A. M. Kaynia F. Nadim Earthquake-induced landslides Workshop UN-ISDR Pavia, 5-6 April 2011

A. M. KayniaF. Nadim

Earthquake-induced landslides

Workshop UN-ISDR Pavia, 5-6 April 2011

Methodology (HFA2)

• Dilley et al. (2005): Natural Disaster Hotspots – A Global Risk Analysis. Report, International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank and Columbia University.

• UN/ISDR (2009): Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction. Risk and Poverty in a Changing Climate. United Nations, Geneva, Switzerland

• NGI (2009): Risk Assessment and Mitigation Measures for Natural and Conflict Related Hazards in Asia-Pacific. NGI Report 20071600-1

9 5 1 Material

Vulnerability

9

6.6

7.0

1.8

5.0

4.2

9

5 1 Barrier

9 5

1 Height

Use

6 4 3

Methodology

GIS implementation

Application and Advancement

• Global landslide and avalanche hotspots.

• Nepal Hazard and Risk Assessment for the WB

• GAR 2011 Indonesia

• Use of PGA for 475-year event based on most recent seismic hazard study for Indonesia (Irsyam et al., 2010).

• Reclassification of lithological data based on knowledge of local experts: Five versus two in the global analyses for the Global Assessment Report (UN/ISDR, 2009).

• Use of landslide databases for calibration of hazard, exposure and risk (DesInventar, NASA, WestJava Database)

Advancements in GAR 2009

Example: Hazard maps for EQ-induced landslides in Indonesia

Map of exposure to EQ-induced landslides in Indonesia

Future improvements (present gaps)

• Further calibration of models against observed landslides

• Development of vulnerability models in order to compute risk

• More refined seismic hazard data (for example, GEM)

• Prediction tools based on mechanical models (for example, model developed in EU project SAFER)

Mechanical model (SAFER)Application: Campania, Italy – Irpinia EQ 1980

Mechanical model (SAFER)Application: Campania, Italy – Irpinia EQ

Map of earthquake-induced displacements

Other gap: Time perspective

Socio-economic/societal vulnerability: Time perspective