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Assessment of Atmospheric Pollution in the Asia-Pacific: Science-based Solutions
Key findings
Markus Amann
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
47th Session of the Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling, Brescia, May 8-9, 2018
POLICY INTERVENTIONS HELPED TO BREAK THE HISTORIC LINKAGEBETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EMISSIONS IN ASIA
Source: IIASA, GAINS
IN 2015, AIR QUALITY STANDARDS
WERE EXCEEDED OVER LARGE AREAS IN ASIA
AMBIENT PM2.5 IN 2015
Source: IIASA, GAINS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2015 2030
Mea
n ex
posu
re [µ
g/m
3PM
2.5]
Exposure from human activitiesNatural sources
WHOguideline
WHOtarget 1
FURTHER AIR QUALITY IMPROVEMENTS IN ASIAREQUIRE A RE-ORIENTATION OF CURRENT POLICIES
Measures already in place in 2015• Vehicle emission standards• TSP(+SO2+NOx) controls at large plants
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2015 2030
Mea
n ex
posu
re [µ
g/m
3PM
2.5]
WHOguideline
WHOtarget 1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2015 2030
Mea
n ex
posu
re [µ
g/m
3PM
2.5]
WHOguideline
WHOtarget 1
Post-2015 legislation• SO2+NOx controls at stationary sources
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2015 2030
Mea
n ex
posu
re [µ
g/m
3PM
2.5]
WHOguideline
WHOtarget 1
Conventional PM controls
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2015 2030
Mea
n ex
posu
re [µ
g/m
3PM
2.5]
WHOguideline
WHOtarget 1
‘Next stage’ air quality measures• Fertilizer use, manure management• Open burning of waste and biomass• Forest fires, I&M of vehicles
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2015 2030
Mea
n ex
posu
re [µ
g/m
3PM
2.5]
WHOguideline
WHOtarget 1
Development measures• Clean cooking fuels, renewable energy• Energy efficiency, waste management• Public transport and electric vehicles
Mean population exposure to PM2.5
THESE MEASURES CAN PROVIDE CLEAN AIRTO ONE BILLION PEOPLE
Source: IIASA, GAINS
0 1 2 3 4
2015
< WHO Guideline (10µg/m3) < WHO Target 1 (35µg/m3)
35-50 µg/m3 50-65 µg/m3
65-80 µg/m3 >80 µg/m3
People exposed to household pollution
Billion people exposed to PM2.5 concentrations
0 1 2 3 4
2015
Currentlegislation
2030
< WHO Guideline (10µg/m3) < WHO Target 1 (35µg/m3)
35-50 µg/m3 50-65 µg/m3
65-80 µg/m3 >80 µg/m3
People exposed to household pollution
Billion people exposed to PM2.5 concentrations
0 1 2 3 4
2015
Currentlegislation
2030
Top 25Clean AirMeasures
2030
< WHO Guideline (10µg/m3) < WHO Target 1 (35µg/m3)
35-50 µg/m3 50-65 µg/m3
65-80 µg/m3 >80 µg/m3
People exposed to household pollution
Billion people exposed to PM2.5 concentrations
0
2
4
6
8
10
Redu
ctio
n of
pop
ulat
ion
expo
sure
to P
M2.
5in
2030
(µg
/m3 )
THE PRIORITY MEASURES DIFFER ACROSS REGIONS,DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN ECONOMIC STRUCTURES AND GEO-PHYSICAL CONDITIONS
Source: IIASA, GAINS
2015 measures CLE measures Further potential
East Asia - Exposure reduction potential (µg/m3)
02468
1012141618
South Asia
INEQUALITIES OF POLLUTIONINDIA - 2010
LOW INCOME
HIGH INCOME
HEALTH BURDEN
LOW INCOME
HIGH INCOME
EMISSIONS
HEALTH BURDEN
LOW INCOME
HIGH INCOME
EMISSIONS
HEALTH BURDEN
EXPENDITURES FOR ENERGY(% OF INCOME)
Source: Kiesewetter et al., 2018
INCOME GROUPS
Conventional controlsrelative to 2030 baseline 0% 0% -8%
‘Next stage’ measuresrelative to 2030 baseline
0% -29% -56%
Developmentmeasuresrelative to 2030 baseline
-19% -44% -72%
THE TOP 25 CLEAN AIR MEASURES ALSO AFFECT CLIMATE FORCERS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2015 2030
Mea
n ex
posu
re [µ
g/m
3PM
2.5]
WHOguideline
WHOtarget 1
Mean population exposure to PM2.5
Climate forcers SDG
CO2 CH4 BC benefits
Current legislationrelative to 2015*) +16% +17% -24%
THE DEVELOPMENT MEASURES COULD REDUCE GLOBALTEMPERATURE INCREASE BY ONE THIRD DEGREE
-0.6
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
Currentlegislation
Conventionalmeasures
+'Next generation'measures
+Developmentmeasures
Diffe
renc
e in
glo
bal m
ean
tem
pera
ture
in 2
050
rela
tive
to b
asel
ine
(°C)
Other air pollutants SLCPs (CH4+BC+HFC) CO2 Net change
THE TOP 25 MEASURES COULD SLOW DOWN GLOBAL TEMPERATUREINCREASE IN THE NEAR-TERM
-0.5
-0.4
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Diffe
renc
e in
glo
bal m
ean
tem
pera
ture
in 2
050
rela
tive
to b
asel
ine
(°C)
Other air pollutants SLCPs (CH4+BC+HFC) CO2 Net change
Conventional controlsrelative to 2030 baseline 0% 0% -8%
‘Next stage’ measuresrelative to 2030 baseline
0% -29% -56%
Developmentmeasuresrelative to 2030 baseline
-19% -44% -72%
THE NEW POLICY MEASURES WOULD HAVE IMPORTANTCO-BENEFITS ON SDGS
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2015 2030
Mea
n ex
posu
re [µ
g/m
3PM
2.5]
WHOguideline
WHOtarget 1
Mean population exposure to PM2.5
Climate forcers SDG
CO2 CH4 BC benefits
Current legislationrelative to 2015*) +16% +17% -24%
Key messages
• While current policies limit a further increase of emissions in Asia, they will not be sufficient to significantly improve air quality.
• To move towards the Air Quality Standards, measures that involve other sectors (agriculture, energy, waste management, etc.) will be indispensable.
• The Top 25 Clean Air Measures will deliver a wide range of health- and other development benefits and reduce pollutants that influence temperature increase and climate.
• Integrated multi-approaches (such as in the LRTAP Convention) could embed air quality measures in the development agendas, and offer powerful incentives for measures that serve the global goods.
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