View
34
Download
1
Category
Tags:
Preview:
DESCRIPTION
APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook and New and Renewable Energy. 26 th Meeting of APEC New and Renewable Energy Technologies Expert Group Meeting 3-4 April 2006 Yonghun JUNG Vice President Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre. Outline. Regional Grouping Key Factors in the APERC Outlook - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook and New and Renewable
Energy26th Meeting of APEC New and Renewable Energy Technologies Expert Group Meeting
3-4 April 2006
Yonghun JUNGVice President
Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre
Outline Regional Grouping Key Factors in the APERC Outlook Drivers Final Energy Demand Primary Energy Demand Oil Import Dependency Electricity Generation Investment Requirements for the Energy
Sector Environment Implications
Regional Grouping
Russia
JapanKorea
Chinese Taipei
Philippines
USA
Mexico
Canada
Chile
Peru
New Zealand
Australia
China
IndonesiaMalaysia
Singapore
Thailand
Viet Nam
Papua New Guinea
Brunei Darussalam
Hong Kong, China
North America
Oceania
Latin America
Northeast Asia
Southeast Asia
Key Factors in the APERC Outlook
Income growth and change in life style Urbanisation Pursuit for comfort and convenience
Growing number of electric appliances (Residential), escalating number of passenger vehicle (Transport), and surge in PC use (Commercial)
Industrialisation of the developing economies China’s robust growth for iron and steel, petrochemical, cement
industries and its repercussion to the global economy. Asian economies to develop automobile industries.
China, Indonesia, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand Rising energy security concern Water availability and power demands Integration of regional energy markets into global market Technology development
Drivers for the APEC Energy Demand
Income Growth GDP per capita will grow at an
annual rate of 3.5 percent.
Urbanisation By 2030, share of urban
population will reach 68 percent of the total from 52 percent in 2003.
26 million people per year will move from rural to urban cities.
Industrialisation Industry value added will grow by
4.8 percent per year, while GDP will grow by 4.1 percent per year.
(Source) Blackwell (2005)
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
N.
Am
eri
ca
L.
Am
eri
ca
NE
Asia
SE
Asia
Ocean
ia
Ch
ina
Ru
ssia
OE
CD
Eu
rop
e
No
n-O
EC
D E
uro
pe
CIS
/FS
U
Mid
dle
East
Afr
ica
Oth
ers
Th
ou
san
d B
arr
els
per
Day
APEC
APEC economies accounted for 90
percent of the world’s increment of oil
demand (2000-2004).
Growth of Oil Demand (2000-2004)
Income Growth and Fast Pace of Motorisation (1980-2030)
1
10
100
1000
100 1000 10000 100000
Income (USD, 2001 Price)
Pas
sen
ger
Veh
icle
Ow
ner
ship
per
1,0
00P
op
ula
tio
n
AUS CHL CDA PRC INA ROK JPNMAS NZ MEX PE PNG SIN RPRUS USA THA CT
AUS USA
NZ CDAJPN
PRC
PE
ROK
CTMAS
SIN
CHLTHA
RPINA
(Source) Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (2006), “APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook”, Forthcoming
(Note) The outlook shown here includes tentative result subject to change.
Urbanisation and Residential Energy Demand in the Selected APEC Economies
Urban and Rural Residential Electricity Demand Per Person
Urbanisation
2003 2030 2003 2030
N. America 261 354 80% 87%
L. America 112 160 76% 84%
NEA Asia 146 159 71% 78%
SEA Asia 210 389 44% 63%
Oceania 22 29 76% 77%
China 504 878 39% 61%
Russia 105 94 73% 78%
APEC 1,360 2,063 52% 68%
Urban Population(Millions)
Share of UrbanPopulation
(Source) United Nations (2003), “Urban and Rural Areas” (Source) APERC Internal Database
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
China (2003) Philippines(1995)
Thailand (2003)
Resid
ential e
lectr
icity d
em
and
(kW
h p
er
pers
on)
Urban
Rural
Urban
Rural
Urban
Rural
Share of Sectoral Value Added by Region (2002 and 2030)
North America
1 0.8
22.7 19.5
76.3 79.7
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2002 2030
Latin America
4.7 2.7
28.928.2
66.4 69.1
2002 2030
Northeast Asia
1.7 1
29.8 30.9
68.5 68.1
2002 2030
Southeast Asia
15.29.9
4043.6
48.8 53.5
2002 2030
Oceania
3.4 3.2
27.4 26.1
70 71.8
2002 2030
China
16.8
6.8
47.2
49.6
36.143.6
2002 2030
Russia
16.8
6.8
47.2
49.6
36.143.6
2002 2030
Service
Industry
Agriculture
Increasing Share of Services Sector across the Region
(Source) Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (2006), “APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook”, Forthcoming
(Note) The outlook shown here includes tentative result subject to change.
(Note 2) Residential demand includes demand for electricity, gas, oil products, heat and biomass.
(Source) Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (2006), “APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook”, Forthcoming
(Note 1) The outlook shown here includes tentative result subject to change.
Commercial sector to grow at the fastest pace followed closely by industry and transportation sectors.
APEC Sectoral Energy Demand Outlook (2002-2030)
2002 2010 2020 2030 2002-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2002-2030
Industry 1407.1 1841.8 2288.6 2768.6 3.4% 2.2% 1.9% 2.4%
Transport 1090.0 1334.6 1675.3 2074.2 2.6% 2.3% 2.2% 2.3%
Commercial 383.4 471.9 609.0 777.5 2.6% 2.6% 2.5% 2.6%
Residential 871.8 960.8 1071.9 1199.7 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1%
Absolute Level (Unit:Mtoe) Annual Growth Rate
(Source) Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (2006), “APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook”, Forthcoming
(Note) The outlook shown here includes tentative result subject to change.
APEC Primary Energy Demand Outlook (2002-2030)
Coal to grow at the fastest pace, followed by natural gas.
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Mto
e
Oil Coal
Natural Gas Hydro
Nuclear Biomass and New Energy
Oil: 1.7% p.a.
Coal: 2.8% p.a.
Natural Gas:
2.0% p.a.
Hydro: 2.0% p.a.
Nuclear: 1.8% p.a.
Biomass and new
energy: 0.7% p.a.
Oil Import Dependency (2002-2030)
(Source) Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (2006), “APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook”, Forthcoming
(Note) The outlook shown here includes tentative result subject to change.
2002 2010 2020 2030
North America 55% 50% 54% 60%Latin America -73% -35% -27% -16%Northeast Asia 101% 100% 100% 100%Southeast Asia 21% 37% 56% 68%Oceania 25% 42% 55% 62%China 22% 39% 53% 68%Russia -167% -156% -139% -141%APEC 36% 38% 44% 52%
Rising oil import dependency in North America, Southeast Asia, Oceania, and China
Natural Gas Trade: LNG and PNG
(Source) Circum-Pacific Council (2005)
Electricity Generation in APEC (2002-2030, GWh)
Coal to remain the dominant share in generation
(Source) Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (2006), “APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook”, Forthcoming
(Note) The outlook shown here includes tentative result subject to change.
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
TW
h
Wind, Solar & Others
Geothermal
Hydro
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Oil-Based
Coal Steam
Biomass
Electricity Generation by Types
AGR
2002 2030 2002 2030 2002-2030Biomass 92 181 1.0% 1.2% 2.4%Coal Steam 4,029 8,078 43.8% 53.1% 2.5%Oil-Based 556 398 6.0% 1.4% -1.2%Nuclear 1,466 1,988 16.0% 11.6% 1.1%Natural Gas 1,665 3,149 18.1% 19.2% 2.3%Hydro 1,326 1,903 14.4% 11.3% 1.3%Geothermal 43 118 0.5% 0.9% 3.7%Wind, Solar & Others 14 186 0.1% 1.3% 9.8%Total 9,191 16,000 100.0% 100.0% 2.0%
TWh Share
(Source) Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (2006), “APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook”, Forthcoming
(Note) The outlook shown here includes tentative result subject to change.
NRE will grow at the fastest pace, while its share remains small.
Power Sector: Incremental Growth of Installed Capacity by Region and by Energy Type (2002-2030, GW)
(Source) Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (2006), “APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook”, Forthcoming
(Note) The outlook shown here includes tentative result subject to change.
-100
400
900
1,400
1,900
APEC NA LA NEA SEA OCE PRC RUS
Inst
all
ed
Cap
acit
y A
dd
itio
ns (
200
2-2
003,
GW
)
Wind, Solar &Others
Geothermal
Hydro
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Oil-Based
Coal Steam
Biomass
887GW
123GW
54GW
215GW209GW
92GW
396GW
1,978GW
APEC NA LA NEA SEA OCE PRC RUS
Annual Additions (2002-2030,GW)
70.7 14.1 3.3 7.5 7.7 1.9 31.7 4.4
Regional contribution to thetotal additions of installed
capacity in APEC100% 20% 5% 11% 11% 3% 45% 6%
Total Energy Investment Requirements 2003 – 2030, by Sector
Between 5.3 trillion USD to 6.7 trillion USDInvestment by sector, cumulative 2003-2030
High case
Coal production &transportation,
2.1%
Oil & Gasproduction &
processing , 18.0%
Oil & Gasinternational trade
, 9.1%
Oil & Gas domesticpipelines, 11.1%
Electricitygeneration &transmission,
59.7%
(Source) Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (2006), “APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook”, Forthcoming
(Note) The outlook shown here includes tentative result subject to change.
USA
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
1971 1980 1990 2002 2010 2020 2030
Ind
ex (
199
0=1
)
CO2/TPED TPED/GDP CO2
China
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1971 1980 1990 2002 2010 2020 2030
Ind
ex
(1
99
0=
1)
CO2/TPED TPED/GDP CO2
Kore a
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
1971 1980 1990 2002 2010 2020 2030
Ind
ex
(1
99
0=
1)
CO2/TP ED TP ED/GDP CO2
Japan
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1971 1980 1990 2002 2010 2020 2030
Ind
ex
(1
99
0=
1)
CO2/TPED TPED/GDP CO2
USA
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
1971 1980 1990 2002 2010 2020 2030
Ind
ex (
199
0=1
)
CO2/TPED TPED/GDP CO2
China
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
1971 1980 1990 2002 2010 2020 2030
Ind
ex
(1
99
0=
1)
CO2/TPED TPED/GDP CO2
Kore a
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
1971 1980 1990 2002 2010 2020 2030
Ind
ex
(1
99
0=
1)
CO2/TP ED TP ED/GDP CO2
Japan
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1971 1980 1990 2002 2010 2020 2030
Ind
ex
(1
99
0=
1)
CO2/TPED TPED/GDP CO2
Prospects: CO2 Emissions, Carbon Intensity and Energy Intensity
(Source) Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (2006), “APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook”, Forthcoming
Energy Intensity
Carbon Intensity
Energy Intensity
Carbon Intensity
Energy Intensity
Carbon Intensity
Carbon Intensity
Energy Intensity
Options for Reducing CO2 Emissions
C = (C/E)*(E/GDP)*GDP
Government’s Interest “constraining carbon
intensity while minimizing adverse affects on GDP growth”
Energy Intensity Big gap among economies
Industry structure Energy efficiency improvement
Technology Weather Life Style
Carbon Intensity Relatively small gap among
economies Continued reliance on fossil
fuels Oil for transportation Coal for power generation
Energy Intensity
Carbon Intensity
Prospects for Fuel Switching in APEC (2002-2030)
(Source) Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (2006), “APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook”, Forthcoming
(Note) The outlook shown here includes tentative result subject to change.
Limited potential for fuel switching.
26% 28% 30% 31% 31% 32% 32%
37% 36% 35% 35% 35% 35% 34%
21% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%7% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%8% 7% 7% 6% 6% 6% 5%
0%
0%
0% 0% 0% 0%
0%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2002 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Electricity
Biomass andNew Energy
Nuclear
Hydro
Natural Gas
Oil
Coal
• without externalities, coal is the cheapest option and NRE (except solar) are competitive to natural gas.
Leveraged Costs of Electricity Generation (Japan)
(Source) Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (2005), “Renewable Electricity in the APEC Region”
NRE Share: Externality Case and BAU Case
• With the application of externality to the cost of generation, almost half of the APEC member economies would have significant changes in generation structure.
Individual sensitivities of APEC member economies to the application of externality
Implications Limited potential for fuel switching
Increasing use of coal and damaging impact on local and global environment
Need for NRE to offset likely environmental impact from BAU
Potential to increase NRE in electricity generation Time to reflect environmental cost on price
Call for realistic commitments for the expansion of NRE from the International initiatives
APEC bio fuel task force UNFCCC Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate
New Project for 2006/2007 (provisional) Transportation energy: demand trend and new
supply options Urbanization Biofuel, NGV, Hybrid vehicles, and etc
APEC Energy Security in the 21st century: constraints and options
Resource constraints: conventional and NRE Input constraints: water, land(siting), public acceptance Human resources
International Energy Initiatives: fact and myth G8, APEC, UNFCCC, ASEAN, UNDP, OECD, AP6 and etc Origin, operation, impact and future
Recommended