Artificial Intelligence: Opportunity or threat?€¦ · McKinsey's State Of Machine Learning...

Artificial Intelligence: Opportunity or threat?

Jiří Vokřínek Centre for Artificial Intelligence

Department of Computer Science

FEE, CTU in Prague

I, Robot, e.conomia events, November 8, 2017

Are We Afraid?

• 1920 R.U.R.

• 1942 Asimov’s The Three Laws (of Robotics)

• 1968 Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?

(Blade Runner, 1982, 2017)

• 1997 Skynet (Terminator)

• 1999 Matrix

• … artificial beings are with us for ages in culture

Are We Afraid?

• 1920 R.U.R.

• 1942 Asimov’s The Three Laws (of Robotics)

• 1968 Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep?

(Blade Runner, 1982, 2017)

• 1997 Skynet (Terminator)

• 1999 Matrix

• … artificial beings are with us for ages in culture

1997 2007 2011 2015 2017

Chess Othello

Checkers

Jeopardy!

No-Limit Texas Hold’em Poker

Go

Artificial Intelligence is a family of technologies and scientific field that

allows/studies automation, acceleration and extreme scalability of

human perception, decision making and reasoning

A Narrow I → A Extended I → A General I → A Super I

A Narrow I → A Extended I → A General I → A Super I

What AI Is Technically?

• Machine learning & big data analysis

• Planning, sequential decision making, optimisation

• Game theory, combinatorial auctions, game playing

• Multiagent simulation and virtual/augmented reality

What AI Is Technically?

• Machine learning & big data analysis

• Planning, sequential decision making, optimisation

• Game theory, combinatorial auctions, game playing

• Multiagent simulation and virtual/augmented reality

What AI Is Technically?

• Machine learning & big data analysis

• Multiagent simulation and virtual/augmented reality

• Planning, sequential decision making, optimisation

• Game theory, combinatorial auctions, game playing

What AI Is Technically?

• Machine learning & big data analysis

• Multiagent simulation and virtual/augmented reality

• Planning, sequential decision making, optimisation

• Game theory, combinatorial auctions, game playing

What AI Is Technically?

• Machine learning & big data analysis

• Multiagent simulation and virtual/augmented reality

• Planning, sequential decision making, optimisation

• Game theory, combinatorial auctions, game playing

What AI Is Technically?

• Machine learning & big data analysis

• Multiagent simulation and virtual/augmented reality

• Planning, sequential decision making, optimisation

• Game theory, combinatorial auctions, game playing

3,287 extra lives every day | 1.3 million extra lives every year

101 minutes of extra time every day | 25.6 extra days every year

What AI Is Technically?

• Machine learning & big data analysis

• Multiagent simulation and virtual/augmented reality

• Planning, sequential decision making, optimisation

• Game theory, combinatorial auctions, game playing

What AI Is Technically?

• Machine learning & big data analysis

• Multiagent simulation and virtual/augmented reality

• Planning, sequential decision making, optimisation

• Game theory, combinatorial auctions, game playing

What AI Is Technically?

• Machine learning, data analysis → machine perception

• Multiagent simulation and virtual/augmented reality

• Planning, sequential decision making, optimisation

• Game theory, combinatorial auctions, game playing

What AI Is Technically?

• Machine learning, data analysis → machine perception

• Multiagent simulation and virtual/augmented reality

• Planning, sequential decision making, optimisation

• Game theory, combinatorial auctions, game playing

What AI Is Technically?

• Machine learning, data analysis

• Multiagent simulation and virtual/augmented reality

• Planning, sequential decision making, optimisation

• Game theory, combinatorial auctions, game playing

What AI Is Technically?

• Machine learning, data analysis

• Multiagent simulation and virtual/augmented reality

• Planning, sequential decision making, optimisation

• Game theory, combinatorial auctions, game playing

2017 AI Success Stories: Examples

McKinsey's State Of Machine Learning And AI, 2017

• total spent in AI by tech giants in 2016:

McKinsey's State Of Machine Learning And AI, 2017

• total spent in AI by tech giants in 2016: $20B - $30B

McKinsey's State Of Machine Learning And AI, 2017

• total spent in AI by tech giants in 2016: $20B - $30B

– internal R&D | – acquisitions

McKinsey's State Of Machine Learning And AI, 2017

• total spent in AI by tech giants in 2016: $20B - $30B

– internal R&D 90% | – acquisitions 10%

McKinsey's State Of Machine Learning And AI, 2017

• total spent in AI by tech giants in 2016: $20B - $30B

– internal R&D 90% | – acquisitions 10%

• total spent in AI by startups 2016:

McKinsey's State Of Machine Learning And AI, 2017

• total spent in AI by tech giants in 2016: $20B - $30B

– internal R&D 90% | – acquisitions 10%

• total spent in AI by startups 2016: $6B - $9B

McKinsey's State Of Machine Learning And AI, 2017

• total spent in AI by tech giants in 2016: $20B - $30B

– internal R&D 90% | – acquisitions 10%

• total spent in AI by startups 2016: $6B - $9B

• total external investment in AI in 2016:

McKinsey's State Of Machine Learning And AI, 2017

• total spent in AI by tech giants in 2016: $20B - $30B

– internal R&D 90% | – acquisitions 10%

• total spent in AI by startups 2016: $6B - $9B

• total external investment in AI in 2016: $8B - $12B

McKinsey's State Of Machine Learning And AI, 2017

• total spent in AI by tech giants in 2016: $20B - $30B

– internal R&D 90% | – acquisitions 10%

• total spent in AI by startups 2016: $6B - $9B

• total external investment in AI in 2016: $8B - $12B

– machine learning

McKinsey's State Of Machine Learning And AI, 2017

• total spent in AI by tech giants in 2016: $20B - $30B

– internal R&D 90% | – acquisitions 10%

• total spent in AI by startups 2016: $6B - $9B

• total external investment in AI in 2016: $8B - $12B

– 60% machine learning

McKinsey's State Of Machine Learning And AI, 2017

• total spent in AI by tech giants in 2016: $20B - $30B

– internal R&D 90% | – acquisitions 10%

• total spent in AI by startups 2016: $6B - $9B

• total external investment in AI in 2016: $8B - $12B

– 60% machine learning

• AI spent: geographical distribution

McKinsey's State Of Machine Learning And AI, 2017

• total spent in AI by tech giants in 2016: $20B - $30B

– internal R&D 90% | – acquisitions 10%

• total spent in AI by startups 2016: $6B - $9B

• total external investment in AI in 2016: $8B - $12B

– 60% machine learning

• AI spent: geographical distribution

– US 66% | – China 17% | – rest of the world 17%

• CyberSecurity

• Transport & Logistics

• Internet of Things

• Home & Buildings & Cities

• Manufacturing

• Virtual & Augmented Reality

• Journalism & Automated Content

• Fintech, Insurance, Legal

• Medicine

• Education

Artificial Intelligence 2017 - 2027

Next BIG thing in AI:

Next BIG thing in AI: AI Explainability

credit DARPA

Next BIG thing in AI: Simulated Worlds

Challenges of AI in 2020 and Beyond

1. AI Monopoly & Manipulation

2. Security and Privacy

3. Regulation and Oversight

4. Jobs and Social System

Up to 47 percent of jobs in 20 years will go, 3.8 million US jobs are related to driving

AI would replace: 83% of jobs paying < $20/hour and 4% of jobs paying >$40/hour

Opportunity or threat?