Analytical tools: South Africa and MAPS experiences

Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios

Analytical tools: South Africa and MAPS experiencesLEDS Collaboration in Action WorkshopLondon, 21-23 March 2012

Marta TorresEnergy Research Centre, University of Cape

Town (SA)MAPS Research Coordinator

Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios

The LTMS story• Experience of South African Government mandated Long Term

Mitigation Scenarios (2005-2008)

• Stakeholder-driven approach, reliance on scenarios, rigour of research and modelling

• Provide a robust evidence base that enable South African President to put forward a pledge in Copenhagen, for emissions to 'peak, plateau and decline'

• Informs domestic policy, completed in 2011

• Internationally recognized as world-class best practice

Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios

LTMS Analytics

0

150

300

R 102

Electric vehicles with nuclear, renewables

0

150

300

R 92

Renewables, extended

0

150

300

R 125

Subsidy for renewables

0

150

300

R 20

Nuclear, extended

0

150

300

-R 34

Industrial efficiency

0

150

300

R 18

Nuclear

0

150

300

R 52

Renewables

0

25

50

R 72

CCS 20 Mt

0

25

50

R 697

Biofuel subsidy

0

25

50

R 1,987

Hybrids

0

25

50

-R 5

Cleaner coal

0

25

50

-R 1,131

Passenger modal shift

0

25

50

R 524

Biofuels

0

25

50

-R 208

SWH subsidy

0

150

300

-R 269

Improved vehicle efficiency

0

25

50

R 607

Electric vehicles in GWC grid

0

25

50

-R 198

Residential efficiency

0

25

50

-R 203

Commercial efficiency

All Medium Wedges

0

150

300 All Small Wedges

0

25

50

0

5

10

R 50

Enteric fermentation

0

5

10

-R 19

Manure management

0

5

10

R 24

Reduced tillage

0

25

50

R 14

Waste management

0

25

50

-R 15

Fire control

0

5

10

R 39

Afforestation

0

5

10R 346

Coal mine methane

0

5

10R 476

Synfuels CCS 2 Mt

0

5

10R 8

Synfuels methane

0

5

10R 0

Aluminium

0

25

50

R 105

Synfuels CCS 23 Mt

0

150

300

450

600

R 42

Escalating CO2 tax

0

150

300Renewables with learning,

extended

R3

0

5

10

-R 4,404

Limit less eff

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2003

2007

2011

2015

2019

2023

2027

2031

2035

2039

2043

2047

Ran

ds p

er

ton

Other Coal

Other Coal

Existing elec

SasolNew elec

Existing elec

New elec

Sasol

Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios

• Collaboration amongst developing countries: contribute to common body of knowledge

• Government mandated country-wide assessments to explore pathways to a climate compatible economy

• Establish evidence base for long term transition to robust economies: carbon efficient & climate resilient

• Contribute to ambitious climate change mitigation that aligns economic development with poverty alleviation

MAPS: Mitigation Action Plans & Scenarios

Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios

MAPS Analytics

Discussion/Assessment of development Paths, before

mitigation interventions

Assessment of Mitigation Actions

Discussion/Assessment of development paths, after mitigation interventions

ExploringApproaches to mapping drivers:• IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios

(SRES)Modelling approaches• Optimisation/Simulation• Sectoral models: LEAP, MARKAL, MESSAGE,

IMACLIM, GLUE, IFSM, EXACT, asmGHG …• System dynamics• Economy-wide modelingMore analytical tools• Multi-criteria Analysis• Action Impact Matrix (AIM)

…

Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios

Tools, part of many other considerations

Tools&Analysis

Management Information

DecisionRaw data

Ability to answer to key policy questions

Tools

Raw data

…

National context

Legitimacy

Consistency

Evidence Decision

Process design, including a research methodology for

a specific team

Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios

Learnings

Critical question: are your tools able to provide credible and legitimate results that have high utility value for policy-makers?

INSIGHTS

• Country-driven, non-prescriptive methodology, ownership

• No right or wrong tools• Different tools,

different answers• No single model fits

everyone/everything• Best available data

CHALLENGES

• Mitigation in the context of development

• Robust modeling across sectors and economy-wide analysis, in a time-constrained period

• International negotiations context and country-positions

ENABLERS

• Robust dataset thanks to stakeholder involvement

• Scenario-driven approaches

• High-level mandate• Local experts using

world-class methods

Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios

Main MAPS research work areas

• Socio-economic and environmental implications• Sectoral modeling• Mitigation Action country studies• Equity• Linking• Methodologies (and models): pros, cons,

implications• Policy: context, institutionalization complexes,

implementation• Planning• NAMA/LCDS interface• Mitigation and Poverty: micro and macro• Regional modeling

COLLABORATION

• Discuss, learn, exchange among equals

• Avoid mistakes from other processes/countries

MORE CHALLENGES

• From evidence, to planning and to implementation, … and back to evidence

• Reference case• Unknown technologies and

human behavior patterns• …

Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios

Conclusions• Are tools a bottleneck? A large number of developing and

developed countries currently building plans and scenarios• Tools accessibility important, but not necessarily key to make a

change at country-level. Invest in the people, they will make a transformational change

• Process and research need to work together• Main question for South Africa and MAPS countries is: can

mitigation play a role in achieving socio-economic development goals, and how? --> Linking of GHG sectoral and economy-wide models is crucial for us

• Be able to get consensus, convince your policy-makers: use best research for a credible, legitimate and relevant evidence base

Mitigation Action Plan and Scenarios

Thank you!

For more information:MAPS - www.mapsprogramme.org

Marta Torres GunfausMarta.torresgunfaus@uct.ac.za

Energy Research Center, University of Cape Town