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2018MIDTERM ELECTION FORECAST
A PREVIEW OF THE UPCOMING ELECTION FEATURING:
POLITICAL ANALYSIS FROM PRIME POLICY GROUPcharlie black, chairman
r. scott pastrick, president & ceo
POLLING INSIGHT FROM PSB RESEARCHjason boxt, executive vice president
The Political Landscape
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
28,000
30,000
Nov-12
Mar-13
Jul-1
3
Nov-13
Mar-14
Jul-1
4
Nov-14
Mar-15
Jul-1
5
Nov-15
Mar-16
Jul-1
6
Nov-16
Mar-17
Jul-1
7
Nov-17
Mar-18
Jul-1
8
Dow Jones Average
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Nov-12
Mar-13
Jul-1
3
Nov-13
Mar-14
Jul-1
4
Nov-14
Mar-15
Jul-1
5
Nov-15
Mar-16
Jul-1
6
Nov-16
Mar-17
Jul-1
7
Nov-17
Mar-18
Jul-1
8
Unemployment Rate (%)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; Dow Jones Industrial Average; Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index
50
60
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80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Nov-12
Mar-13
Jul-1
3
Nov-13
Mar-14
Jul-1
4
Nov-14
Mar-15
Jul-1
5
Nov-15
Mar-16
Jul-1
6
Nov-16
Mar-17
Jul-1
7
Nov-17
Mar-18
Jul-1
8
Consumer Confidence
The economy just keeps getting better
Source: Gallup “Satisfaction with the United States" 2018
35
62
2018 Jul2018 Jan2017 Jul2017 Jan2016 Aug2016 Feb2015 Aug2015 Feb2014 Sep2014 Mar2013 Sep
Satisfied (%) Dissatisfied (%)
In general, are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way things are going in the United States at this time?
But nearly two-thirds of Americans remain dissatisfied with the way things are going
Republicans care most about jobs and the economy while Democrats care most about healthcare
35
16
22
36 6
3
19
28
6
16
11
3 4
Jobs / Economy Healthcare Immigration Environment Education Terrorism Foreign Policy
Republicans (%) Democrats (%)
Which one of these issues matters MOST to you right now?
Source: Survey Monkey weekly tracking poll among U.S. adults; conducted Sep 27 – Oct 3, 2018
Source: Pew Research Center “The Partisan Divide on Political Values Grows Even Wider”
201720041994Median Democrat
Median Republican
Median Democrat
Median Republican
Median Democrat
Median Republican
Consistently Liberal
Consistently Conservative
Consistently Liberal
Consistently Conservative
Consistently Liberal
Consistently Conservative
The country is as polarized as it has ever been
The Trump Factor
96%
88%
86%
84%
84%
84%
83%
81%
79%
77%
67%
61%
52%
G.W. Bush
Trump
Johnson
Kennedy
Eisenhower
Nixon
G.H.W. Bush
Obama
Reagan
Ford
Clinton
Truman
Carter
Presidential approval within own partyAs of July of the second year
Source: WSJ/NBC News telephone polls most recently of 900 registered voters conducted July 15–18.
Trump is historically popular among Republicans
66 63 6358 58 54
49 46 45 42 40 38
4 8
-5 -8 -12
-48
-15
-54-63
-26
-12
-30
Clinton1998
G.W. Bush2002
Reagan1986
G.H.W. Bush1990
Nixon1970
Ford1974
Carter1978
Clinton1994
Obama2010
Reagan1982
Obama2014
G.W. Bush2006
President’s Midterm Party Losses and Approval Rating
Presidential Job Approval at Midterm (%)
Midterm Election House Seats Gained or Lost by President’s Party (∆)
Source: Gallup, American Presidency Project
Trump: 43%
Weaker approval of a President usually leads to his party losing more House seats
What does this mean for the midterms?
Source: FiveThirtyEight, August 22, 2018
Democrats need 23 seats to retake the House…
…and 2 seats to take the Senate
Where things stand now
Source: FiveThirtyEight Generic Ballot Tracker October 22, 2018; Historical data based on Gallup final poll for midterm elections from 1946 to 2002 and the RealClearPolitics average from 2006 to 2014.
Democrats have maintained a consistent and significant lead on the generic ballot
Generic ballots are good predictors of final results
The generic ballot points to a blue wave
78 8268
80
July 2018 October 2018
Democrat/Lean Democrat (%) Republican/Lean Republican (%)Midterm elections are “very important”
Source: NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist polls, conducted July 19-22 and Oct. 1
+10% +2%
Republicans have closed the enthusiasm gap from the summer
House
Source: 270towin.com “2018 House Elections: Consensus Forecast” October 15, 2018
Fertile ground for Democrats to retake the House
Safe (Democrat)
Likely (Democrat)
Lean (Democrat)
Tossup
Lean (Republican)
Likely (Republican)
Safe (Republican)
LEGEND:
Seats won by party out of White HouseIn midterm elections since 1978
63
52
30
26
23
15
13
8
5
-5
-8
2010
1994
2006
1982
2018
1978
2014
1990
1986
1998
2002
1998
2002
Source: The Washington Post “Can Democrats win back the House in 2018? It’ll be tough.” March 6, 2018
Democrats need to pick up 23 seats to gain back control of the House of Representatives
Tea Party wave
Contract with America
Many of the most competitive races are in Republican-held districts that were won by Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Source: The New York Times To Reclaim the House, Democrats Need to Flip 24 G.O.P. Seats. 25 Are in Clinton Territory. March 26, 2018
Toss up House race
25 Republican seats are in Clinton districts
Source: FiveThirtyEight “Forecasting the Race for the House” October 22, 2018
The best models give Democrats just above a 80% chance of retaking the House of Representatives
Senate
Source: 270towin.com “2018 Senate Elections: Consensus Forecast” October 19, 2018
Safe (Democrat)
Likely (Democrat)
Lean (Democrat)
Tossup
Lean (Republican)
Likely (Republican)
Safe (Republican)
The Senate landscape is great for the GOP
LEGEND:
Source: FiveThirtyEight “Democrats’ Horrible 2018 Senate Map Couldn’t Have Come At A Better Time” May 1, 2018
Senate Election Schedule Democrats in… Republicans in…
Senators up in… Clinton States Trump States Clinton States Trump States
2018 15 10 1 72020 9 3 2 192022 11 1 0 22Total 35 14 3 48
Democrats are defending more seats in red states
Montana
Missouri W. Virginia Florida
IndianaN. Dakota+ 3% +11% +2%
+1% +12% +2%
Can red state Democratic incumbents hang on?
Source: RealClearPolitics Polling Average as of October 22, 2018
Nevada Arizona + 1%+ 2%
Watchlist: Nevada and Arizona are the most likely pick-ups for Democrats
Source: RealClearPolitics Polling Average as of October 22, 2018
Texas Tennessee + 7%+ 7%
Watchlist: If the wave is big enough, even Republicans in traditionally red states could be at risk
Source: RealClearPolitics Polling Average as of October 22, 2018
Source: FiveThirtyEight “Forecasting the Race for the Senate” October 22, 2018
The best models give Republicans an 80% chance of retaining control of the Senate
2018MIDTERM ELECTION FORECAST
A PREVIEW OF THE UPCOMING ELECTION FEATURING:
POLITICAL ANALYSIS FROM PRIME POLICY GROUPcharlie black, chairman
r. scott pastrick, president & ceo
POLLING INSIGHT FROM PSB RESEARCHjason boxt, executive vice president
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