View
218
Download
2
Category
Tags:
Preview:
Citation preview
An analysis of recent financial events through the lens of the Canadian System
of National Accounts − Financial and Wealth Accounts
November 3, 2009
Allan Tomas, Chief, Financial and Wealth Accounts
23-04-21Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada2
Fundamental shifts in saving behaviour and net lending positions among sectors in the Canadian economy
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
-18-16-14-12-10-8-6-4-202468101214
Persons and unincorporated businesses Percent of GDP
Persons and unincorporated business
Surplus
Deficit
billions of dollars percent of GDP
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
-8-6-4-2024681012
Corporations and government business Percent of GDP
Corporations and government business
Surplus
Deficit
billions of dollars percent of GDP
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
-18-16-14-12-10-8-6-4-202468101214
Government Percent of GDP
Government
Surplus
Deficit
billions of dollars percent of GDP
Th
e settin
g
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4-2
0
2
4
6
8
Non-residents Percent of GDP
Non-residents
Surplus
Deficit
billions of dollars percent of GDP
23-04-21Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada3
Shift in total debt from governments and corporations to the household sector
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Persons and unincorporated businesses sector (PUIB) Federal government sector
Other government sector Non-financial private corporations sector
debt / GDP (%)
Th
e settin
g
23-04-21Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada4
Economy increasingly wealth-driven, with growth in the value of assets, specifically in the household sector
Th
e settin
g
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
1990q1-1998q3 1998q4-2002q3 2002q4-2009q2
Cumulative change in PUIB net worth (excluding savings)
Cumulative PUIB net savings
billions of dollars
23-04-21Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada5
Securitization market for mortgages on the rise in Canada
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Canada United States
Securitized mortgages as a % of total mortgages
Th
e settin
g
23-04-21Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada6
Mortgage market more conservative in Canada
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Canada United States
Personal sector mortgage debt as a % of nominal GDP
Th
e settin
g
23-04-21Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada7
Household sector exposed to increasing interest rates given current debt levels
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
DSR Debt to personal disposable income
debt service ratio (%) debt to disposable income ratio (%)
Ris
k fa
ctors
23-04-21Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada8
Household sector portfolio takes on more risk
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Deposits and fixed income assets of PUIB
Pension and segregated fund assets of PUIB
Equity and foreign investment assets of PUIB
ratio
Ris
k fa
ctors
23-04-21Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada9
Increased international integration of financial markets - Canadians' exposure increased - Foreign Property Rule
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Debt securities Stocks
billions of dollars
FPR 12% - 18% 25% - 30%20% No restriction
Note: Reverse of Balance of Payments signs.
Ris
k fa
ctors
23-04-21Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada10
IMPACT: Canadian institutional investors reduce foreign short-term debt in rapid response to global credit concerns (August 2007); foreign bonds follow suit in subsequent quarters
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
Government Corporate financial Corporate non-financial
billions of dollars
Note: Reverse of Balance of Payments signs.
2005 2008 2007 2006 2009
Re
cen
t finan
cia
l eve
nts
23-04-21Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada11
IMPACT: Immediate, marked and sustained change in Canadian institutional investors’ foreign portfolio investment at the outset of credit concerns
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
Debt securities Stocks
billions of dollars
Note: Reverse of Balance of Payments signs.
2005 2008 2007 2006 2009
Re
cen
t finan
cia
l eve
nts
23-04-21Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada12
IMPACT: The cross-border repurchase agreements market also grinds to a halt in 2007
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
Total liabilities, repurchase agreements
billions of dollars
2008 2007 2006 2009
Re
cen
t finan
cia
l eve
nts
23-04-21Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada13
IMPACT: In Canada, the asset-backed securities short-term paper market shuts down beginning mid-2007
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
Other short-term paper liabilities, Issuers of asset-backed securities (flows)
billions of dollars
2008 2007 2006 2005 2009 2004
Re
cen
t finan
cia
l eve
nts
23-04-21Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada14
The policy reaction: liquidity injection
Financial Inst
+56 T-bills
-50 mortg +32 repos
Fed GOV’T
+22 deposits,
+46 T-bills
Bank of Canada
+32 repos +22 deposits
ABS CMHC
+50 mortg
+50 bonds
+24 bonds
+24 claims
+26 bonds
Re
actio
n
+24 claims
-10 T-bills
23-04-21Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada15
Reaction: T-Bills are mostly purchased by chartered banks
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2008Q4
Chartered banks
Non-residents
Trusteed pension plans
Mutual funds
Bank of Canada
billions of dollars
Re
actio
n
23-04-21Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada16
Reaction: Substantial new short-term borrowing by the federal government in 08q4; initially, no change in government net debt
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
440
460
480
500
520
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Federal government - Credit market debt outstanding
billions of dollars
Re
actio
n
23-04-21Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada17
Reaction: Credit crunch in Canada?...evidence for non-financial corporations…supply or demand?
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
I II III IV I II III IV I II
Bank loans Other canadian bonds Shares
billions of dollars (flows)
2008 2007 2009
Re
actio
n
23-04-21Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada18
Canadian economy slows from 2007 and then contracts
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
Gross domestic product at market prices Final domestic demand
quarterly % change, chained (2002) dollars
2005 2008 2007 2006 2009
Re
su
lts
23-04-21Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada19
Canadian investors repatriated funds from international markets for the first time in 30 years
-20
0
20
40
60
80
1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
billions of dollars
Note: Reverse of Balance of Payments signs.
Re
su
lts
23-04-21Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada20
Canada and US stock markets slide
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
S&P TSX Composite index
S&P 500 US index
S&P TSX Composite index S&P 500 US index
Re
su
lts
23-04-21Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada21
Household sector capital losses: Canada and United States
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
Canada United States
Household sector assets % change
2005 2008 2007 2006 2009
Re
su
lts
23-04-21Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada22
Point of Access – www.statcan.gc.ca
The Daily CANSIM National Economic
Accounts Module on: www.statcan.gc.ca
NBSA, FFA and BOP workshops
Consultation with Statistics Canada analysts
iead-info-dcrd@statcan.gc.ca
infobalance@statcan.gc.ca Ad-hoc analysis and data
requests Canadian Economic
Accounts Quarterly Review (CEAQR)
23-04-21Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada23
Release Dates – Financial Flow Accounts
Financial Flow data are available approximately 60 days after the reference period.
Release date Reference period
01-Dec-09 First quarter 2009 – Third quarter 2009
02-Mar-10 First quarter 2009 – Fourth quarter 2009
01-Jun-10 First quarter 2006 – First quarter 2010
01-Sep-10 First quarter 2010 – Second quarter 2010
01-Dec-10 First quarter 2010 – Third quarter 2010
02-Mar-11 First quarter 2010 – Fourth quarter 2010
Financial flow accounts 13-014-x and 13-010-x
23-04-21Statistics Canada • Statistique Canada24
2009 Release Dates – National Balance Sheet Accounts
National Balance Sheet Account data are available approximately 75 days after the reference period.
Release date Reference period
14-Dec-09 First quarter 2009 – Third quarter 2009
15-Mar-10 First quarter 2009 – Fourth quarter 2009
21-Jun-10 First quarter 2006 – First quarter 2010
13-Sep-10 First quarter 2010 – Second quarter 2010
13-Dec-10 First quarter 2010 – Third quarter 2010
14-Mar-11 First quarter 2010 – Fourth quarter 2010
National balance sheet accounts 13-214-x and 13-010-x
Recommended