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A Review Of
Vulnerability to Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies for India
Presented by
Aditi Dass
Winrock International India
B A S I CB A S I C
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Outline of presentation
Case Study on Drought and Flood in India
•Risks & vulnerabilities
•Adaptation strategies
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States selected on the basis of the level of vulnerability of the states to droughts, floods and cyclones which is a function of damages reported
Villages within the most drought prone districts of Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka selected.
Similarly, a case study in Orissa has been taken up within a flood prone district, which is also susceptible to cyclones.
Case Studies
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37 37
133
156
21
0
30
60
90
120
150
180
ExtremeTemperature
Land slides Wind Storm Flood Drought
No
. of e
ven
ts
0
400
800
1200
1600
To
tal n
o. o
f pe
op
le a
ffect
edno. of events
total affected
Number of people affected due to various extreme events in India
Damages due to extreme events during 1900 - 2004
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Probability of Occurrence of Droughts•A perennial feature
•19% of area affecting 12% of population annually
•Frequency of droughts:
•Tamilnadu, J&K, Telangana, West Rajasthan - every 2.5 years
•Gujarat, E. Rajasthan & W. Uttarpradesh – every 3 years
•Other states - every 4-5 years
•Based on the rainfall deficiency for the last 100 years
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Severe droughts in India in last 100 yearsYear % of country area
affected% of less rainfall over entire India
% of less rainfall over drought region
1918 71 -26 -49
1965 41 -17 -36
1972 47 -25 -35
1979 45 -21 -38
1987 50 -18 -45
After 1987, India experienced severe drought in 2002, where 29% of the area was affected
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1984
1986
1997
2000
2001
2002
Temporal-spatial spread of drought & impacts
Drought is occurring in some or the other part of the country
Primary impacts: water availability, agriculture production, hydropower generation
Secondary Impact: Agricultural GDP dips, increase in commodity prices, livelihood of people dependent on rainfed farming (marginal farmers & farm laborers surviving) affected
Rainfed areas (61%) – most affected
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Damages due to droughts
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1984 1985 1986 1987
dis
tric
ts /
po
pu
lati
on
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
cro
pp
ed a
rea
affe
cted
/ ca
ttle
p
op
.
Number of Districtsaffected
Population affected(lakh)
Cropped Areaaffected (lakh ha)
Cattle populationaffected (lakh)
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Case study analysis: Risks associated with droughts
Depletion in water resources for agriculture and drinking: women walk 1-2 kms to fetch water
Reduction in crop yields and change in cropping pattern Dwindling fodder stock and declining income of farmers
lead to cattle selling; esp. marginal and small farmers who sell at depressed prices
Increased incidences of debt Decline in nutrition and health status: malnutrition strikes
Mahboobnagar in AP (esp. among children and women) whenever drought occurs
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Government policies to combat droughts
Central Arid Zone Research Institute (CAZRI)
Rural Works Programme
Drought Prone Area Programme (DPAP) - labor intensive schemes such as medium and minor irrigation, road construction, soil conservation and afforest action
Dissemination of technologies relating to soil management, water harvesting, improved agronomic practices and drought-resistant crops - CRIDA
Desert Development Programme (DDP)
Integrated Watershed Management Programme – rejuvenate depleted natural resources on watershed basis
National Watershed Program for Rainfed Areas (NWSDPRA) –around 22 mha
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Traditional coping strategies in response to drought
Physical
Household/Community Migration (15-30%) Sale of assets (land, livestock, durable assets) Reduce intake of food and decline in other expenditure Shift from superior to inferior food grain Mixed cropping
State/Government Food distribution system Water supply (tanker, new wells etc) Employment programs
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Social Sharing and cooperation Sacrifice by senior hh members New Community relationships Inter and intra community exchange programs
Economic Borrowing Imports/assistance Diversification in source of income Subsidy/grants Relief works
Traditional coping strategies in response to drought (contd.)
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Modern coping strategies
Farming techniques to retain productivity during droughts Soil & water conservation practices Farm Pond : enables storing runoff water Planting drought resistant varieties: provided by the state
Agriculture Univ. low adaptability of the above Livelihood: Education & skill based diversification of occupation Livestock: ownership pattern changed from few people owning
bigger herd size to almost all hh owning few small animalsGovt. efforts: area–specific development programs initiated for
drought prone areas to mitigate poverty
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Conclusion - drought
Marginal & small farmers and landless hh are most vulnerable to drought
Middle level farmers in AP also fallen prey to recurrent droughts due to: Decline of crop acreage Fall in water table & water harvesting structures Fall in employment & purchasing power Scarcity of food and fodder Lack of change in cropping pattern & lack of drought resistant seeds Inability of farmers to repay loans with continuous droughts
Drought in Rajasthan was effectively managed Dominant strategies in drought prone areas:
Adopting mixed farming system (crop, livestock & agro-forestry) Resources conservation approach Collective sustenance
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1986 1988 2000 2003
Floods in India and its impacts
010
203040
5060
7080
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999Po
pu
lati
on
aff
ecte
d (
millio
ns)
0
5
10
15
20
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
Are
a af
fect
ed (
Mh
a)
2001
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Government expenditure and Damages due to floods
205.0
148.9
130.0
86.0
80.4
79.3
67.7
63.7
39.3
37.8
25.4
20.9
20.4
18.0
17.6
16.6
8.4
4.8
4.3
3.3
2.4
2.3
1.6
1.3
0.7
0.6
0
50
100
150
200
250
Utta
rB
iha
rW
est
Ori
ssa
Ke
rala
Him
ach
al
Assa
mP
un
jab
Ra
jsth
an
Gu
jara
tT
am
ilN
ad
uJa
mm
u &
An
dh
raH
ary
an
aK
arn
atk
aM
ah
rash
tra
Aru
na
ch
al
Me
gh
ala
ya
Ma
dh
ya
Tri
pu
raM
an
ipu
rS
ikkim
Po
nd
ich
err
yD
elh
iM
izo
ram
Na
ga
lan
d
Dam
ages in C
rore
s
(Cro
p+
housein
g_public
utilit
ies)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1974-7
5
1975-7
6
1976-7
71977-7
8
1978-7
9
1979-8
01980-8
1
1981-8
2
1982-8
31983-8
4
1984-8
5
1985-8
61986-8
7
1987-8
81988-8
9
1989-9
0
1990-9
11991-9
2
1992-9
3
1993-9
41994-9
5
1995-9
6
1996-9
71997-9
8
1998-9
9
1999-0
0
Go
vt.
sp
en
din
g o
n i
rrig
ati
on
an
d f
loo
d
co
ntr
ol
(RS
. IN
CR
OR
ES
)
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Impact of floods
Play major role in poverty & vulnerability, esp. of marginalized communities Damage on Infrastructure: health, sanitation, water supply, roads,
educational institutions and opportunities for environment Loss of individual property:
destroy of ‘kachcha’ houses, stored food & hh goods Poor looses assets each time flood occurs Poor have to take loans at high rate of interest for survival
Health: water borne diseases like cholera, dysentery, typhoid & other
gastrointestinal diseases Lack of effective health care system Unavailable & inaccessible due to prohibitive costs Lack of clean drinking water, well water mixes with flood water
Effect on women: loose control over food, fodder, fuel & cattle rearing In post-disaster recovery phases, women suffer the most Can’t get loans against lands because it is never in their names
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Structural measures
Construction of storage dams, reservoirs, embankments, drainage structures as required at suitable locations
•Raising the levels of the roads and constructing houses at higher heights or raising the plinth level of the houses
Non-structural measures
•Flood forecasting & warning. The Central Water Commission (CWC) has a flood forecasting system covering 62 major rivers in 13 States with 157 stations for transmission of flood warnings on real time basis.
•Post-flood activities for rescue, relief and rehabilitation operations.
People’s Participation
Coping with FloodsB A S I C
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Case study : Coping Measures taken by Jagatsinghpur in Orissa (worst flood affected in 2001)
Heights of embankments raised by 3-4 ft Repairing jobs of weak points of embankment was taken
up by govt. Elevated spots “merdha’ were used for immediate shelter
to flood affected people Mud houses which were completely washed away, were
rebuilt at an elevated area Just before onset of monsoon people got ready with dry
food reserve and other essential items Different variety of paddy is sown in flood prone areas
which are not destroyed even if the plant remains under water until 10 days
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Conclusion - flood
3 successive disasters have seriously affected sustainability of livelihoods in Jagatsinghpur Super cyclone 1999 Flood 2001 Flood 2003
Loss of thousands of lives Areas most affected by flood of 2001 and 2003 were
areas affected by cyclone in 1999 Poor disaster preparedness Restoration works have to extend beyond normal time
frame Devastating flood has given opportunity to reflect gaps in
our disaster preparedness methods & mechanisms
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Mainstreaming Climate Change, Vulnerability & Adaptation Concerns
Why
•Climate change has long term effects & impacts may be irreversible
•Long gestation period required for adaptation
•Infrastructure lifetimes are long and are at risk
•Long time scales required for institutional arrangements to be in place for combating impacts of CC
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What do we need to do differently because of the expected adverse impacts of climate change?
Question
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Thank You
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