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Magnus Karlström | Swedish Electromobility Centre 1
Can fuel cells become a mass produced option globally for heavy duty trucks 2030+?
An exploratory study
Magnus Karlström, Elna Holmberg, Anders Grauers, Hans Pohl (RISE)
Swedish Electromobility Centre
Elna Holmberg | Swedish Electromobility Centre 2
…a national Centre of Excellence for research
and development of electric and hybrid vehicles and charging infrastructure. It is an arena where
Sweden’s automotive industry, universities and government agencies meet and collaborate to
generate
new technology, insights and competence for the future.
Swedish Electromobility Centre is…
System studies and methods Energy storageElectrical machines and drives Vehicle analysis Fuel cells
Magnus Karlström | Swedish Electromobility Centre 3
Part 2
A qualitative assessment of other factors
influencing the outcome
Part 1
Total Cost of Ownership study
Compare FCV, BEV, ICE, ERS (Electric Road Systems)
Year: 2030+
Main case Germany, long haul
But also Regional, City distributionAnd India, USA, China
Magnus Karlström | Swedish Electromobility Centre 4
Description of TCO study
Exploratory
Simplified (for example no lifetime issues with fuel cells, batteries and hydrogen storage)
Data based on publicly available literature
Discussed with stakeholders
Ownership cost of first owner of Heavy Duty Truck
Magnus Karlström | Swedish Electromobility Centre 5
Preliminary Result TCO Germany Long Haul (€)
7 years, Germany, Long Haul, 500 km between refueling, 130 000 km/yearDiesel: 0,15 €/kWh, Elec.: 0,22 €/kWh H2: 0,20 €/kWhFuel cell: 51 €/kW Battery: 150 €/kWh
Elna Holmberg | Swedish Electromobility Centre 6
Additional trucks for a specified transport task caused by lost load capacity to fuel/energy storage
Diesel
Hydrogen/battery
Long haul used factor: Hydrogen = 1,03 Battery (BEV) = 1,09
Magnus Karlström | Swedish Electromobility Centre 7
Preliminary German Niches for Long Haul (ERS not included)
Diagram on next slide
Long haul
Difference from excel model:
• No interest rate
• Not include ”less function”
• 200 €/kWh
Magnus Karlström | Swedish Electromobility Centre 8
Preliminary Result TCO Germany Regional (€)
7 years, Germany, Regional delivery, 300 km between refueling, 60 000 km/yearDiesel: 0,15 €/kWh, Elec.: 0,22 €/kWh H2: 0,20 €/kWhFuel cell: 51 €/kW Battery: 150 €/kWh
Magnus Karlström | Swedish Electromobility Centre 9
Preliminary German Niches for Regional Delivery (ERS not included)
Diagram on next slideRegional delivery
Difference from excel model:
• No interest rate
• Not include ”less function”
Magnus Karlström | Swedish Electromobility Centre 10
Preliminary results TCO Germany City (€)
7 years, Germany, City Distribution, 200 km between refueling, 40 000 km/yearDiesel: 0,15 €/kWh, Elec.: 0,22 €/kWh H2: 0,20 €/kWhFuel cell: 51 €/kW Battery: 150 €/kWh
Magnus Karlström | Swedish Electromobility Centre 11
Preliminary German Niches for City Distribution Germany (ERS not included)
Diagram on next slideCity distribution
Difference from excel model:
• No interest rate
• Not include ”less function”
• Battery 200 €/kWh
Magnus Karlström | Swedish Electromobility Centre 12
Preliminary Result TCO USA Long Haul (€)
7 years, USA, Long Haul, 500 km between refueling, 160 000 km/yearDiesel: 0,11 €/kWh, Elec.: 0,12 €/kWh H2: 0,16 €/kWhFuel cell: 51 €/kW Battery: 150 €/kWh
Magnus Karlström | Swedish Electromobility Centre 13
Tesla Semi Case USA (150 000 USD + 7 Cent/kWH)
No change of ICE FC and ERS
Magnus Karlström | Swedish Electromobility Centre 14
Preliminary conclusion one: Factors with high total cost impact
Low total cost impact High total cost impact
High uncertainty Cost of fuel cell systemCost of hydrogen storageCost of electric machine
Cost of hydrogen, electricity, dieselResidual value of BEV, FCVLess transport efficiencyKm between refuellingBattery life lengthCost of Battery
Low uncertainty Not Listed Total mileageCost of HEV powertrainPowertrain efficienciesMaintenance costs
Magnus Karlström | Swedish Electromobility Centre 15
Preliminary conclusion two
€/km for different fuels much more importantthan powertrain costs, such as fuel cell cost
Magnus Karlström | Swedish Electromobility Centre 16
Preliminary conclusion three
TCO consequencesIf less tkm or m3km
becauseof extra weight/volume of battery/hydrogen storage
Magnus Karlström | Swedish Electromobility Centre 17
Preliminary conclusion four
City and regional better (TCO) for FCV than long haulcompared with ICE
However, ERS even better
Elna Holmberg | Swedish Electromobility Centre 18
WELCOME TO CONTACT US
Elna Holmberg, director
elna.holmberg@emobilitycentre.se
Offert
Magnus Karlström | Swedish Electromobility Centre 19
Why do we get these results for City distribution?
▪Even lower Efficiency of diesel engine lead to much higher fuel cost than for FCEV.
▪Even smaller battery make it possible to pay back the battery investment. (However, only close to end of life!)
City distribution
Magnus Karlström | Swedish Electromobility Centre 20
Economic risk ? – Example from regional delivery
▪ BEV cost is higher than FCEV all the first 500’000 km, only the last 100’000 km there is a small profit.
▪ Changed conditions the first 500’000 km risk to give a loss.
▪ The potential loss is bigger than the potential gain. ⇒ Not a reasonable risk?
▪ Can battery leasing be a solution?
Regional delivery
Maximum profitRisk for loss
Magnus Karlström | Swedish Electromobility Centre 21
ERS road cost per kWh
Typical for major Swedish roads
Truck traffic density for some big German Autobahn
Cost used in TCO analysis
Magnus Karlström | Swedish Electromobility Centre 22
Electric Road System
▪ Should be possible with catenary lines on only 33% of the road
▪ Gradients are positive – can reduce the percentage of catenary
▪ Catenary in uphill gradients give several advantages:
• Lower vehicle speed give more time to charge/km-catenary
• High energy consumption increase the power take from the catenary
• Higher portion of power goes directly to the wheel without passing the battery
▪ Reasonable with its own supply line parallel to the road
▪ Traffic density (both directions) is between 400-2000 Trucks per day on major Swedish roads. How many of these are likely to use an ERS?
Magnus Karlström | Swedish Electromobility Centre 23
ERS cost per km road – one lane
Typical for Swedish major roads
Räkna utnyttjandegrad för olika trafiktätheter
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