Ambition, Drivers, Participation

Preview:

Citation preview

Climate Change Expert Group

Ambition

Drivers

Participation

Gregory Briner Climate Justice Dialogue – Mobilising Bold Action

4 April 2013

Drivers

3 Climate Change Expert Group

The world’s population is growing

Source: UN DESA

4 Climate Change Expert Group

Emissions growth is being driven by the rise of the middle class

Source: Gapminder/UNDP

5 Climate Change Expert Group Source: UNDP

Emissions growth is being driven by the rise of the middle class

Source: Gapminder/UNDP

6 Climate Change Expert Group

Source: Gapminder/UNDP

7 Climate Change Expert Group

Source: Gapminder/UNDP

8 Climate Change Expert Group

Source: UNDP

Poverty eradication remains a priority for many developing countries

Source: Gapminder/UNDP

9 Climate Change Expert Group

The world’s population is also getting older

Source: UN DESA

10 Climate Change Expert Group

Participation

10.5%

89.5%

KP CP2 commitment

No KP CP2 commitment

36.6%

41.5%

21.9% Mitigation target

Mitigation action

No pledge

43

48104

Mitigation target

Mitigation action

No pledge

Number of countries

38

157

13.2%

86.8%

KP CP2 commitment

No commitment

Number of countries

13.2%

86.8%

KP CP2 commitment

No KP CP2 commitment

Percentage of world GHG emissions in 2010

36.1%

41.7%

22.2% Mitigation target

Mitigation action

No pledge

11

Percentage of world GHG emissions in 2010

Percentage of projected world GHG emissions in

202012

Percentage of projected world GHG emissions in

2020

Country participation: Kyoto vs. 2020 pledges

10.5%

89.5%

KP CP2 commitment

No KP CP2 commitment

36.6%

41.5%

21.9% Mitigation target

Mitigation action

No pledge

43

48104

Mitigation target

Mitigation action

No pledge

Number of countries

38

157

13.2%

86.8%

KP CP2 commitment

No commitment

Number of countries

13.2%

86.8%

KP CP2 commitment

No KP CP2 commitment

Percentage of world GHG emissions in 2010

36.1%

41.7%

22.2% Mitigation target

Mitigation action

No pledge

11

Percentage of world GHG emissions in 2010

Percentage of projected world GHG emissions in

202012

Percentage of projected world GHG emissions in

2020

10.5%

89.5%

KP CP2 commitment

No KP CP2 commitment

36.6%

41.5%

21.9% Mitigation target

Mitigation action

No pledge

43

48104

Mitigation target

Mitigation action

No pledge

Number of countries

38

157

13.2%

86.8%

KP CP2 commitment

No commitment

Number of countries

13.2%

86.8%

KP CP2 commitment

No KP CP2 commitment

Percentage of world GHG emissions in 2010

36.1%

41.7%

22.2% Mitigation target

Mitigation action

No pledge

11

Percentage of world GHG emissions in 2010

Percentage of projected world GHG emissions in

202012

Percentage of projected world GHG emissions in

2020

10.5%

89.5%

KP CP2 commitment

No KP CP2 commitment

36.6%

41.5%

21.9% Mitigation target

Mitigation action

No pledge

43

48104

Mitigation target

Mitigation action

No pledge

Number of countries

38

157

13.2%

86.8%

KP CP2 commitment

No commitment

Number of countries

13.2%

86.8%

KP CP2 commitment

No KP CP2 commitment

Percentage of world GHG emissions in 2010

36.1%

41.7%

22.2% Mitigation target

Mitigation action

No pledge

11

Percentage of world GHG emissions in 2010

Percentage of projected world GHG emissions in

202012

Percentage of projected world GHG emissions in

2020

Possible incentives for participation

Co-benefits, e.g. air quality, energy access,

health benefits, biodiversity protection

An agreement that enables countries to pursue economic growth and reduce poverty

Access to financial support, technology and capacity building

Access to market mechanisms

The private sector and civil society also need to participate

Source: UNFCCC

14 Climate Change Expert Group

Ambition EuropeAidIn Conclusion…..

15 Climate Change Expert Group

Possible links between participation and ambition in the post-2020 agreement

Possible components of ambition: headline numbers, scope, period of application, accounting framework

Provisions for mitigation and other aspects of the post-2020 agreement could be ramped up over time

Widespread participation could reduce emissions leakage and competitiveness concerns

Countries willing to take the lead could demonstrate the benefits of a transition to a low carbon economy

16 Climate Change Expert Group

Bali Action Plan agreed

Kyoto Protocol signed

UNFCCC signed

Stockholm Conference, Brundtland Report

17 Climate Change Expert Group

Thank you

Gregory Briner

gregory.briner@oecd.org www.oecd.org/env/cc/ccxg