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Vulnerability Assessment
A multi-scale trans-disciplinary vulnerability assessment
Multi-Scale
Acknowledgements
Future Forest Ecosystem Scientific Council
BC Ministries of Environment & Forest Lands and Natural Resource Operations
Bulkley Valley Research Centre Don Morgan BC Ministry of Environment and Bulkley Valley Research Centre Dave Daust Consultant and Bulkley Valley Research Centre Ken Zielke Symmtree Consulting Rick Budhwa Crossroads Consulting and Bulkley Valley Research Centre
Core Project Team
Project Objectives: 1. Forest Management Vulnerability Assessment:
• assess vulnerability of existing forest management regimes (i.e., objectives and strategies for selected ecosystem services) to climate change in the Nadina; • use stakeholder workshops to develop local adaptation policy considering a range of climate change scenario narratives (based on vulnerability); • develop a Multi-scale Vulnerability Assessment Framework to link multiple disciplines and to link local, regional, provincial and national climate change
adaptation policy. 2. Community Adaptive Capacity:
• apply livelihood assessment methods to evaluate linkages among people, resources, the environment and the changing climate, and to map out community assets for adaptation;
• apply integral theory to build community capacity and to understand how climate change and adaptation influence people’s lives.
climate
site conditions (moist. & nutr.)
natural disturbance rate
regeneration & growth rate
tree species maladaptation
timber supply
surviving volume
dead volume
climate
site type (moist. & nutr.)
natural disturbance
plant community
seral stage animal community
species tolerances
succession
other biodiversity
species interactions
climate
peak flow
vegetation cover (ECA)
bed/bank scour
road location, design & maintenance
landslides soil saturation; toe slope integrity
summer low flow
rainfall road scour
sediment
logging
riparian management
warm water input (ditches, logged wet sites)
stream temperature
disturbance
infrastructure
upstream water bodies
Clean water Sustenance lifestyle
Jobs
Local Forest managers and communities
Adaptation
Benefits
Biodiversity
Timber
Hydrology
West Kootenay
Kamloops
Nadina
Canada
BC Climate Impacts
Ecosystem Services Vulnerability
Climate Adaptation
Adaptation Workshop
Scoping Workshop
Forests
Hydrology
Biodiversity
Barrier Importance rating
Lack of provincial-scale concern XXX Lack of knowledge X Lack of planning capacity XX Lack of implementation capacity
(mandate/resources) XXX
Lack of implementation capacity (restrictive legislation and policy)
X to XXX
Key Messages/Recommendations 1) Future climates will directly influence species assemblages, affecting ecosystem function and resilience. 2) Disturbance will increase relative to historic rates, due to disease (5 – 10 X), insects (1.5 – 2 X), fire (1 – 2 X), drought (5 -10% loss of forest area) and extreme weather. 3) Almost every aspect of forest management will be affected by climate change. 4) Adaptation responses fall into two groups: --reduce risks to managed forest by a) limiting anthropogenic stress, b) promoting ecological diversity, c) guiding ecological transformation and d) beefing-up infrastructure --second, increase forest sector capacity by a) increasing monitoring and detection, b) increasing emergency response capacity and c) increasing harvesting/processing diversity and flexibility. 5) Lack of incentive is the largest barrier to adaptation. Regional-scale managers have limited discretion to act, due to legislation, provincial policy and economic imperatives. Companies are unwilling to take steps that increase cost or risk. Only the provincial government can address this significant barrier. 6) Climate change adaptation should not only focus on objective technical-scientific aspects, but also include the subjective human-cultural components of the social-ecological system.
Livelihood Assets Natural
Physical
Social
Financial
Human
Historic Adaptation Assets
Current Asset Inventory
Trans-Disciplinary
Canadian Institute of Sustainable Living
Issue Response (adaptation) Loss of old forest ecosystems and focal habitat • Increased disturbance (warmer mean temperatures
increase pests and fire hazard) • Changing species assemblages (altered microclimate
and soil moisture affects species differently) • Increased invasive species (warmer winters favour
southern species; intense fires and salvage harvesting increase soil disturbance)
• Maintain connected reserves, corridors and focal habitats (redundant reserves; flexibility to move reserves)
• Increase unroaded area • Control invasive species
Potential extirpation of culturally important plants • Changing species assemblages • Reduced seed banks (intense disturbance)
• Avoid harvesting sensitive sites • Create conditions that favour threatened plants
Reduced timber supply • Increased disturbance • Increased growth rate, but likely less than mortality
(longer, warmer growing seasons increase growth, subject to available moisture; increased CO2 increases efficiency of water use and photosynthesis)
• Control insects, disease and fire, where possible • Preferentially harvest susceptible stands • Shorten rotations • Fertilize to reduce harvest age • Regenerate diverse stands that resist insects and
disease
Loss of productive forest landbase • Changing species assemblages • Warmer climate may lead to increased human
habitation
• Avoid harvesting sensitive sites • Partially-cut stands on dry sites • Promote rapid site recovery
Increased plantation failures • Increased disturbance • Changing species assemblages
• Retain downed wood to store moisture • Regenerate diverse stands • Influence successional pathways
Reduced water quality • Increased peak flows, landslides and erosion (more
precipitation fall to spring; more rain-on-snow; more storms; less buffering capacity)
• Limit ECA to 30 to 50% of THLB • Avoid unstable terrain • Design roads to accommodate increased peak flow
and bedload transport
Infrastructure damage • Increased peak flows, landslides and erosion
• As above
Degraded fish habitat • Increasesd scour and sedimentation of spawning
gravel • Reduced summer low flows (warmer summers; less
precipitation; changes in snowpack; human use)
• As above • Limit human water use
Shift of stream ecosystem from perennial to intermittent or ephemeral (affects aquatic community and isolates fish) • Reduced summer low
• Limit human water use • Limit ECA
Possible lethal temperatures for salmonids (low elevation streams) • Increased stream temperature
• Retain riparian cover • Manage warm water sources (e.g., ditches;
deactivated roads) • Avoid harvesting sites with high water tables
Chaotic Transformation
Hail Mary Pollyanna
Oh Frick! 5o
1o
Moderate Climate Change
Rapid Climate Change
Drivers: • Technological
innovation • Participatory
governance • Increase local control • Decline of
corporatization • Economy managed for
change
Drivers: • No new technology • Low democracy • Corporate control • Low global
cooperation • Business as usual
shift to economic survival
• Increase military
Drivers: • Technological
innovation • Democracy • Balance between
local/global • Global agreements • Economy focus on
sustainability
Drivers: • New sequestration
technology • Low democracy • Corporate control • High global
cooperation • Business as usual
Oil drops rapidly (no oil remaining) Oil slow decline (oil remaining)
Scenario Planning
Future
Livelihoods and
community resilience
Vulnerability Context
Responses: • Moderately extreme
ecological degradation • Food shortage, local food
production • Managed climate
migrants • Poverty • Population shifts, some
regions with die-offs
Responses: • Very extreme ecological
degradation • Food shortage, variable
local food, famine • Un-managed random
climate migrants • Extreme poverty, in-
equity • Massive population
decline, disease, climate hazards...
Responses: • Moderate ecological
degradation • Global food system • Few climate migrants • Global inequity and class
inequity • High populations
Responses: • Minor ecological
degradation • Local food production
increases, less global • Few climate migrants • High standard of living,
equitable society • Moderate population
increase Livelihood Assessment
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