Analysis of the C-10 Research and Education Foundation Dataset

Analysis of the C-10 Research and Education Foundation

Dataset

Presented by Norman ShippeePlymouth State University

Advisor: Dr. Samuel T.K. Miller

Overview I. About C-10 II. History of C-10 III. Monitoring Network IV. The Dataset VI. Data Analysis VII. Results and Discussion VIII. References and

Acknowledgements

About C-10 Established in 1991

Non-profit organization

Mission is to monitor potential radiological emissions from the Seabrook nuclear reactor in southeastern New Hampshire

About C-10 Operates and maintains the Citizens

Radiological Monitoring Network (CRMN)

Partially funded by State of Massachusetts

25 automated monitoring stations, mounted on homes, schools, and businesses

About C-10 Stations record temperature, wind, and

radiological data once per minute

Average horizontal spacing is consistent with a small meso-γ (2 – 20 km) or a large microscale (< 2 km) network

The CRMN

NH

MA

10KM

Seabrook Station

The CRMN Dataset The dataset consists of minute-by-

minute observations of:› Ionizing radiation (two channels)› Wind (direction and speed)› Air temperature

Data set length: July 1996 – Jan 2007› Average Data set length: 7 years

The CRMN Dataset Average file contains 3.15 million lines

of data

The length of the dataset allows for detection of very small variations with 95 percent confidence

Problems encountered The C-10/REF dataset is very large

(total of ~2.5 GB for all .txt files)

Impossible to read entire unified files into computer memory

Necessary to use creative programming to better utilize memory (e.g. reading and writing simultaneously)

Analysis and Results Main Goal of Research

› To subject the meteorological and radiological data recorded by C-10’s Citizens Radiological Monitoring Network to rigorous scientific analysis

Filtering Missing Data Flags

Results First, completing spectral analysis of

the station data sets for the radiation allowed us to look for certain patterns in the data› Yearly cycle› Longer period cycles› Shorter period cycles

Yearly Cycle

Short period cycle

Station 01 Spectral Analysis

Spectral Analysis Here we see a yearly peak outlined in the

previous figures of radiation spectra. This is most visible in the analysis of linear scaling

We also see a smaller peak in the radiation continuum around the value of 11.5 hours. This peak shows up in the data set in multiple stations

Looking for possible solutions, we tried to compare with the U and V component of the wind for a possible 11.5 hr cycle

Comparison of Spectral Analysis

Radiation

V ComponentU Component

Spectral Analysis As the short period peak could be seen

in the U and V components of the wind, we decided to attempt to find the direction of the wind that had the most correlation with radiation values

U and V component were then converted into directions from 010 to 360

Correlation of Wind and Radiation

Wind in U and V components was broken into 10 degree increments about the compass

These increments were then cross-correlated with the radiation data

Correlation of 0.2% is statistically significant

The CRMN

NH

MA

10KM

Correlation of Wind and Radiation

Following figures depict the correlation series of the wind around the compass

Direction of maximum correlation is consistent with the direction that the wind is blowing towards

Stations and Maximum Correlations

Station Number Wind Direction Maximum Correlation

04 340° 11.4%

09 100° 12.8%

24 120° 9.23%

28 100° 3.24%

Correlation of 0.2% is statistically significant

Correlations with Time Lags Stations 24 and 09 showed maximum

positive correlations with winds from the WNW and W respectively

Time lag analysis shows that a time lag of -11 hours for station 24 and -5 hours for station 09

This means that the radiation leads the wind, or highest levels of radiation occur before the wind from the specified direction

Correlations with Time Lags Stations 28 and 04 showed maximum

positive correlations with winds from the W and SSE respectively

Time lag analysis shows that a time lag of +11 hours for both stations 28 and 04

This means that the radiation follows the wind, or highest levels of radiation occur after the wind from the specified direction

Positive Lags(Radiation

Follows Wind)

Negative Lags(Radiation

Leads Wind)

Predicted Results

Summary Spectral analysis shows recurring peaks in the

radiation and wind data at yearly and about 12 hour intervals

Correlations of radiation and wind data show a clockwise turning of the wind vectors with maximum correlations from west to east

Time lags seem to be positive to the more inland stations and negative for the coastal stations

References and Acknowledgements

Dr. Samuel T.K. Miller, Research Advisor

Ms. Sandra Gavutis, Executive Director of C-10

Plymouth State University JGMI

Matthew Bedard