016 CALIFORNIA ECONOMIC & MARKET FORECAST
October 8, 2015EXPO – San Jose Convention Center
Leslie Appleton-Young, Vice President & Chief Economist
HOW DID I DO?LAST OCTOBER I TOLD YOU …
2015 FORECAST REPORT CARD
Forecast Date: October 2015 vs. October 2014SERIES: CA Housing Market OutlookSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
SFH Resales (000s)
% Change
Median Price ($000s)
% Change
30-Yr FRM
Housing Affordability Index
U.S. Gross Domestic Product
2014 Actual
383.3
-7.6%
$447.0
9.8%
4.2%
30%
2.4%
2015 Forecas
t
402.5
5.8%
$478.7
5.2%
4.5%
27%
3.0%
2015 Project
ed
407.5
6.3%
$476.3
6.5%
3.9%
31%
2.4%
ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
P
Q2-12
Q4-12
Q2-13
Q4-13
Q2-14
Q4-14
Q2-15
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
ECONOMY HAS BEEN GROWING FOR 68 MONTHS
2014: 2.4%; 2015: 2.4%; 2016: 2.6% ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE, CHAIN-TYPE (2005) $
ANNUALLY QUARTERLY
2009 Largest Annual Drop since 1938 (-3.4%)
SERIES: GDPSOURCE: US Dept. of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
3.9%
KEY SECTORS OF MACRO-ECONOMY
Consumer Sector
Business Sector
Government
International Trade
EMPLOYMENT STALLED IN SEPT:142K
Jan-
05
Jul-0
5
Jan-
06
Jul-0
6
Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Jan-
08
Jul-0
8
Jan-
09
Jul-0
9
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
3.0%
2.0%
California USANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE
SERIES: Total Nonfarm EmploymentSOURCE: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CA Employment Development Division
Change Growth
United States
2,752,000
2.0%
California 470,000
3.0%
New York 130,500
1.4%
Texas 217,700
1.9%
198K/mo 2014 avg260K/mo 2015 avg
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE HOLDS STEADY
September 2015: US 5.1% & August 2015:CA 6.1%
Jan-
05
Jul-0
5
Jan-
06
Jul-0
6
Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Jan-
08
Jul-0
8
Jan-
09
Jul-0
9
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14% US-CA CA US
SERIES: Unemployment Rate The U-6 rate covers the unemployed, underemployed and those who are not looking but who want a jobSOURCE: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CA Employment Development Division
UNEMPLOYMENT RATES (U6 VS. U3)
September 2015 = U3: 5.1%, U6: 10.0%
Jan-
05
Jul-0
5
Jan-
06
Jul-0
6
Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Jan-
08
Jul-0
8
Jan-
09
Jul-0
9
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
50%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18% U3 U6
SERIES: Unemployment RatesSOURCE: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CA Employment Development Division
PARTICIPATION DOWN: AGING POP & SLOW JOB GROWTH & HIGH LONG TERM UNEMPLOYMENT
CA- 62.5% (Dec. 2014) vs. USA- 62.7% (Dec. 2014)
60%
62%
64%
66%
68%
70% US CA
Labor Force Rate
SERIES: Labor Force Participation RateSOURCE: BLS, Data Buffet
JOB TRENDS BY CALIFORNIA METRO AREA
BakersfieldVenturaModesto
Los AngelesOakland
Stockton MSAFresno MSASacramento
Inland EmpireSan Diego
Orange CountySan Francisco
San Jose
-1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%
-0.2%0.9%1.0%
1.8%1.9%2.0%
2.6%2.8%
3.0%3.1%3.2%
4.6%5.5%
SERIES: Total Nonfarm Employment SOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE
August 2015: CA +3.0%, +470,000
CALIFORNIA JOB CHANGES BY INDUSTRY
Nondurable GoodsFinance & Insurance
Durable GoodsGovernmentRetail Trade
Educational ServicesInformation
Health Care & Social AssistanceWholesale Trade
Real Estate & Rental & LeasingAdmistrative & Support & Waste Services
Transportation, Warehousing & UtilitiesLeisure & Hospitality
ConstructionProfessional, Scientific & Technical Services
-2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8%
-1.0%
0.4%0.5%
1.3%2.0%2.0%
2.6%2.7%
3.0%3.5%3.5%3.6%
4.3%6.4%
6.8%
SERIES: Total Nonfarm Employment By IndustrySOURCE: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, CA Employment Development Division
August 2015: CA +3.0%, +470,000ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE
NONFARM EMPLOYMENT BY REGION
Aug 2015 Aug 2014 Change % Change
Southern California 8,834.4 8,626.3 208.1 2.4%
Bay Area 4,289.3 4,213.0 76.3 1.8%
Central Valley 1,540.9 1,492.4 48.5 3.2%
Central Coast 1,318.4 1,280.0 38.4 3.0%
North Central 1,391.4 1,349.0 42.4 3.1%
CALIFORNIA 294.4 291.9 2.5 0.9%
Nonfarm Employment (Thousands)
SERIES: Total Nonfarm EmploymentSOURCE: CA Employment Development Division
JOB LOSSES IN PRIOR RECESSIONS - RECENT CYCLE WORST BY FAR
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
September 2015: 103.0
Jan-
05
Jul-0
5
Jan-
06
Jul-0
6
Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Jan-
08
Jul-0
8
Jan-
09
Jul-0
9
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
50
20
40
60
80
100
120INDEX, 100=1985
SERIES: Consumer ConfidenceSOURCE: The Conference Board
CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
August 2015: All Items 0.2% YTY; Core +1.8% YTY
Jan-
05
Jul-0
5
Jan-
06
Jul-0
6
Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Jan-
08
Jul-0
8
Jan-
09
Jul-0
9
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6% All Items Core
ANNUAL PERCENT CHANGE
SERIES: Consumer Price IndexSOURCE: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
IS IT TIME? AH… LET’S WAIT A LITTLE LONGER
MORTGAGE RATES
January 2009 – October 2015
2009
/01
2009
/05
2009
/09
2010
/01
2010
/05
2010
/09
2011
/01
2011
/05
2011
/09
2012
/01
2012
/05
2012
/09
2013
/01
2013
/05
2013
/09
2014
/01
2014
/05
2014
/09
2015
/01
2015
/05
08.2
7.15
09.2
4.15
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
FRMARM
MONTHLY WEEKLY
SERIES: 30Yr FRM, 1Yr ARMSOURCE: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation
RATE HIKE POSTPONED, BUT NOT CANCELLED
Factors for the delay
- Global economic slowdown/Strong dollar• Emerging markets vulnerable to rising rate environment
- Heighten stock market volatility• Negative wealth effect could lead to slowdown in
economic growth
- Avoid a repeat of Taper Tantrum• Fed had not articulated enough on all the moving parts
and did not want to give any surprises
WHERE ARE WE HEADED?
- Fed will likely begin normalization in December (maybe) and rates will gradually increase in 2016 and 2017. Action will be “data determined”
- Risk of rates increasing too fast: bringing economic growth to a halt
- Risk of rates increasing too slow: zero leverage when next downturn hits
MARKET DOWN SHARPLY FROM THE PEAK
1650
1700
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
2150
1,944.4
S & P 500 Composite
MONTHLY AVERAGE
Causes of the financial market turmoil
- Highly valued asset markets
- Economic slowdown in China
- U.S. monetary policy normalization
- Collapse in energy and other commodity prices
CROSS CURRENTS NET OUT
$50 bbl Lower Oil Prices
50 bps Lower Mortgage Rates
15% $ Appreciation
5% Lower Stock Prices
U.S. HOME SALES UP IN 2015
U.S., Aug 2015 Sales: 4,690,000 Units, +8.1% YTD, +6.1% YTY
-
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
4,690,000
*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
U.S. HOME PRICE GAINS MODERATING
U.S., Aug 2015: $230,200, -1.4% MTM, +5.1% YTY
$-
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000 $230,200
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
U.S. COMMERCIAL VACANCY RATES
SOURCE: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Commercial R.E. Q115 Q215 Q315 Q415 Q116 Q216 Q316 Q416 2014 2015 2016
Office 15.1% 15.9% 15.8% 15.5% 15.3% 15.1% 14.9% 14.8% 16.0% 15.6% 15.0%
Industrial 11.3% 10.8% 10.3% 9.8% 9.4% 9.0% 8.5% 8.4% 12.0% 11.7% 8.8%
Retail 13.7% 13.2% 13.0% 12.7% 12.3% 12.1% 11.9% 11.6% 13.8% 13.2% 12.0%
Multifamily 8.4% 6.6% 6.7% 6.6% 6.6% 6.6% 6.6% 6.7% 6.6% 7.1% 7.1%
CA METRO COMMERCIAL VACANCY RATES
2015 Q2
SOURCE: National Association of REALTORS®
MSA Office Industrial Retail Multi-Family
Los Angeles 14.8% 3.6% 5.7% 3.5%
Oakland-East Bay 17.1% 8.2% 6.0% 2.8%
Orange County 16.3% 3.4% 4.6% 3.3%
Sacramento 20.3% 11.1% 10.0% 2.6%
San Bernardino/Riverside 22.4% 7.2% 9.1% 2.5%
San Diego 14.7% 6.4% 6.1% 2.8%
San Francisco 10.6% 10.4% 3.0% 3.8%
San Jose 16.3% 16.2% 4.6% 3.4%
Ventura 16.4% - 8.5% 2.9%
HOUSEHOLD GROWTH AFFECTED BY DEMOGRAPHIC AND ECONOMIC
FACTORS
HOUSEHOLD FORMATION ACCELERATES IN 2015
U.S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015p 2016f
US GDP 2.4% 1.8% 2.3% 2.2% 2.4% 2.4% 2.7%
Nonfarm Job Growth -0.7% 1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 1.9% 2.1% 1.8%
Unemployment 9.6% 8.9% 8.1% 7.4% 6.2% 5.3% 5.0%
CPI 1.6% 3.1% 2.1% 1.5% 1.6% 0.2% 2.1%Real Disposable Income, % Change 1.0% 2.5% 3.0% -0.2% 2.5% 3.3% 2.7%
30-Yr FRM 4.7% 4.5% 3.7% 4.0% 4.2% 3.9% 4.5%
SERIES: U.S. Economic OutlookSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
U.S. HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK
2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015p 2016f
Existing Home Sales (000s) 4,190 4,260 4,660 5,090 4,940 5,292 5,471
% Change -3.5% 1.7% 9.4% 9.2% -2.9% 7.1% 3.4%
Median Price ($000s) $172.9 $166.1 $176.8 $197.1 $208.3 $221.4 $231.0
% Change 0.2% -3.9% 6.4% 11.5% 5.7% 6.3% 4.3%
SERIES: U.S. Existing home sales of single-family homes and condo/coopsSOURCE: NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
CALIFORNIA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015p2016f
Nonfarm Job Growth -1.1% 1.1% 2.4% 3.0% 2.2% 2.8% 2.3%
Unemployment Rate 12.3% 11.8% 10.4% 8.9% 7.5% 6.3% 5.5%
Population Growth 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9% 0.9%Real Disposable Income, % Change 0.9% 3.4% 4.7% 0.2% 3.0% 4.3% 4.5%
SERIES: CA Economic OutlookSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK
MEMBERSHIP FOLLOWS SALES WITH 1-2 YEAR LAG
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
p
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
2015p: 181,000
2016f: 183,000
Home Sales MembershipUnits of Home Sold # of Members
2015 SALES DID NOT DISAPPOINT
California, Aug 2015 Sales: 431,800 Units, +7.4% YTD, +9.3% YTY
Jan-
05
Jul-0
5
Jan-
06
Jul-0
6
Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Jan-
08
Jul-0
8
Jan-
09
Jul-0
9
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5 -
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
*Sales are seasonally adjusted and annualized SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Aug-15:
431,800
Aug-14:
395,080
CA SALES RE-GAINED MOMENTUM IN 2015
SERIES: Sales of Existing Single Family Homes, Seasonally Adjusted SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Jan-
10
Apr-1
0
Jul-1
0
Oct-1
0
Jan-
11
Apr-1
1
Jul-1
1
Oct-1
1
Jan-
12
Apr-1
2
Jul-1
2
Oct-1
2
Jan-
13
Apr-1
3
Jul-1
3
Oct-1
3
Jan-
14
Apr-1
4
Jul-1
4
Oct-1
4
Jan-
15
Apr-1
5
Jul-1
5-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Year-over-Year % ChgMoving average (Year-over-Year % Chg)
HOME PRICE GAINS HAVE SLOWED
California, Aug 2015: $493,420, 1.0% MTM, +2.5% YTY
Jan-
05
Jul-0
5
Jan-
06
Jul-0
6
Jan-
07
Jul-0
7
Jan-
08
Jul-0
8
Jan-
09
Jul-0
9
Jan-
10
Jul-1
0
Jan-
11
Jul-1
1
Jan-
12
Jul-1
2
Jan-
13
Jul-1
3
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5 $-
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000 P: May-07$594,530
T: Feb-09$245,230-59% frompeak
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Aug-15: $493,42
0
Aug-14: $481,25
0
Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50% Condo Single-Family Homes
HOME PRICE APPRECIATIONS HAVE MODERATED SINCE MID 2013
SERIES: Sales of SFH and Condo UnitsSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
YTY% Chg. in Price
CALIFORNIA VS. U.S. MEDIAN PRICES
1970-2015
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
$-
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000 California CA Price Trend US
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
• Housing market has recovered – Welcome to the new normal – Low mortgage rates– Job & Income growth are positive
• And yet…– Supply well below long-run average– Share of first-time buyers LOW– Affordability key concern for everyone
• It’s not an easy market/transaction for anyone .
2015 - WHERE ARE WE ?
UNDERWATER MORTGAGESRISING PRICES HAVE REVERSED EQUITY LOSSES
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
7.3%
1.7%
Negative Equity Share in CA Near Negative Equity Share in CA
SERIES: Underwater MortgagesSOURCE: CoreLogic
INVENTORY CONTINUED TO DECLINE FROM LAST YEAR
Aug 2014: 4.0 Months; Aug 2015: 3.6 Months
Note: “Unsold Inventory Index” represents the number of months it would take to sell the remaining inventory for the month in question. The remaining inventory for the month is defined as the number of properties that were “Active”, “Pending”, and “Contingent” (when available) and divide the sum by the number of “Sold” properties for the month in question.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
SERIES: Unsold Inventory Index of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
WHERE IS THE INVENTORY?
– Affordability challenge for repeat buyers• Low rate on current mortgage • Low property taxes• Why list when there is nowhere to go I can
afford?• Could not qualify for a mortgage today
– Foreclosure pipeline is dry – Investors renting instead of flipping– New construction recovering but LOW– Measurement error? Off- MLS (aka “pocket’)
listings not being counted in listing stats– Demographics: Trade-up buyer pool is smaller
FEWER MIDDLE-AGE ADULTS IN RECENT YEARS
Source: Harvard Joint Center of Housing Studies, Census Bureau
DROP IN HOMEOWNERSHIP
Source: Harvard Joint Center of Housing Studies, Census Bureau
DECLINE IN # OF TRADE UP BUYERS DUE TO POPULATION LOSS & DROP IN HOMEOWNERSHIP RATE
Source: Harvard Joint Center of Housing Studies, Census Bureau
REGIONAL HOUSING MARKETS
CA AUG. 2015 MEDIAN PRICES YTY
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
CA 2015 YTD SALES
SERIES: Year to Date Sales of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
$346,180 5% YTY
www.car.org/marketdata
12% YTD 8% YTY
4.6 32.7 95.8%NAUII
Months Days
MTM Price
Per Sq Ft
Sales
To List Ratio
Median PriceSales
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AUG 2015
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AUG. 2015 MEDIAN
PRICES
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA 2015 YTD SALES
SERIES: Year to Date Sales of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
$550,120 15% YTY
6% YTD 14% YTY
3.6 46.1 NANAUII
Months Days
MTM Price
Per Sq Ft
Sales
To List Ratio
www.car.org/marketdata
Median PriceSales
NORTHERN WINE AUG 2015
NORTHERN WINEAUG. 2015 MEDIAN
PRICES
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
NORTHERN WINE2015 YTD SALES
SERIES: Year to Date Sales of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
$804,190 10% YTY
5% YTD 0.2% YTY
2.3 22.3 103.4%
$509UII
Months Days
MTM Price
Per Sq Ft
Sales
To List Ratio
www.car.org/marketdata
Median PriceSales
BAY AREA AUG 2015
BAY AREAAUG. 2015 MEDIAN
PRICES
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
BAY AREA2015 YTD SALES
SERIES: Year to Date Sales of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
$276,900 7% YTY
10% YTD 12% YTY
3.6 24.4 97.3%NAUII
Months Days
MTM Price
Per Sq Ft
Sales
To List Ratio
www.car.org/marketdata
Median PriceSales
CENTRAL VALLEY AUG 2015
CENTRAL VALLEYAUG. 2015 MEDIAN
PRICES
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
CENTRAL VALLEY2015 YTD SALES
SERIES: Year to Date Sales of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
$520,830 4% YTY
www.car.org/marketdata
11% YTD 6% YTY
3.9 29.1 97.7%NAUII
Months Days
MTM Price
Per Sq Ft
Sales
To List Ratio
Median PriceSales
CENTRAL COAST AUG 2015
CENTRAL COASTAUG. 2015 MEDIAN
PRICES
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
CENTRAL COAST2015 YTD SALES
SERIES: Year to Date Sales of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
$464,400 3% YTY
www.car.org/marketdata
9% YTD 7% YTY
3.9 41.9 98.6%NAUII
Months Days
MTM Price
Per Sq Ft
Sales
To List Ratio
Median PriceSales
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AUG 2015
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIAAUG. 2015 MEDIAN
PRICES
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA2015 YTD SALES
SERIES: Year to Date Sales of Existing Detached HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
ANNUAL HOUSING MARKET SURVEY:
2015 FINDINGS
SHARE OF SECOND/ VACATION HOMES HIGHER AFTER TWO YEARS’ OF DECLINE
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
5%
% to Total Sales
SHARE OF INVESTMENT PROPERTIES DROPS TO THE LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 2009
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
13%
% to Total Sales
FIRST-TIME BUYERS FINDING IT HARD TO BUY
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
29.5%
% First-Time Home Buyers Long Run Average
Long Run Average = 38%
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
SHARE OF CASH BUYERS LOWEST SINCE 2009
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
21%
% of All Cash Sales
• Almost one-fourth of buyers paid with all cash
• The share of all cash buyers is the lowest in the last 6 years
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
THE SHARE OF INTERNATIONAL BUYERS LOWEST IN 8 YEARS
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
4%
Q. Was the buyer an international buyer – a person who was a citizen of another country who wished to purchase residential real estate in the U.S.?
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
0 1 2 3 4 5 or more0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
71%
14%
6% 4% 2% 4%
72%
12%6%
3% 2%5%
77%
9%5% 3% 1%
4%
2013
2014
2015
# of Properties Sold to International Buyers in the Last 12 Months
% Who Sold to International Buyers
Q. How many properties have you sold to an international buyer in the last 12 months? SERIES: 2015 Housing Market Survey
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
23% OF CA REALTORS® WORKED WITH AN INTERNATIONAL BUYER IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS
China Mexico South Korea0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
43%
8% 8%
COUNTRY OF INTERNATIONAL BUYER
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
THE MEDIAN DOWN PAYMENT INCHED UP FROM 2014
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000
$90,000
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
$74,500
20%
Median Down Payment % of Down Payment to Price
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Q. What was the amount of downpayment?
MARKET COMPETITION COOLS DOWN AFTER PEAKING IN 2013
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
53% 53%
4.34.0
% with Multiple Offers# of Multiple offers (Average)
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
YEARS OWNED HOME BEFORE SELLING
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
10
All Sellers
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
NET CASH GAIN TO SELLERS HIGHEST SINCE 2007
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$120,000
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Q. What was the net cash gain or net loss to the seller as a result of this sale?
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY:CRISIS BREWING
CALIFORNIA PRICES MORE VOLATILE AND MUCH HIGHER THAN THE NATION
1970-2015
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
$-
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$700,000 California US
The difference between California’s prices and national home prices increasedfrom $10K in 1970 to $255K today
SERIES: Median Price of Existing Single Family HomesSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
2015 Dollar Value
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY PEAKED Q1 2012PRICES V. LOW RATES AND INCOME GROWTH
California vs. U.S. – 1984-2015% OF HOUSEHOLDS THAT CAN BUY A MEDIAN-PRICED HOME
SERIES: Housing Affordability Index of Traditional BuyersSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
56%
30%
71%
57%
CA USAnnual Quarterly
HOUSING AFFORDABILITY IN CA: BY COUNTY
Kings
USA
San B
ernar
dino
Mer
ced
Tulare
Fres
no
Mad
era
Sacra
men
to
Solan
o
Plac
er
Stanisl
aus
River
side
San Jo
aquin CA
Los Angel
es
San Luis
Obispo
Mon
tere
y
Sonom
a
Ventu
ra
San D
iego
Napa
Orange
Santa
Cru
z
Santa
Clara
Alam
eda
Contra
-Cos
ta
Mar
in
Santa
Bar
bara
San M
ateo
San F
rancis
co0
10
20
30
40
50
60
7062
57 56 55 5450 50
47 46 4441 40
37
30 30 28 27 25 25 25 23 21 20 19 18 18 17 1613
10
2015 Q2
SERIES: Housing Affordability IndexSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
% able to purchase median priced home
AFFORDABLE INVENTORY AVAILABLE TO MEDIAN-INCOME HOUSEHOLDS
SOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
67.2%
28.5%
2.1%
2015 Q2
Retail Sales-
persons
Chefs and Head
Cooks
Elemen-tary
School Teachers
Fire-fighters
Police and
Sherriff's Patrol Of-
ficers
Com-puter Pro-
grammers
Regis-tered
Nurses
Software Devel-opers
(Applica-tions)
Min. Inc Required to Buy a
Med. Home
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$27,010
$45,340
$69,990$71,630
$87,520$89,250
$98,400
$119,970
$95,978
HOW WAGES MEASURED AGAINST INCOME REQUIRED TO BUY A HOME
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, C.A.R.
2014 Annual Mean Wage
California
Retail Sales-
persons
Auto. Mechan-
ics
Chefs and Head Cooks
Elemen-tary
School Teachers
Fire-fighters
Computer Pro-
gram-mers
Regis-tered
Nurses
Software Develop-ers (Ap-
plications)
Min. Inc Required to Buy a
Med. Home
$0
$50,000
$100,000
$150,000
$200,000
$250,000
$300,000
$30,340
$52,690$49,230
$70,680$88,390
$97,570
$124,980$118,690
$267,783
HOW WAGES MEASURED AGAINST INCOME REQUIRED TO BUY A HOME
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, C.A.R.
2014 Annual Mean Wage
San Francisco
Retail Sales-
persons
Auto. Mechan-
ics
Chefs and Head Cooks
Elemen-tary
School Teachers
Fire-fighters
Computer Pro-
gram-mers
Regis-tered
Nurses
Software Develop-ers (Ap-
plications)
Min. Inc Required to Buy a
Med. Home
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$26,610
$46,790$50,730
$67,300
$58,520
$75,980
$105,390$103,730
$57,581
HOW WAGES MEASURED AGAINST INCOME REQUIRED TO BUY A HOME
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, C.A.R.
2014 Annual Mean Wage
Sacramento
Retail Sales-
persons
Auto. Mechan-
ics
Chefs and Head Cooks
Elemen-tary
School Teachers
Fire-fighters
Computer Pro-
gram-mers
Regis-tered
Nurses
Software Develop-ers (Ap-
plications)
Min. Inc Required to Buy a
Med. Home
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$26,870
$42,610$44,330
$72,720
$82,830$86,840
$93,180
$103,790
$88,082
HOW WAGES MEASURED AGAINST INCOME REQUIRED TO BUY A HOME
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, C.A.R.
2014 Annual Mean Wage
Los Angeles
CALIFORNIA’S MAJOR METROS ARE LESS AFFORDABLE THAN THE AVERAGE U.S.
METRO
SOURCE: Legislative Analyst’s Office
SHARE OF FIRST-TIME BUYERS REMAINS BELOW LONG-RUN AVERAGE
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
29.5%
% First-Time Home Buyers Long Run Average
Long Run Average = 38%
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
HOMEOWNERSHIP RATES
California Vs. U.S.
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
53.7%
Peak: 60.2%
54.9%
64.5%
Peak: 69.0%
64.8%
CA US
SERIES: Homeownership RatesSOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau
“MISSING” 100,000 UNITS ANNUALLY, AT LEAST
2015p: 98,500 (42,190 sf, 56,310 mf)2016f: 124,600 total units
SERIES: New Housing PermitsSOURCE: Construction Industry Research Board
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
Single Family Multi-Family
Household Growth:
165,000/yr
THE BOOMERS AND THEIR NEXT MOVE
THE BOOMERS AND THEIR NEXT MOVE
BOOMERS – BORN BETWEEN 1946-1964
What is your age?
50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 680%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
Age (Years)
SERIES: 2014 Baby Boomer SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Average: 59
MAJORITY ARE MARRIED
What is your marital status?
Married 56%
Single 26%
Other 18%
SERIES: 2014 Baby Boomer SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
BABY BOOMERS LESS DIVERSE THAN MILLENNIALS
What is your ethnic background?
Cau-casian/ White
Asian African American/
Black
Hispanic/ Latino
Other0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
79%
9%4% 4%
4%
38%
18%
7%
35%
4%
Boomers Millennials
SERIES: 2014 Baby Boomer SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
3/4 BABY BOOMERS ARE HOME OWNERS
What is your current living situation?
Own 75%
Rent 22%
Other 3%
SERIES: 2014 Baby Boomer SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
HOME OWNERSHIP RATE NEARLY 4 TIMES HIGHER AMONG BOOMERS
Baby Boomers
75%
22%
3%
OwnRentOther
Millennials
20%
41%
39%
OwnRentOther
What is your current living situation?
SERIES: 2014 Baby Boomer SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
MOST HAVE EQUITY IN THEIR HOME
Do you have equity in your home?
Yes; 92%
No; 8%
SERIES: 2014 Baby Boomer SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
MOST DON’T PLAN TO USE HOME EQUITY FOR INCOME DURING RETIREMENT
Are you planning on using this equity for income during retirement?
Yes; 23%
No; 77%
SERIES: 2014 Baby Boomer SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
MAJORITY DO NOT PLAN TO SELL HOME WHEN THEY RETIRE
Do you plan to sell your current home when you retire?
Yes; 10%
No; 59%
Don't know/
unsure; 32%
SERIES: 2014 Baby Boomer SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
MAJORITY WON’T SELL BECAUSE THEY LIKE THEIR HOME
Why do you not plan to sell your current home when you retire?
78%
10%
8%5%
I like my homeI cannot afford to buy another retirement homeI plan to give the home to my child(ren)Another reason
SERIES: 2014 Baby Boomer SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
¼ POSTPONED RETIREMENT BECAUSE …
Did you have to postpone your date of retirement due to any of the following?
Death of significant other
Loss of pension
Medical bills
Loss of home
Loss of retirement income
Other
Loss of assets/ income due to 2008 economic recession
Loss of employment
Did not save enough money yet for retirement
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
1%
1%
2%
2%
3%
4%
7%
9%
14%
SERIES: 2014 Baby Boomer SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
> ½ DO NOT FEEL THEY HAVE SAVED ENOUGH MONEY TO RETIRE COMFORTABLY
Do you feel you have saved enough money to retire comfortably?
Yes; 46%No; 54%
SERIES: 2014 Baby Boomer SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
MAJORITY WORRY ABOUT CHILDRENS’ ABILITY TO BECOME HOME OWNERS
Do you worry about your children’s ability to become home owners in the future?
Yes; 55%
No; 45%
SERIES: 2014 Baby Boomer SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
2/5 PLAN TO HELP CHILDREN WITH DOWN PAYMENT
Do you plan to help your children with their down payment to purchase a home?
Yes; 43%No; 57%
SERIES: 2014 Baby Boomer SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
WHAT FINANCIAL DECISION WOULD BOOMERS CHANGE?
If you could change one financial decision that you made within the past 10 years, what would it be?
Moving to the wrong location
Cash out/ open IRA
Carry less debt/ poor credit
Retiring prematurely
Seek better job
Invest in real estate
Better investment decisions
Saving more/ spending less
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
1%
2%
4%
5%
7%
8%
19%
22%
SERIES: 2014 Baby Boomer SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
WHAT KEEPS BOOMERS UP AT NIGHT?
What keeps you up at night?
Economy
World politics
TV/ internet
Health concerns
Insomnia
Ache/ pain
Job security
Work
Family issues
Stress/ anxiety
Bills/ finances
Nothing
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
1%
2%
2%
3%
3%
4%
4%
4%
4%
6%
13%
39%
SERIES: 2014 Baby Boomer SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
CRAFTSMAN BUNGALOW IS DREAM HOME FOR 1/3 HOME OWNERS
Q. Which of the following is your dream home?
32%
craftsman bungalow
19%
neo colonial
14%
dream mansion Frank Lloyd Wright
desert modernism art nouveau/art moderne modern townhome downtown loft
brick urban rowhome
8.5%
12%
5.7% 5.1% 2.6%
1.6%
2/3 HOME OWNERS PREFER A NIGHT IN WITH FAMILY/FRIENDS FOR FUN
Q. In which of the following activities would you like to participate? Select all that apply.
Burning Man
Woodstock in 1969
A "Hangover" weekend in Vegas
A week camping/fishing
A concert with your favorite artist
A fantastic movie
A trip to New York City
A trip to Paris
A quiet night in with friends/family
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
10%
16%
21%
37%
52%
53%
56%
57%
65%
DIVERSITY IN HOMEOWNERSHIP
SHARE OF MINORITY HOME BUYERS HAS GROWN OVER TIME …
Q. What was the race/ethnicity of the head of household buying the property
White/Non-Hispanic
African-American Hispanic Asian0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
68.5%
5.0%
14.1%
7.5%
55.8%
4.2%
19.9%
12.5%
56.3%
3.6%
14.0%16.5%
1995 2005 2015
SERIES: 2015 Housing Market SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
HOUSING DEMAND WILL INCREASE, LARGELY DRIVEN BY MINORITIES
SOURCE: Urban Institute
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2.7 4.6 2.2 2.18.9 11.6
1.3 4.8 1.9 2.59.1 10.4
Projected household growth, 2010-2010
Net new households, millions
23%
46%39%
18%12%
18%19%
100%
100%
88%77%
24%
2010-2020
2010-2020
Californ
ia
Nevada
Wash
ington
Oregon
Arizona
Colorado
Rest of W
est
Illinois
Ohio
Rest of M
idwest
Minnesota
Michigan
DC Region
FloridaTexa
s
Georgia
North Caro
lina
Rest of S
outh
New Jerse
y
New York
Massach
usetts
Connecticu
t
Pennsylvania
Rest of N
ortheast
TOTAL U.S.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%West Midwest South Northeast
Source: Dowell Myers and John Pitkin, “Immigrant Contributions to the Housing Market…” RIHA, Mortgage Bankers Association, 2013
IMMIGRANT SHARE OF GROWTH IN HOME OWNERS
2016 FORECAST
CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK
2010 2011 2012 2013 20142015p2016f
SFH Resales (000s) 416.5 422.6 439.8 414.9 383.3 407.5 433.0
% Change -12.3% 1.4% 4.1% -5.9% -7.6% 6.3% 6.3%
Median Price ($000s) $305.0 $286.0 $319.3 $407.2 $447.0 $476.3 $491.3
% Change 10.9% -6.2% 11.6% 27.5% 9.8% 6.5% 3.2%Housing Affordability Index 48% 53% 51% 36% 30% 31% 27%
30-Yr FRM 4.7% 4.5% 3.7% 4.0% 4.2% 3.9% 4.5%
SERIES: CA Housing Market OutlookSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
SALES UP FOR 2015 AND CONTINUE TO IMPROVE IN 2015; PRICE WILL GROW STEADILY THIS YEAR
AND NEXT
Units (Thousand)
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015p
2016f
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
407,490433,030
Sales of Existing Detached Homes
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015p
2016f
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$476,250 $491,280
Median PricePrice
(Thousand)
SERIES: CA Housing Market OutlookSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
CA: DOLLAR VOLUME UP 13.3% IN 2015, UP 9.6% IN 2016
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015p2016f$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
$301
$244
$164 $133 $131 $127 $121
$140 $169 $171
$194 $213
$ Volume of Sales Percent Change
% Change$ in Billion
-60%
SERIES: CA Housing Market OutlookSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
WILD CARDS
– Stock market volatility– Slower growth: China– Further collapse in
energy/commodity prices – Geo-political tensions– Terrorism– El Nino/Water Shortage – 2016 Presidential election
MARKET OPPORTUNITIES IN 2016
MARKET OPPORTUNITIES
– Millennials• Turn renters into first-time buyers• First-time buyers who bought with tax credit
back in 2009 are ready to trade-up• Understand the differences in needs between
Millennial first-time buyers and Millennial trade-up buyers
– Baby Boomers• Ready to downsize• Understand Boomers’ priorities: investment and
retirement• If we can’t keep them in CA, help them find a
place out of state. Network with REALTORS® outside of CA
MARKET OPPORTUNITIES
– Minorities • Minorities have grown in homebuyer share over
time • Surge in the number of minority households will
play a big role in the increase in housing demand in the next 10 years
• Develop programs and marketing material tailored towards minority home buyers of different ethnicity
– Investor sellers• Investor buyers who purchased bargain
properties a few years ago are ready to sell as home prices start leveling off
– Everyone else…• Low interest rates will be here a little longer
MOST MILLENNIALS UNCERTAIN/DOUBTFUL THAT THEY COULD OBTAIN A MORTGAGE
NOW?AMILLENNIAL ETHNICITY
SOURCE: C.A.R. 2014 Millennial SurveyQ: Could you obtain a mortgage if you applied now ?
Yes 22%
No 33%
Don't know 45%
#TBTC.A.R.110
#TBT…. SACRAMENTO 110 YEARS AGO
730 N Street
#TBT…. SAN FRANCISCO 110 YEARS AGO
500 block of Liberty Street
#TBT…. FRESNO 110 YEARS AGO
Brix Mansion 2844 Fresno St
#TBT…. SUMMER OF LOVE
THANK YOU!
www.car.org/marketdatalesliea@car.org
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This presentation can be found on www.car.org/marketdata
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